Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 31st

2018-05-31 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on May 31st), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybean closed overnight trading lower for an escalating trade tension between China and the US attracted more speculative money into market. Correspondingly, meals futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange today come off low opens, soybean meal spots domestically also price down, and turnover is still light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,850 to 2,960 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,950 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,950-2,970 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,950-2,970 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,900-2,910 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,860-2,900 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,830-2,850 yuan/tonne). No doubt, appetite for soybean meal is still not kindled when pigs raising is not promising amid great losses despite a series of rallies earlier, additionally, accumulating stocks also weigh on meals prices. Notwithstanding, increased import costs for Brazil soybeans after truckers strike would help to support US soybeans, saying soybean basis bids hit a eight-day high. Meantime, as most mills in Shandong province stop operation about 13 days for SCO Summit, meals stocks are to be consumed. Generally speaking, soybean meal prices have limitation to fall and may move sideways frequently tracking futures amid crushers' support provided if weather speculation for US soybean growing areas in mid-to-late June heats up. Wisely, buyers are suggested to wait and see and make replenishment when it goes stable. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices down, where prices in coastal areas stay at 2,380-2,450 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 30-60 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,390 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,450 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,450 yuan/tonne). Narrowed price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, sufficiently large soybean and rapeseed at ports, new rapeseed to supply the market in most areas nationwide havor over rapeseed meal. Generally speaking, rapeseed meal shorter term is to move sideways tracking futures, therefore market participants should fix their eyes on China-US talks onwards. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 44,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 29th, about 2,593,831 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 78.21% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 722,869 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Given some fishmeal of good quality on the domestic market is not much especially when stockpiles at ports keep declining fractionally, fishmeal domestically is fueled, all in all, fishmeal performance shorter term goes stable. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,550-3,730 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,610 yuan/tonne from yesterday. As the United States announced its statement to impose a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods, US soybeans in response slid in overnight trading. The final list of covered imports will be announced by June 15, 2018. China's importers therefore have strong mindset to support prices for the escalating trade spat will somehow boost domestic market. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.042 Mln tonnes with total 141 vessels in May, 9.4 Mln tonnes in June, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July. Though bearish pressure hovers over imported soybeans attributed greatly to the ample supply, on the whole, imported soybeans for the moment will move on in a steady pace mainly. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans and soybean meal overnight declined further as a follow-up technical selling came into sight after a technical recession in Tuesday closing trade amid worrisome trade tensions between the US and China, the largest soybean importer. While, rallying crude oil still boosted soybean oil. Correspondingly, oils on DCE move sideways after early gains and domestically, soybean oil spots trade up mostly despite some declines and palm oil spots also price up partly. Total turnover is still not much though some lower prices do attract deals. Rapeseed oil is now on a strong note, driven by capital flows, especially when state reserves are basically out of stock. Such bullish factors help to bolster soybean oil and palm oil futures. Additionally, ongoing bloated soybean meal and scheduled machine halt in most Shandong mills for the sake of SCO Summit underpin oils amid crushers' support. But once SCO Summit is over, operation rate will be improved based on as high as 27.7 Mln tonnes of soybean arrivals during May-to-July period. That may weigh on oils performance, therefore market participants are actually not optimistic about the market later. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,640-5,800 yuan/tonne, most of which increase by 10-30 yuan/tonne, yet few decrease by 30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,730-5,740 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,700 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,800 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,640-5,650 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,000 and 5,110 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30-40 yuan/tonne in part (Tianjin traders offer 5,110 yuan/tonne, up 40 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P1809+70; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,100 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,000 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,150 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,790-6,930 yuan/tonne, increasing by 170-200 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200, Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Rapeseed oil futures continue to lead on the domestic oils market for large speculative funds flow in when state reserves almost run out of rapeseed oil. However, turnover of rapeseed meal is rather pale these days when price gap between rapeseed oil and soybean oil expands to 1,000 yuan/tonne. Furthermore, seeing sufficiently large arrivals of imported soybeans, rapeseed and rapeseed oil, new rapeseed supplying in most areas nationwide, risks for chasing bids high will be great after impressive rallies in rapeseed oil. Therefore, buyers had better not chase bids high and stay on the sidelines if they have stocks at hand. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, most domestic corn prices steadily where some are mixed. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating fractionally. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,730 yuan/tonne, and 1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn, both unchanged from yesterday. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn (moisture 14.5%, volume weight 720-740 g/L); 1,620-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4), down 20 yuan/tonne upon the lowest price from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn supply is sufficiently ample on the market as corn auction is a normality, saying around 8 Mln tonnes of corn are to auction next week (June 7th-8th), and there being said, grains supplying keep larger and larger when some traders step up grains selling to leave room for barley seeing approaching barley harvest in North China and Huanghuai areas from south to the north. Otherwise, given businesses in the downstream take a more cautious approach toward grain buying, corn demand in end users is still sluggish. Whereas, gains of good quality are short of supply on the market, such being the case, corn prices shorter term are supported and move stable amid narrowed volatility for corn of good quality has the advantage in auction and freight costs in northeastern areas are also on the rise amid logistic tension the time market has rigid demand for good quality.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum at ports are mixed, among which US sorghum prices basically come into at 1,880-2,080 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,080 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,930-1,950 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne, being flat; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,240-2,280 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne, being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne upon loading; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000; Jilin 2,720 yuan/tonne; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne, all being flat). Prices for Australian barley keep steady at about 1,800-2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,810 yuan/tonne, all being flat; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne). Feed consumption in end users shows little sighs to go apparently better for one thing that pigs raising remains low amid heavy losses and for another that businesses have little interest to buy when they have assured ample supplies. As stocks consumption at ports is quite low when wineries gradually require maintenance during July and August period, grain at ports is also under pressure. Uncertainty in US-China trade spat again lurks on the market after the U.S. unexpectedly rekindles its additional tariffs on Chinese products. Higher costs later would still give support to the market and limit grain declines especially when importers in the early days mostly order grain of high prices. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.40)