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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on June 5th

2018-06-05 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on June 5th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans slumped overnight attributed to good weather conditions and worrisome trade spat, accordingly, meals on DCE today expand declines. Domestic soybean meal spots are also weighed down with futures today, yet turnover is still light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,840 to 2,950 yuan/tonne, down 20-40 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,950 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,920-2,950 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,940-2,950 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,880-2,900 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,840-2,900 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,840-2,880 yuan/tonne). After the SCO Summit, soybean crush will soon recover based on large soybean arrival in mid-June. Yet, heavy stockpiles still weigh on soybean meal-- national stockpiles rise to 1.21 Mln tonnes by 2.5% on the week, when pork prices move sideways amid losses in pigs raising. Weather speculation for US soybeans growth will also go frequently, especially in mid-to-late June, for another two major soybean exporters are now in trouble, that is, increased import costs and soaring basis of Brazilian soybeans attributed to truckers' strike and grave production losses of Argentine soybeans. Notably, there was still no significant progress in negotiations between China and the United States over the weekend, and if the agreement cannot be reached in time, trade tension will be heated up and the proposed tariffs will come into effect after the US publicizes its lists on June 15th. Therefore, market participants had better not hold an absolutely bearish attitude toward soybean meal prices in the after market for a series of possible rallies may come back. Wisely, buyers may as well stand on the sidelines, and make proper replenishment when prices go stable. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal price down, where prices in coastal areas stay at 2,350-2,450 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 20-30 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,320 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,420 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,450 yuan/tonne, being flat). Narrowed price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal suppress demand for rapeseed meal though stocks of rapeseed meal and soybean meal both keep accumulating. In addition, probably improved operation rate later based on large rapeseed and soybean at ports, and intensive supply of domestic new rapeseed weigh on meals performance. To be specific, soybean arrivals in June and July will possibly reach 9.5 Mln tonnes on average and rapeseed arrivals with 0.44 Mln tonnes on average. Notwithstanding, promising demand for meals in aquatic raising, possibly fierce weather speculation and bullish factors for domestic market amid trade spat may somehow give the support to its market and limit its declines. Generally speaking, rapeseed meal shorter term is to move sideways narrowly tracking futures. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 42,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till June 3rd, about 2,786,118 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 84% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 530,582 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Such favorable factors now hover over fishmeal market as smooth fishing with more than 80% finished, stable offers in the outer and higher costs of new-season fishmeal at ports, in the case, fishmeal is to remain stable shorter term. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,550-3,730 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,610 yuan/tonne from yesterday. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.042 Mln tonnes with total 141 vessels in May, 2018 9.4 Mln tonnes in June, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July. Though bearish pressure hovers over imported soybeans attributed greatly to the ample supply, Given Shandong and Tianjin ports step up impurities inspection for US soybeans, imported soybeans for distribution on the market are stalled and are possibly weighed down in the near future. As U.S. soybeans enter the critical period of growth in the mid-to-late June, weather speculation therewith may be fierce amid surprising soybean reduction in Argentina. Notably, no substantial progress was made between US-China talks over the weekend, and if it goes forward, trade tensions will be heated up especially when the US implements its proposed tariffs on Chinese goods after June 15th. That will no doubt give favorable support to market of imported soybean. 

    Daily review on oils: subject to favorable weather conditions in crops growing areas and worrisome China-US trade outlook, US soybeans slumped last night. Soaring stockpiles of rapeseed oil not only send its futures low on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, but also greatly drag down soybean oil and palm oil futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Domestically, soybean oil and palm oil spots price down in line with futures, yet turnover is not much. Albeit oilseeds processing rate is lowered last week in time of SCO Summit, fragile demand for soybean oil actually sends its stockpiles up to 1.34 Mln tonnes. Generally, with the end of the Summit, operation rate will be lifted based on as high as average 9.5 Mln tonnes of soybean arrivals in June and July, if such, supply pressure will be enlarged. Shorter term, oils spots will probably trade downward tracking futures factored in overall poor oils fundamentals like dim export outlook of Malaysian palm oil. Therefore, market participants had better stand on the sidelines and fix their eyes on the ongoing trade spat, for oils on the domestic market will be bolstered and furled if the tension is heated up. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,630-5,760 yuan/tonne, down 20-100 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,710-5,720 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,700 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,760 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,630 yuan/tonne).  

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,970 and 5,040 yuan/tonne, most declining by 50-90 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,030-5,040 yuan/tonne, a drop of 70 yuan/tonne; Rizhao offer 5,090 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,030 yuan/tonne, a decline of 90 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,970 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders have not reported). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil slump impressively, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,590-6,700 yuan/tonne, down 120-180 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200, Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Accumulating stockpiles of rapeseed oil and soybean oil put rapeseed oil performance under pressure, in detail, rapeseed oil in East China and South China climbs to 230,000 tonnes by 22% and 70,000 tonnes by 12% on the week, respectively. As import margins for Canada's rapeseed oil turn lucrative, Chinese importers show high enthusiasm in buying, that is to say, operation rate will also be lifted based on such sufficiently larges soybeans, rapeseed and rapeseed oil of imports in the months ahead. Furthermore, domestic new rapeseed is now supplying in most areas, and rapeseed oil prices today pare gains. Shorter term, rapeseed oil may be revised downwardly to offset former impressive rallies, therefore, buyers had better stand by. 

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, most domestic corn prices remain stable where some are a tad lower. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some further down 4-6 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,730 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), and 1,705 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L) for old corn, down 5 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn (moisture 14.5%, volume weight 720-740 g/L); 1,600-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4). Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, unchanged from yesterday. In view of large supply of grain auctioned, businesses in the downstream take a more cautious approach toward grain buying when outlook of feed industry is not such promising, corn demand thereby in end users is still sluggish. Whereas, grain of year 2017 basically reach the bottom, especially for grain of good quality, such being the case, corn prices shorter term are hard to fall or rise, and may probably move sideways around the range given corn of good quality has the advantage in auction and freight costs in northeastern areas are also on the rise amid logistic tension the time market has rigid demand for good quality.  

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum prices at ports continue to drop, among which US sorghum prices basically come into at 1,820-2,080 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,080 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,930-1,950 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,240-2,280 yuan/tonne; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne, both being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Jilin 2,720 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, all being flat). Prices for Australian barley keep steady amid some declines, ranging from 1,800 to 2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Jiangyin 1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,790-1,800 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne; French barley: Nantong 1,870 yuan/tonne). Feed consumption in end users shows little signs to go better for one thing that prices for pork remain low amid sluggish pigs raising and for another that increasing supply of germinant wheat may squeeze out feed demand for domestic corn. On this point, stocks consumption at ports is quite low the time wineries gradually suspend operation in the production cycle and businesses have little buying enthusiasm. Whereas, importers mostly order grain of higher prices in early stage, that is to say, higher costs would still somehow give support to the market. Grain prices shorter term will probably move downward, therefore market participants may as well take latest news for guidance. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.40)