Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on June 8th

2018-06-08 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on June 8th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: on grounds that favorable weather condition in US soybean growing areas and big devaluation of Brazilian real trigger farmers to sell soybeans, US soybeans plunged overnight. Accordingly, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange also fall greatly, and domestically, soybean meal spots mostly trade down. No doubt, turnover is light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,800 to 2,860 yuan/tonne, down 40-70 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,860 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,810-2,820 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,840-2,850 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,800-2,820 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,800-2,820 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,800-2,810 yuan/tonne). Oilseeds crushing will soon rise steeply based on considerable soybean arrivals at ports when SCO Summit comes to an end in mid-June. Yet, demand for soybean meal is still subdued when pigs raising is in the red. Reportedly, the state reserve will start soybean auction from next Thursday, with 2 Mln tonnes in total and 0.3 Mln tonnes in the first stage. That contributes to an expanded decline for today's meals on DCE, and shorter term, soybean meal spots is probable to pare gains tracking futures. Whereas, booming aquatic raising has sent feed demand to rise by 5-10% year on year, that is to say, appetite for soybean meal in the following months will be improved. Worthy of noticing, the trade spat is still worrisome for no substantial progress in talks under way is made though the US proposed tariff lists are around the corner, the date after June 15th. Additionally, weather speculation for US soybeans may come about in late June, then trade spat and weather speculation will be main contributing factors for soybean meal in the after-market. As futures continue to slip, buyers had better stand on the sideways and make proper replenishment till futures go steady. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,200-2,400 yuan/tonne, down 20-60 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,280 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,320 yuan/tonne, down 60 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,400 yuan/tonne, keeping flat). The state reserve is said to engage in soybean auction next Thursday with more than 2 Mln tonnes in total and 0.3 Mln tonnes in the first stage. As a consequence, probably improved operation rate based on large rapeseed and soybean at ports, and intensive supply of domestic new rapeseed weigh on meals performance. Whereas, with hot days coming, recovered demand for meals in booming aquatic raising may somehow give the support, to illustrate, feed demand in aquatic raising may increase by 5-10% if margins turn better. Whereas, the trade spat between the two largest economists is still worrisome for China and the US have not reached any agreement, and if trade spat goes severer after June 15th, meals on the domestic market are to be fueled. Buyers can for the present wait and see, and make proper replenishment when prices go stable. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 41,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal holders show pronounced support for the prices on grounds of declining port stocks and higher costs of new-season fishmeal. Consequently, fishmeal is to remain stable shorter term.  

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for imported soybeans decline steadily, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,490-3,670 yuan/tonne, down 30-60 yuan/tonne from yesterday partly and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.127 Mln tonnes with total 142 vessels in May, 2018, a tad higher than 9.042 Mln tonnes attained in last estimates, 9.5495 Mln tonnes in June, higher than last estimates of 9.4 Mln tonne, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July, which poses bearish pressure on market of imported soybeans. Though bearish pressure hovers over imported soybeans attributed greatly to the ample supply, Given Shandong and Tianjin ports step up impurities inspection for US soybeans, imported soybeans for distribution on the market are stalled in market transaction. However, U.S. President Trump posted his statement on Twitter this Monday that China has already imposed a 16% tax on US soybeans. That sends the cost of U.S. soybean to a higher level and boosts its performance on the market amid port traders' strong support for the prices. On the whole, imported soybeans for the time being mainly go stable and move sideways in a tight range, And as U.S. soybeans enter the critical period of growth in the mid-to-late June, weather speculation therewith may be common amid sharp soybean reduction in Argentina. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans overnight plunged to 970 cents on CBOT given favorable weather condition in US soybean growing areas and big devaluation of Brazilian real contribute to farmer's soybean-selling mindset. Similarly, oils on DCE today drop further, and soybean oil and palm oil spots on the domestic market are also dragged down. Generally speaking, turnover of oils is not much. Market news goes that the state reserve will start auction of soybean, rapeseed oil and soybean oil from June 14th, in detail, about 2 Mln tonnes of soybean auction in total and 0.3 Mln tonnes in the first stage, more than 0.2 Mln tonnes of rapeseed oil and 0.16 Mln tonnes of soybean oil though soybean oil are still as high as 1.34 Mln tonnes in stocks. Actually, oils supply later will be greater based on large soybean arrivals at ports and substantially lifted operation rate in mid-June after the SCO Summit. That means oils performance will go down further in the midst of bearish factors. If viewed from fundamentals, oils performance in the after market will not be optimistic. Nevertheless, weather speculation for US soybeans may come about in late June, then trade spat and weather speculation will be main contributing factors for oils in the after market, so does meals. As futures continue to slip, market players had better maintain a light position level. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,560-5,700 yuan/tonne, most decreasing by 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,620-5,630 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,630 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,700 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,560-5,580 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,920 and 5,030 yuan/tonne, most declining by 20-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,990-5,000 yuan/tonne, a drop of 30 yuan/tonne; Rizhao offer 5,020-5,030 yuan/tonne, down 60 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,950 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,920 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders have not reported). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,520-6,620 yuan/tonne, down 20-30 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200, Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to quote; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Reportedly, the state reserve will conduct soybean auction from next Thursday-- 0.3 Mln tonnes in first stage, and later soybean oil around 0.16 Mln tonnes, rapeseed oil about 0.2 Mln tonnes. If such, rapeseed oil is to price down in line with futures shorter term in light of sufficiently larges soybeans, rapeseed and rapeseed oil of imports and sufficient supplying of domestic new rapeseed already on the market. Notwithstanding, there are still lingering nerves about the trade spat for nothing has been agreed on both sides when the US administration is to announce its proposed lists after June 15th, and market for rapeseed oil may be fueled if trade spat is heated up. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, most domestic corn prices steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, yet only Chengwudadi in Heze increase by 10 yuan/tonne in its offers. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,730 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), and 1,705 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn (moisture 14.5%, volume weight 720-740 g/L); 1,600-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4). Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, unchanged from yesterday. As of June 8th, nearly 43.034 Mln tonnes of corn auctioned have transacted, yet slow delivery and approaching time for first delivery further put pressure on corn sales into cash. Albeit grain supply become greater and greater later as corn auction becomes a normality, general feed demand in the downstream and hand-to-mouth buying strategy taken in most deep processors still weigh down corn prices. Whereas, grain of good quality are basically short of supply, such being the case, corn prices shorter term are limited to fall, and may probably move sideways narrowly with costs support for corn of good quality has the advantage in auction and grain auctioned mainly in northeastern areas are slowly delivered amid logistic tension. Attention should be paid to turnover and delivery of corn auctioned onwards. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum prices at ports turn stable amid some declines, among which US sorghum prices basically come into at 1,820-2,080 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,080 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,930 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,240-2,280 yuan/tonne; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, Hebei 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, all being flat). Prices for Australian barley keep steady, ranging from 1,800 to 2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Jiangyin 1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,790-1,800 yuan/tonne; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne; French barley: Nantong 1,870 yuan/tonne). Feed consumption in end users shows little signs to go better for the reason that prices for pork remain low amid sluggish and declining pigs raising. That also drags down sales of sorghum. On this point, stocks consumption at ports is quite low the time wineries gradually suspend operation in the production cycle and businesses have little buying enthusiasm. Generally, port grain on the domestic market is weighed down, in detail, sorghum prices at some ports slip marginally. Whereas, importers mostly order grain of higher prices in early stage, that is to say, higher costs would still somehow give support to the market. Grain shorter term will probably move downward, therefore market participants may as well keep an eye on. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.41)