Today(on July 2nd), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans actually ended trading low attributed to trade conflicts even though somewhat bullish reports released by USDA last Friday did boost US soybeans most of time, and meals on DCE by contrast continue to trade up today fueled by trade spats, with which soybean meal spots on the domestic market price up. Lower prices do attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,030 to 3,100 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin prices 3,100 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,030-3,060 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,050-3,070 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,080-3,100 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,030-3,070 yuan/tonne). As Chinese buyers mostly turn to Brazil for soybean purchases amid the trade conflicts, basis for Brazilian soybeans surprisingly jumps by 27%, whilst Chinese currency RMB also depreciates by 4%, and that is to say, soybean import costs increase by nearly 130 yuan/tonne. Notably, as US soybean growth enters the crucial period during July and August, weather speculation may be launched at any time. And with the approaching mutual tariffs between China and the U.S. on July 6th, crushers are strongly inclined to support prices, thus underpinning soybean meal prices. Frankly speaking, soybean meal is easier to price up as long as the trade fight continues though accumulating stockpiles of soybean meal do pose bearish factors on fundamentals. Wisely, buyers had better maintain safe inventory levels and not chase bids high too far.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal pick up, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,450-2,600 yuan/tonne with a rise of 60-80 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang offers 2,430 yuan/tonne, up 70 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,580 yuan/tonne, up 80 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers 2,600 yuan/tonne, up 90 yuan/tonne). Seemingly inevitable mutual tariffs on July 6th and falling stockpiles of rapeseed meal in South China-- down to 46,000 tonnes last week by 13%-- underpin prices for rapeseed meal. Generally speaking, rapeseed meal is easier to price up as long as trade conflicts continue for bearish fundamentals like high stockpiles of rapeseed oil and soybean oil overall are overwhelmingly dwarfed by escalating trade spats. In case of impressive rises, buyers had better not chase high too far if having fished replenishment last week.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,700-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,500 yuan/tonne; 10,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 39,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 39,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. In view of increasing stockpiles but high import costs and stable futures in the outer, goods holders at ports would like to stay on the sidelines. Therefore fishmeal shorter term is to keep firm.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: prices for imported soybeans decline steadily, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,470-4,070 yuan/tonne, some down 120 yuan/tonne from last Friday and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.365 Mln tonnes with total 132 vessels in July, 8 Mln tonnes in August, and 7.5 Mln tonnes in September. Given basis for Brazilian soybean surges by 27% amid the trade fight, imported soybean costs also increase by 130 yuan/tonne the time RMB depreciates by 4%. Notably, weather speculation may be launched at any time when US soybean growth enters the crucial period during July and August. Under such circumstances, imported soybeans on the market are capped to fall amid traders' mindsets for goods offers. On the whole, imported soybeans on the market will not oscillate a lot for the present, but costs and prices for imported soybeans will be significantly raised provided if China does slap additional tariffs on US soybeans July 6th. Attention should still be paid to trade fights under way between the two largest economies.
Daily review on oils: US soybeans actually ended last Friday trading low attributed to trade conflicts though somewhat bullish reports released by USDA once gave the support, accordingly, oils on DCE this morning ratchet up, and then fall down in the afternoon owing to arbitrage of buying meals and selling oils among traders. Domestically, soybean oil mostly prices up amid some declines and some palm oil drop as well, and turnover overall is still not much even though lower prices do attract some deals. Given oilseeds crushing hits 1.9 Mln tonnes backed by ample soybean supply, soybean oil thereby reaches 1.5 Mln tonnes in stockpiles. Such expanded pressure on supply also limits upward potential for oils spots. On grounds that basis for Brazilian soybean surges by 27% amid the trade fight, imported soybean costs also increase by 130 yuan/tonne the time RMB depreciates by 4%. Notably, weather speculation may be launched at any time, whilst US soybean growth enters the crucial period during July and August. Under such circumstances, oils performance shorter term is not to fall a lot underpinned by strong crude oil prices, but to keep on a strong note. Therefore, buyers may as well replenish inventories properly upon bargain hunting when prices basically go stable, yet chasing high is still not recommended.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,450-5,550 yuan/tonne, most of which increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne, yet some decrease by 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,530 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,470-5,500 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,550 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,450 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 4,820 to 4,940 yuan/tonne, some falling 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,860-4,870 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 4,940 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 4,900 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 4,820-4,840 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders stop to quote).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise steadily, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 6,330-6,410 yuan/tonne with a rise of 10-30 yuan/tonne (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong 1901-230 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to quote). Bearish fundamentals like accumulating stockpiles of rapeseed oil still limit its upward potential, in detail, rapeseed oil last week in South China and East China climbed to 0.11 Mln tonnes by 3% and 298,000 tonnes by 0.6% on the week, respectively. Given mutual additional tariffs between China and the U.S. will probably happen on July 6th, prices for rapeseed oil are to increase and go on a strong note as long as trade spats continue. Wisely, buyers may as well make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable though some rise up. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processorsmostly stay at 1,790-1,890 yuan/tonne, and some rise by 10-16 yuan/tonne as compared wiith yesterday's. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,700-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), and 1,690 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne; 1,800-1,820 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, being flat as compared with yesterday. Logistic tensions attributed to stricter restrictions on transport in July result in narrowed margins for northeastern grain and short supplying of grain. That lessened grain supply and supply tensions for local grain in North China in the period lead to rises of corn buying prices among Shandong businesses. Regardless, corn supply is still sufficient on grounds that approximately 8 Mln tonnes are auctioned weekly, increasingly considerable delivery pressure on grain auctioned and slow corn feed demand in breeding industry amid strict environmental protection inspections still weigh on corn performance. Generally, corn consumption in end users is still fragile and is hard to improved the time a thorough machine overhaul is on the way during July and August period. Shorter term, corn on the market is to move sideways narrowly onwards.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices steadily, but some are unquoted (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,070 yuan/tonne, Nantong stops to quote, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne, being flat. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,270 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for sorghum of poorer quality; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum and Hinggan League offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and Changchun offers 2,840 yuan/tonne). Barley at ports prices steadily (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Jiangyin 1,880 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,820 yuan/tonne). Chinese importers would like to stand on the sidelines when the first round of additional tariffs is probably to take effect July 6th amid persisting trade conflicts. Meantime high costs of Australian sorghum and barley also underpin importers' mindset to hold onto goods for higher prices. Nevertheless, factors like fragile feed demand, slow delivery on the market and price competitiveness lack in grain as compared to corn otherwise limit its rallying pace and generate little buying interest among feed businesses. Shorter term, grain is to trade sideways overall.
(USD $1=CNY 6.65)