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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on June 11th

2018-06-11 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on June 11th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:    

Plant protein:  

    Daily review on soybean meal: regardless, meals today on Dalian Commodity Exchange edge lower tracking declines of US beans last Friday, futures of meals actually run above former closing. Domestically, soybean meal spots drop steadily, and lower prices still attract deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,760 to 2,830 yuan/tonne, steadily down 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin prices 2,830 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,770-2,830 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,820-2,830 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,800-2,820 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,740-2,800 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,800-2,810 yuan/tonne). US soybean futures for the present are suppressed given crop growth is in good condition when free from weather threats. Soybean meal accordingly is still weighed down, attributed to relatively slow recovery of meals demand in end users and largely surprising soybean crush this week based on sufficient soybeans and finished SCO Summit. That subdued meats demand in hot days also curtails meals consumption in the midst of gloomy pigs raising. Yet, as US soybeans enter the crucial period of growth in July and August, frequent weather speculation may result in a weak performance of US soybeans in the near term and a strong one in the long term. To a large extent, trade spat under way will become clearly on June 15th, and if tension goes escalating, meals on the domestic market will rise by leaps and bounds. Shorter term, soybean meal is to move sideways narrowly in a lower level amid eased declines, and only to rebound provided if trade spat brings about great shocks or weather condition goes worse in US soybean areas. Wisely, buyers who are out of stock may as well take small replenishment upon bargain buying and keep an eye on if chasing high bids. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,230-2,380 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,230 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,320 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,380 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne). As weather forecast shows that the “Typhoon Ewinia” will land on this weekend, heavy rains therewith in South China will stumble aquatic raising booms, and consequently putting down rapeseed meal on the market amid its lifted operation rate in mills. Notwithstanding, stockpiles of rapeseed meal last week in South China plunged to 45,000 tonnes by 6% on the week, and in addition, if nothing is reached by two largest economists before June 15th, the date for the U.S. administration to publicize lists, meals on the market is to be bolstered. To some degree, rapeseed meal has limited downward potential and somehow eased declines, therefore buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 41,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes.  Fishing: till June 7th, about 2,911,074 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 87.77% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 405,626 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal holders show pronounced support for the prices on grounds of strong offers in the outer, declining port stocks and good shipments when port arrivals of Peruvian new-season fishmeal are quite few. Consequently, fishmeal is to remain stable shorter term.   

Oils & Oilseeds:  

    Daily review on soybeans: imported soybeans price down today, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,490-3,670 yuan/tonne, down 30-60 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.127 Mln tonnes with total 142 vessels in May, 2018, a tad higher than 9.042 Mln tonnes attained in last estimates, 9.5495 Mln tonnes in June, higher than last estimates of 9.4 Mln tonne, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July, which poses bearish pressure on market of imported soybeans. Bearish pressure hovers over imported soybeans attributed greatly to the ample supply. Given Shandong and Tianjin ports step up impurities inspection for US soybeans, imported soybeans for distribution on the market are stalled in market transaction. However, U.S. President Trump posted his statement on Twitter this Monday that China has already imposed a 16% tax on US soybeans. That sends the cost of U.S. soybean to a higher level and boosts its performance on the market amid port traders?strong support for the prices. In general, soybeans of imports will move sideways steadily and narrowly. And as U.S. soybeans enter the critical period of growth in the mid-to-late June, weather speculation therewith may be common amid sharp soybean reduction in Argentina.  

    Daily review on oils: US beans on Chicago Board of Trade ended last Friday night trading lower on the condition that favorable weather conditions in US soybean growing areas and worrisome trade tension between two largest economists slowed down exports of US soybeans. Correspondingly, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange today actually run above former closing though fall further. Domestically, soybean oil spots mostly trade down the time palm oil spots keep tentatively firm, and turnover is still not much. Market news goes that the state reserve will start auction of soybean, rapeseed oil and soybean oil from this Thursday, in detail, about 2 Mln tonnes of soybean auction in total and 0.3 Mln tonnes in the first stage, more than 0.2 Mln tonnes of rapeseed oil and 0.16 Mln tonnes of soybean oil. On this note, soybean crush this week will climb to a surprisingly higher level based on considerable soybean arrivals and finished SCO Summit. That will thereby contribute to a continuous pile-up of soybean oil even though overwhelming oils glut has been gradually impressive. Shorter term, oils performance will remain weak under such fragile fundamentals in spite of eased declines. Trade spat between China and the U.S. under way may probably become clearly on June 15th, therefore market participants had better maintain a light position level and make small replenishment upon bargain buying when prices go stable, while chasing bids high is not recommended. 

    Today’s soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,540-5,680 yuan/tonne, most decreasing by 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,610-5,620 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,620 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,680 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,540-5,550 yuan/tonne).  

    Today’s palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,920 and 5,020 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,990-5,000 yuan/tonne; Rizhao offer 5,020 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,960 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,920 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,050 yuan/tonne, all being flat).  

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,520-6,620 yuan/tonne, down 20-30 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200, Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to quote; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Such bearish factors still hover above rapeseed oil as accumulating stockpiles--76,000 tonnes last week in South China with a growth of 8% on the week, ample imported soybean, rapeseed, rapeseed oil arrivals, already supplying of domestic rapeseed on market. That results in declining rapeseed oil prices in shorter term in line with futures despite greatly eased declines. Yet, no agreement has yet been reached even though the time for the US announcement is approaching (on June 15th), and frankly speaking, rapeseed oil on the market is probably to be bolstered if trade tension is heated up. Therefore buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.

Grains:  

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn drop steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, yet some are mixed. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L), and 1,695 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), both down 10 yuan/tonne from last week. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn (moisture 14.5%, volume weight 720-740 g/L), basically down 20 yuan/tonne from last week; 1,600-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4). Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, down 10 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Albeit grain supply is sufficiently large with bulks of grain reserved putting into market largely and frequently, corn used for feed ingredient is still slow in demand on grounds of fragile feed demand in the fish breeding and poultry raising and increasing feed alternatives like barley and other imported grain. In this case, corn prices in shorter term are still dragged down. Whereas, opening bid for grain of year 2015 are 50 yuan/tonne higher than that of year 2014 when businesses have rigid demand for grain of good quality, additionally, costs of delivery and freight also give support to corn prices. That is to say, corn prices are not to fall a lot, and frankly, attention should still be paid to corn transaction and delivery in case of uncertainty and risks thereafter. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum prices at ports keep stable, among which US sorghum prices basically come into at 1,820-2,080 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,080 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,930-1,950 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,240-2,280 yuan/tonne; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 2,300 yuan/tonne; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, Hebei 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, all being flat). Prices for Australian barley keep steady, ranging from 1,800 to 2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Jiangyin 1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,790-1,800 yuan/tonne; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne; French barley: Nantong 1,870 yuan/tonne). Feed consumption in end users shows little signs to go better for the reason that prices for pork remain low amid sluggish and declining pigs raising. That also drags down sales of sorghum. On this point, stocks consumption at ports is quite low the time wineries gradually suspend operation in the production cycle and businesses have little buying enthusiasm. Generally, port grain on the domestic market is weighed down, in detail, sorghum prices at some ports slip marginally. Whereas, importers mostly order grain of higher prices in early stage, that is to say, higher costs would still somehow give support to the market. Grain shorter term will probably move downward, therefore market participants may as well keep an eye on.  

(USD $1=CNY 6.40)