Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on June 1st

2018-06-01 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on June 1st), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans on Chicago Board of Trade further ended low last night under the impact of persisting trade spat, while soybean meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange today picks up mildly. Domestically, soybean meal spots vibrate in a steady pace in line with futures today, yet turnover is not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,860 to 2,980 yuan/tonne, a steady fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,980 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,940-2,970 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,950-2,980 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,900-2,910 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,870-2,910 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,840-2,850 yuan/tonne). Soybean basis in Brazil notches the highest in eight days when striking truckers there contribute to increased import costs for Brazil soybeans. Meantime, as most mills in Shandong province suspend operation about 13 days for SCO Summit, meals stocks are to be consumed amid crushers' support for meals prices. Generally speaking, soybean meal prices otherwise have limitation to fall and mainly trade sideways frequently tracking futures given heavy stockpiles onwards. Pigs raising is still at loss when price cuts in pigs come again this week, and that the pile-up of meals will continue when operation rate is resumed after SCO Summit based on as high as 9.54 Mln tonnes of soybean arrivals in June. Market attention should still goes to weather condition in US growing areas for a possible weather speculation in mid-to-late June will easily bolster meals prices. Wisely, buyers are suggested to wait and see and make replenishment when it goes stable. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal edges down, where prices in coastal areas stay at 2,370-2,450 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 10 yuan/tonne in part (Guangxi offers 2,380 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,450 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,450 yuan/tonne, being flat). Narrowed price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, assured operation rate based on large rapeseed and soybean at ports-- as high as 36.7 Mln tonnes soybean projected during May-to-August period, new rapeseed to supply the domestic market in most areas now overwhelm and drag down rapeseed meal. Generally speaking, rapeseed meal shorter term is to move sideways tracking futures, therefore buyers are recommended to replenish goods when prices go stable. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 44,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Holders at China's ports have strong mindset to support fishmeal prices for its stable offers in the outer, additionally, slightly sapping stockpiles at ports also give favorable support to fishmeal market, such being the case, fishmeal is to remain stable for the time being. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,550-3,730 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,610 yuan/tonne from yesterday. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.042 Mln tonnes with total 141 vessels in May, 2018 9.4 Mln tonnes in June, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July. Though bearish pressure hovers over imported soybeans attributed greatly to the ample supply, escalating trade tension between China and the US actually bolsters domestic market and builds up Chinese traders' support for soybeans prices, thus underpinning soybeans imported. on the whole, imported soybeans for the moment will move on in a steady pace mainly. 

    Daily review on oils: surpassed by technical selling, US soybean and soybean meal were seen charting three consecutive days of declines when speculative commodity investors also show great concerns for US soybean exports in the mist of global trade dispute, there being said, US soybean oil also plummeted after early gains. Accordingly, oils on DCE today continue to move sideways, soybean oil and palm oil spots on the domestic market price down partly, and turnover is still not much. Ongoing bloated soybean meal and scheduled machine halt in most Shandong mills for the sake of SCO Summit underpin oils performance. But once SCO Summit is over, operation rate will be resumed based on as high as 9.54 Mln tonnes of soybean arrivals in June. That may weigh on oils if stockpiles of soybean oil pile up. On the whole, oils spots mainly trade sideways frequently amid great uncertainty in US-China trade relations, therefore, market participants had better take a light position level. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,610-5,800 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,720-5,730 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,680 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,800 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,610-5,620 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,010 and 5,090 yuan/tonne, most down10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,080-5,090 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,080 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,010 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao and Xiamen traders stop to quote). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil slip, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,740-6,880 yuan/tonne, dropping by 50-120 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200, Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Affected by the transformation of consumption pattern and available alternatives, rapeseed oil gradually goes into off-season period. No doubt, turnover of rapeseed meal recently is rather pale when price gap between rapeseed oil and soybean oil expands to 1,000 yuan/tonne. Furthermore, given sufficiently large arrivals of imported soybeans-- about 9.54 Mln tonnes in June, rapeseed and rapeseed oil, new rapeseed supplying in most areas nationwide, rapeseed oil prices down in line with futures and trade sideways frequently onwards. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some further down 4-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,730 yuan/tonne, and 1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn, both unchanged from yesterday. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture = 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn (moisture 14.5%, volume weight 720-740 g/L); 1,600-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4), all unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Sales pressure on old grain is still considerable for only 30 percent of grain auctioned is traded even though corn auction becomes a normality, and there being said, grains supplying keep larger and larger when some traders step up grains selling to leave room for barley seeing approaching barley harvest in North China and Huanghuai areas from south to the north. Otherwise, businesses in the downstream take a more cautious approach toward grain buying when outlook of feed industry is not such promising, corn demand thereby in end users is still sluggish. Whereas, gains of good quality are short of supply on the market, such being the case, corn prices shorter term are supported and move stable amid narrowed volatility for corn of good quality has the advantage in auction and freight costs in northeastern areas are also on the rise amid logistic tension the time market has rigid demand for good quality. Wisely, traders had better take a rational approach toward corn auction and keep an eye on the auction onwards amid its risks and uncertainties. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today,  prices for imported sorghum at ports keep firm, among which US sorghum prices basically come into at 1,880-2,080 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,080 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,930-1,950 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne, all being flat; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,240-2,280 yuan/tonne; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne, both being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Jilin 2,720 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, all being flat). Prices for Australian barley keep steady at about 1,800-2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,810 yuan/tonne, all being flat; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne). Feed consumption in end users shows little signs to go apparently better for one thing that pigs raising remains low amid heavy losses and for another that businesses have little interest to buy when they have assured ample supplies. Therefore stocks consumption at ports is quite lows the time wineries gradually suspend operation in the production cycle. Generally, importers would like to stand on the sidelines considering such capricious policies on grain imports. Yet, higher costs later would still give support to the market. Grain prices today keep firm and shorter term will probably move downward, therefore market participants may as well take latest news for guidance. 

 (USD $1=CNY 6.42)