Comment: as most mills in Shandong province suspend operation during May 30th and June 11th period for the sake of SCO Summit, operation rate no doubt declines, consequently, soybeans continue to pile up this week amid large soybean arrivals. Till June 1st, stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas amount to 5,796,500 tonnes, further up 425,600 tonnes by 7.92% from 5,370,900 tonnes on the week, and up 17.45% from 4,935,100 tonnes vis-a-vis the same week year on year. In general, soybean would further pile up in stockpiles based on large soybean arrivals under way and basically unchanged processing capacity next week.

    While soybean meal production is downsized in wake of lowered weekly crush, on the point, stockpiles are also seen falling. Till June 1st, total stocks in costal major areas come in at 1,100,600 tonnes, down 55,500 tonnes by 4.80% from 1,156,100 tonnes last week, and as compared with 1,157,500 tonnes the prior year, stocks also decrease by 4.91%. Generally speaking, stockpiles of soybean meal will fall further in stockpiles if soybean crush reaches a relatively low level of 1.64 Mln tonnes. 

    Soybean meal to fulfill in contracts rises substantially given one month is added to the contracts when this week extents to June. This week ended June 1st, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts rise to 6,774,500 tonnes, up 922,900 tonnes by 15.77% as compared with 5,851,600 tonnes attained last week, and also up 28.95% as opposed to 4,813,200 tonnes year on year. 

                  Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

            Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

         Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years