Today (on June 22nd), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans plunged last night, correspondingly, soybean meal today also trades down on DCE. Domestically, its spots are weighed down with futures, yet turnover is not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,850 to 2,930 yuan/tonne, a drop of 30-80 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,910 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,850-2,890 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,900-2,930 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,890-2,910 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,890-2,910 yuan/tonne). Surging oilseeds crushing assured by large imported soybean arrivals together with slow meals demand in fish breeding and poultry raising send soybean meal stockpiles to mount up. That consequently leads to an overflowing soybean meal in mills. Add to that, meals on DCE plunge sharply after trade concerns gradually fade way, and meal spots are also weighed down whilst crushers in Northeastern areas and East China urge buyers to take delivery. Weather speculation is probable to start during July and August period-- the crucial time for US soybean growth and former orders of US soybeans may be subject to default according to some crushers in time of trade spat. Such being the case, soybean meal is not likely to tumble a lot for crushers have confidence in the after market. Reportedly, Trump's administration within seemingly has differences and some officials advocate resuming talks with China to avert a real trade war before bilateral taxes on each part levied on July 6th, said by Bloomberg. Buyers had better stand on the sideways amid trade uncertainty.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal edge low, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,250-2,400 yuan/tonne, with a reduction of 30-70 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,320 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,380 yuan/tonne, down 70 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,400 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne). Bearish fundamentals still hover over and weigh down rapeseed meal shorter term factored in accumulating stockpiles of rapeseed meal and soybean meal based on large soybean and rapeseed arrivals at ports and surging oilseeds crushing, delayed meals demand in pigs raising owing to losses, and increasing soybean auction next week around 0.5 Mln tonnes. However, meals demand in aquatic raising is forecast to recover quickly when hot weather persists nationwide. Such being the case, rapeseed meal is not to price down sharply amid possibly severer trade spat. Buyers had better stand on the sideways for the moment.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,700-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,500 yuan/tonne; 10,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 35,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 34,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till June 20th, about 3,120,826 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 94.09% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 195,874 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Though futures in the outer are bolstered by slow progress of Peruvian fishing, gradual arrivals of new fishmeal at ports pile pressure on stockpiles. Consequently, holders would like to stand on the sidelines. Shorter term, fishmeal is to trade stable with downward tendency.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: prices for imported soybeans decline steadily, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,590-4,070 yuan/tonne, some down 30 yuan/tonne from yesterday and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.5495 Mln tonnes with total 147 vessels in June, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July-- unchanged from estimates last week, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August-- up 0.5 Mln tonnes from last week, 7.8 Mln tonnes in September, unchanged from last week. That piles pressure on imported soybeans and limits the upward potential. Notwithstanding, the heated-up trade tension and strong support from importers for soybean prices somehow give support to the market and subdue the declines. Given both tariffs will take effect July 6th, quotes for imported soybeans for the moment keep stable. Yet once China starts its tariffs on US soybeans, costs for imported soybeans will then reach high together with the prices on the market. Frankly, attention should still be paid to US trade friction with China under way for guidance.
Daily review on oils: US soybean ended overnight trading lower as escalating trade conflict threatened exports of US soybeans, accordingly, oils on DCE today move sideways. Domestically, soybean oil spots edge down in part vis-a-vis a tad higher of palm oil, and traded volume in total is still not much though some lower prices do attract deals. The State Reserves today auction 50,000 tonnes of soybean oil, among which about 30,000 tonnes auctioned in Guangdong fail without any transaction, yet another 20,000 tonnes auctioned in Jiangsu and Fujian reach a deal with average price 5,000 yuan/tonne upon transaction. Notably, stockpiles of soybean oil have accumulated to 1.4 Mln tonnes based on weekly auction of soybean oil about 0.05 Mln tonnes and increased auction of soybean reserved next week around 0.5 Mln tonnes together with large soybean arrivals and surging oilseeds crushing. On this note, oils performance shorter term is to trade weak overall on grounds of sluggish US soybeans. There being said, Trump's administration within has differences and some officials advocate talks with China to avert a trade war before taxes on each part levied on July 6th, according to Bloomberg. Buyers had better stand on the sideways amid trade uncertainty.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,350-5,460 yuan/tonne, some down 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,450-5,460 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,430 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,450 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,350-5,370 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 4,690-4,820 yuan/tonne, increasing by 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,760-4,770 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Rizhao 4,810-4,820 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,730 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 4,690 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,820 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,300-6,350 yuan/tonne, a decline of 50-80 yuan/tonne (Basis: Shenheng in Guangdong offers 1901-230; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200; Fujian stops to quote). Stockpiles of soybean oil have accumulated to 1.4 Mln tonnes based on weekly auction of soybean oil about 0.05 Mln tonnes by the State Reserve and increased auction of soybean next week around 0.5 Mln tonnes together with large soybean arrivals and surging oilseeds crushing. Meantime, rapeseed oil has also been up to 0.39 Mln tonnes in stockpiles assured by large supply and lifted processing rate. On this note, fundamentals are generally bearish for the market. Yet, possibly severer trade woes and weather speculation for US soybeans put a cap on downward potential for oils. Wisely, buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy for shorter term rapeseed oil is to trade weak.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, most domestic corn prices steadily where some are a tad lower. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, yet some decline by 6-18 yuan/tonne as compared to yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,700-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L), and 1,690 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn, both unchanged from yesterday. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,600-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4), all basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne; 1,800-1,820 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Approaching encashment time-- around 60 days for preparation-- for grain auctioned continue to pile pressure on traders in delivery. Yet given businesses in North China rise up grain buying prices the time margins for grain auctioned in Shandong are also seen increased, traders start to make active shipments. On this point, increasing goods arrivals in some businesses in North China again slightly drag down corn buying prices, whilst feed businesses in sales areas still maintain cautious about corn buying. Grain of year 2015 auctioned has gradually dominated the supply side in the event of corn supply tension on the market. Shorter term, corn is to move sideways within ranges factored in raised freight costs.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices up steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,040-2,050 yuan/tonne, Nantong 1,950 yuan/tonne, up 50, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,240 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,350 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for sorghum of poorer quality; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum and Hinggan League offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and Changchun offers 2,900 yuan/tonne). Prices for barley at some ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Jiangyin 1,880 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,820 yuan/tonne). Supply tension of sorghum later will give support to its market amid ongoing trade concerns and market uncertainty, and meantime high costs of imported sorghum and barley also boost market performance amid importers' willingness to hold onto goods for higher prices. Nevertheless, factors like fragile feed demand, slow delivery and little interest of businesses in stockpiling when wineries are in shutdown period otherwise limit the rallying pace. Shorter term, grain overall is on a strong note.