Today is 04/24/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on June 21st

2018-06-21 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on June 21st), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans overnight picked up, by contrast, meal futures today on DCE edge down. Domestically, soybean meal spots drop steadily and slightly, yet turnover is still not much though that upon lower prices increases. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,900 to 2,980 yuan/tonne, a steady drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,980 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,900-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,970-2,980 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,950-2,970 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,950-2,980 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,960-2,980 yuan/tonne). Surging oilseeds crushing assured by large imported soybean arrivals and ongoing soybean auction, together with slow meals demand in pigs raising due to losses send soybean meal stockpiles to mount up. That results in light turnover these days whilst buyers maintain cautious about chasing high, and also weighs on soybean meal spots. However, soybean meal shorter term has limited room to price down and is probably on a strong note for hot weather nationwide otherwise speeds up meals demand in aquatic raising. Add to that, weather speculation is probable to start during July and August period and former orders of US soybeans may be subject to default according to some crushers when trade spat is probably on the brink of escalating, therefore crushers are inclined to support meals prices amid their confidence in sales. Trump will soon get back to the table with China, said by Bloomberg. As Trump's capricious ideas do pile uncertainty on market, buyers had better not chase bids high. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal edge low, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,300-2,450 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 40 yuan/tonne in part (Guangxi offers 2,360 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,450 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,450 yuan/tonne, being stable). Rapeseed meal in coastal areas now move sideways given bullish influences brought by trade war fade away. Yet, bearish fundamentals still hover over rapeseed meal factored in accumulating stockpiles of rapeseed meal and soybean meal based on large soybean and rapeseed arrivals at ports and surging oilseeds crushing, delayed meals demand in pigs raising owing to losses, and increasing soybean auction next week around 0.5 Mln tonnes. However, meals demand in aquatic raising may be quickly expanded when hot weather persists in South China. Such being the case, rapeseed meal is not likely to price down a lot amid possibly severer trade spat. Buyers had better stand on the sideways seeing declining futures for the moment. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,700-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,500 yuan/tonne; 10,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 35,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 34,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till June 19th, about 3,108,527 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 93.72% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 208,173 tonnes remain unfinished. Spot offers in foreign trading (FOB) rise steadily: the fishmeal offer in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content comes into at USD $1,360 a tonne, and USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, up 20 yuan/tonne as compared to yesterday; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Though rallying futures in the outer boost domestic market, gradual arrivals of new fishmeal at ports and limited demand in aquatic raising pile pressure on holders. Consequently, fishmeal is to trade stable with downward tendency shorter term. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,590-4,070 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.5495 Mln tonnes with total 147 vessels in June, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July-- unchanged from estimates last week, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August-- up 0.5 Mln tonnes from last week, 7.8 Mln tonnes in September, unchanged from last week. That piles pressure on imported soybeans and limits the upward potential. Notwithstanding, the heated-up trade tension and strong support from importers for soybean prices somehow give support to the maket and subdue the declines. Given both tariffs will take effect July 6th, quotes for imported soybeans for the moment keep stable. Yet once China starts its tariffs on US soybeans, costs for imported soybeans will then reach high together with the prices on the market. Frankly, attention should still be paid to US trade friction with China under way for guidance.  

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans overnight were mixed, yet active arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals sent US soybean oil to end high, and accordingly, oils on DCE today rebound mildly. Domestically, traded volume of soybean oil yesterday expanded, while soybean oil and palm oil spots today mostly turn stable amid some rallies, and turnover upon lower prices is general. Notably, stockpiles of soybean oil have accumulated to 1.4 Mln tonnes based on weekly auction of soybean oil about 0.05 Mln tonnes and increased auction of soybean reserved next week around 0.5 Mln tonnes together with large soybean arrivals and surging oilseeds crushing. On this note, oils performance shorter term is to trade weak overall on condition of bearish fundamentals and sluggish futures. Yet, possibly severer trade woes and weather speculation during July and August period for US soybeans put a cap on downward potential for oils. Wisely, with trade uncertainty onwards, buyers had better maintain cautious and take chance to make small replenishment upon bargain hunting if out of stock. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,380-5,480 yuan/tonne, some growing by 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,480-5,490 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,460 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,480 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,380 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 4,660-4,750 yuan/tonne, increasing by 30-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,740-4,750 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,700 yuan/tonne, a rise of 40 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 4,660 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,800 yuan/tonne; Rizhao stops to report). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil oscillate steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,310-6,430 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Basis: Fuzhiyuan in Guangdong offers 6,370 yuan/tone for GB grade four, up 20 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200; Fujian stops to quote). Stockpiles of soybean oil have been up to 1.4 Mln tonnes based on weekly auction of soybean oil about 0.05 Mln tonnes, increased auction of soybean reserved next week around 0.5 Mln tonnes together with large soybean arrivals, whilst rapeseed oil is also increased to 0.39 Mln tonnes owing to climbing operation rate and large rapeseed arrivals. Therefore, market fundamentals are seen bearish. Nevertheless, possibly escalating trade woes and weather speculation may somehow limit downward potential for rapeseed oil prices. Buyers may as well make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting and stable prices offers. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, most domestic corn prices steadily where some are mixed. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,840-1,930 yuan/tonne, yet some are mixed. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,700-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L), and 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn, both unchanged from yesterday. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,620-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4), all unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday; 1,800-1,820 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, unchanged from yesterday. To some extent, limited supply of corn in North China and downsized old grain available for auction in Shandong help demand in the period to recover a little bit and boost prices of some corn in North China. Whereas, approaching delivery time around 60 days for corn reserved piles pressure on corn delivery already auctioned and traded, when approximately 8 Mln tonnes of grain are auctioned weekly. Notwithstanding, corn demand otherwise is still capped when feed businesses in the downstream keep cautious about buying. Shorter term, corn is to move sideways within ranges since its poor vitality and slow pace to rebound. Notably, corn prices at southern ports these days edge lower. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices up amid some unquoted (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,040-2,050 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne, Nantong stops to quote, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne, up 50. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,240 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,350 yuan/tonne, up 50. Domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for sorghum of poorer quality; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum and Hinggan League offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and Changchun offers 2,900 yuan/tonne). Prices for barley at some ports pick up (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Jiangyin 1,880 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,820 yuan/tonne, up 20). Supply tension of sorghum later will support its market later amid ongoing trade concerns and market uncertainty, and meantime, high costs of Australian sorghum and barley also boost market performance, notably, grain today at ports price up. Nevertheless, factors like fragile feed demand, slow delivery on the market and price competitiveness lack in grain as compared to corn otherwise limit its rallying pace. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.50)