Soybean Oil Stocks and Amounts in Outstanding Contracts in China (Week 25, 2018)

2018-06-26 www.cofeed.com

According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 25 (till June 22nd, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:

Unit: 0’000 tonnes

Area/Enterprise	Soybean Oil Stocks			Soybean Oil in Outstanding Contracts
	Week 25	Week 24	Variation	Week 25	Week 24	Variation
Northeast China	5.95	5.15	0.8	8.3	7.25	1.05
North China	28.17	25.12	3.05	25.75	25.16	0.59
Shandong	11.25	9.87	1.38	12.17	11.47	0.7
East China	48.6	47.9	0.7	36.3	36.7	-0.4
Guangdong	13.92	13.14	0.78	26.55	23.3	3.25
Guangxi	13.22	11.875	1.345	14.43	14.7	-0.27
Fujian	8.8	9.1	-0.3	4.65	4.7	-0.05
Henan	3.11	3.29	-0.18	0.69	0.91	-0.22
Sichuan	3.41	3.6	-0.19	3.14	3.06	0.08
Others	12.16	11.83	0.33	1.86	1.96	-0.1
Total	148.59	140.875	7.715	133.84	129.21	4.63

Comments: soybean oil stocks continue to surge this week, and its sharp rises far exceed market estimates, especially in North China, Shandong, and Guangxi. According to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories ended June 22nd amounts to 1,485,900 tonnes, up 77,150 tonnes by 5.48% from 1,408,750 tonnes tonnes on the week, and up 175,900 tonnes by 13.43% from 1,310,000 tonnes on the month. Meantime as opposed to the same period a prior year, it is up 211,100 tonnes by 16.56% from 1,274,800 tonnes, and on the very note, average stocks of soybean oil in recent five years come into at 1,137,430 tonnes. That increasingly pressure on soybean oil supply show a deadly urgency for delivery taking.

National soybean crush this week comes into at 1,792,000 tonnes (1,415,680 tonnes of soybean meal, 340,480 tonnes of soybean oil) due to improved operation rate nationwide, up 72,400 tonnes by 4.2% vis-a-vis 1,719,600 tonnes last week. Meantime, soybean processing capacity utilization further rises to 51.87%, 2.09 percentage points higher than 49.78 last week. Total soybean crush in week 26 next week, according to Cofeed, will probably climb to 1.88 Mln tonnes and 1.91 Mln tonnes in week 27 based on lifted operation rate. With increasing operation rate onwards, stocks of soybean oil in the near future will further expand and even hit 1.5 Mln tonnes.

Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years

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