Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on June 7th

2018-06-07 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on June 7th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans overnight terribly fell below 1,000 cents mark as good weather condition boosted production outlook of US soybeans, and record-high export of Brazilian soybeans basically squeezed out US soybeans on the market. Accordingly, meals on DCE today continue to trade down, with which domestic soybean meal spots come down, and turnover of soybean meal is still not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,820 to 2,900 yuan/tonne, down 20-40 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,900 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,860-2,900 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,890-2,900 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,850-2,870 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,820-2,840 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,820-2,840 yuan/tonne). Oilseeds operation rate will soon rise steeply based on considerable soybean arrivals at ports when SCO Summit comes to an end in mid-June. Yet, heavy stockpiles still weigh on soybean meal when pigs raising is in the red, and therefore soybean meal prices shorter term are to move sideways tracking futures. Worthy of noticing, trade spat between two largest economists still go forward, and though China agrees to import another 7 Mln tonnes of US products each year on condition that the US removes its additional tariff threats on Chinese good, no comment or reply is receive from the U.S. administration. As U.S. soybeans enter the critical period in the mid-to-late June, weather speculation therewith may be common amid grave soybean reduction in Argentina. US soybeans will be on a strong note in the long term but relatively weak in the near, such being the case, market participants had better not go too far if holding a bearish attitude toward the market. With time going by, if no agreement is reached between two largest economists, trade tensions in between will go escalating after the U.S. publicizes its lists on June 15th. Wisely, buyers may as well stand on the sidelines, and make proper replenishment when prices go stable in case of rallying meals prices afterwards. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,300-2,400 yuan/tonne, falling 20-50 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,300 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,380 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,400 yuan/tonne, falling 50 yuan/tonne). Fairly narrowed price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal dwarfs demand for rapeseed meal. As a consequence, there is almost no trade of rapeseed meal these days. In addition, probably improved operation rate based on large rapeseed and soybean at ports, and intensive supply of domestic new rapeseed weigh on meals performance. Whereas, with hot days coming, recovered demand for meals in golden-time aquatic raising to come may somehow give the support, to illustrate, demand in aquatic raising may increase by 5-10% if margins turn better. Whereas, the trade spat between the two largest economists is still worrisome, and if trade spat goes severer after June 15th, meals on the domestic market are to be fueled and be limited to fall further amid crushers' support for the prices. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 41,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till June 5th, about 2,862,369 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 86.3% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 454,331 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. In recent days, port stocks have declined in wake of good sales and not many port arrivals of new-season fishmeal. Consequently, holders show great support for the prices when offers in the outer go steady, in the case, fishmeal is to remain stable shorter term.  

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,550-3,730 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,610 yuan/tonne from yesterday. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.127 Mln tonnes with total 142 vessels in May, 2018, a tad higher than 9.042 Mln tonnes attained in last estimates, 9.5495 Mln tonnes in June, higher than last estimates of 9.4 Mln tonne, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July, which poses bearish pressure on market of imported soybeans. Though bearish pressure hovers over imported soybeans attributed greatly to the ample supply, Given Shandong and Tianjin ports step up impurities inspection for US soybeans, imported soybeans for distribution on the market are stalled in market transaction. However, U.S. President Trump posted his statement on Twitter this Monday that China has already imposed a 16% tax on US soybeans. That sends the cost of U.S. soybean to a higher level and boosts its performance on the market amid port traders' strong support for the prices. In general, soybeans of imports will move sideways steadily and narrowly when the market is intertwined. And as U.S. soybeans enter the critical period of growth in the mid-to-late June, weather speculation therewith may be common amid sharp soybean reduction in Argentina.  

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans last night terribly fell below 1,000 cents mark, attributed to promising outlook of US soybean production under good weather condition and overwhelming Brazilian soybean exports over US soybeans. Accordingly, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange slip mildly, with which soybean oil and palm oil spots price down, and turnover of oils is still light. Oilseeds operation rate will rise steeply based on large soybean arrivals at ports after SCO Summit. Therefore, fragile fundamentals like sky-high stockpiles of soybean oil still put pressure on oils spots. Albeit China proposes to purchase nearly 70 billion U.S. dollars of agricultural products and energy from the United States on the premise that the U.S. will abandon its tariffs levied on China, trade spat between China and the U.S. under way is still full of uncertainty, especially when the final decision of US publicized lists about taxation is approaching. Generally speaking, oils futures have resistance to fall further and oils spots shorter term may probably trade sideways with futures when weather speculation comes into US soybeans. Buyers are recommended to stand on the sideways or take a light position level factored in languishing oils performance. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,590-5,700 yuan/tonne, most down 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,640-5,650 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,660 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders Y1809-60, Guangzhou traders 5,590-5,600 yuan/tonne).  

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 4,940 to 5,080 yuan/tonne, most falling 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,020-5,030 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,080 yuan/tonne, being flat; Zhangjiagang traders P1809+50; Guangzhou traders 4,940 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,060 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop marginally, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,560-6,670 yuan/tonne, down 10-30 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200, Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Market news goes that approximately 0.4 Mln tonnes of soybean oil and rapeseed oil reserved and around 2 Mln tonnes of soybeans will be auctioned in June. If such, rapeseed oil is to price down in line with futures shorter term in light of sufficiently larges soybeans, rapeseed and rapeseed oil of imports in the months ahead and ample supplying of domestic new rapeseed already on the market. Notwithstanding, there are still lingering nerves about the trade spat, and if trade spat goes severer when the US administration announces its proposed lists after June 15th, rapeseed oil on the domestic market is to be bolstered and capped to fall further. Wisely, buyers had better stand by. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, and some are a tad lower than yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,730 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), and 1,705 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn (moisture 14.5%, volume weight 720-740 g/L); 1,600-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4). Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, unchanged from yesterday. As of June 7th, nearly 42.1 Mln tonnes of corn auctioned have transacted, and accordingly, only 14 Mln tonnes have been delivered and about 28.1 Mln tonnes are left to be delivered. Albeit grain supply become greater and greater as corn auction becomes a normality-- another 8 Mln tonnes to be auctioned next week, general feed demand in the downstream and hand-to-mouth buying strategy taken in most deep processors still weigh down corn prices. Whereas, grain of good quality are basically short of supply, such being the case, corn prices shorter term are limited to fall, and may probably move sideways narrowly given delivery costs give the support.  

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum prices at ports turn stable, among which US sorghum prices basically come into at 1,820-2,080 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,080 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,930-1,950 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,240-2,280 yuan/tonne; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, Hebei 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, all being flat). Prices for Australian barley keep steady, ranging from 1,800 to 2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Jiangyin 1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,790-1,800 yuan/tonne; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne; French barley: Nantong 1,870 yuan/tonne). Feed consumption in end users shows little signs to go better for the reason that prices for pork remain low amid sluggish and declining pigs raising. On this point, stocks consumption at ports is quite low the time wineries gradually suspend operation in the production cycle and businesses have little buying enthusiasm. Whereas, importers mostly order grain of higher prices in early stage, that is to say, higher costs for Australian barley would still somehow give support to the market. Grain prices go stable today amid mixed short and long positions and shorter term will probably move downward, therefore market participants may as well take latest news for guidance.  

(USD $1=CNY 6.39)