Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on July 3rd

2018-07-03 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on July 3rd), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybean ended overnight trading low susceptible to trade disputes, whilst meals on DCE today fall as well after profit taking. Whereas, meals spots today mostly go stable amid some drops for crushers are inclined to support goods prices the time China is to tax US soybeans, and turnover generally turns light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas mostly range from 3,020 to 3,050 yuan/tonne, some down 20-40 yuan/tonne from yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,050 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,030-3,060 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,030-3,070 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,060-3,080 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,030-3,070 yuan/tonne). Subject to trade tensions between two largest economies, basis for Brazilian soybeans surprisingly surges by nearly 30%, whilst Chinese currency RMB offshore exchange rate also drops to 6.72, about 5% lower than the peak reached in mid-June and that is to say, soybean import costs almost grow by 160 yuan/tonne. Notably, as US soybean growth enters the crucial period, common weather speculation may somehow support soybean meal prices. Fundamentals pressure still persists since stockpiles of soybean meal pile up to 1.24 Mln tonnes when weekly oilseeds crushing hit 1.9 Mln tonnes. Frankly speaking, soybean meal overall is easier to price up as the trade fight overwhelmingly dwarfs bearish fundamentals. Wisely, buyers had better stand on the sidelines and take chance to replenish inventories factored in volatile prices. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal drop slightly and steadily, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,430-2,580 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 10-30 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang offers 2,430 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,530 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers 2,580 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne). Demand for rapeseed meal increases when aquatic raising gradually enters the golden time. That results in a decline of stockpiles in South China to 46,000 tonnes by 13% on the week. And supply tensions also extend to Fujian for merely one mill maintains operation. Besides, a sharp devaluation of RMB to around 6.7 in time of trade spats also boosts import costs of rapeseed and rapeseed meal. Generally speaking, rapeseed meal is easier to price up amid trade fights and crushers' support for prices when bearish fundamentals are overshadowed. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,700-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,500 yuan/tonne; 10,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 40,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 39,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Goods holders at ports would like to support goods offers in consideration of gradually good market demand, high import costs and stable futures in the outer. Therefore fishmeal shorter term is to keep firm. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,470-4,070 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.365 Mln tonnes with total 132 vessels in July, 8 Mln tonnes in August, and 7.5 Mln tonnes in September. Given basis for Brazilian soybean surges by 27% amid the trade fight, imported soybean costs also increase by 130 yuan/tonne the time RMB depreciates by 4%. Notably, weather speculation may be launched at any time when US soybean growth enters the crucial period during July and August. Under such circumstances, imported soybeans on the market are capped to fall amid traders' mindsets for goods offers. On the whole, imported soybeans on the market will not oscillate a lot for the present, but costs and prices for imported soybeans will be significantly raised provided if China does slap additional tariffs on US soybeans July 6th. Attention should still be paid to trade fights under way between the two largest economies. 

    Daily review on oils: beans on CBOT last night all plunged on grounds that commodity speculative investors feared the U.S. escalating trade conflicts with China, the biggest soybean importer, would subdue US soybean exports and then result in significant piles of soybeans in stocks. Accordingly, oils on DCE today move sideways, with which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots price down, and turnover is still not much. Given oilseeds crushing hits 1.9 Mln tonnes, soybean oil thereby reaches 1.5 Mln tonnes in stockpiles, but palm oil last week in stockpiles otherwise dropped by 50,000 tonnes to 0.56 Mln tonnes. That China is to slap 25 percent of tariffs on US soybeans this Friday, basis for Brazilian soybeans surges a lot, whilst RMB offshore exchange rate also declines to 6.72, about 5% below the peak reached in mid-June and that is to say, soybean import costs almost grow by 160 yuan/tonne. And Notably, weather speculation may come at any time when US soybean growth enters the crucial period during July and August. Under such circumstances, oils performance shorter term is not to fall a lot , but to keep on a strong note underpinned by strong crude oil prices globally and worrisome trade war. Therefore, buyers may as well stand on the sidelines and replenish inventories properly upon bargain hunting in case of volatile prices. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,440-5,550 yuan/tonnes, increasing by 10-20 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,510-5,520 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,450-5,490 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,550 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,440-5,450 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,820 and 4,940 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,870-4,880 yuan/tonne, being flat; Rizhao offers 4,940 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,900 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,820-4,840 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,920 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,280-6,400 yuan/tonne, a decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Basis: Shenheng in Guangdong offers 1901-230; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Fujian stops to quote). Stockpiles of soybean oil and rapeseed oil hit 1.5 Mln tonnes and 0.41 Mln tonnes, respectively, given operation rate is assured by ample soybeans and rapeseed. Such bearish fundamentals weigh on oils market. Import costs for rapeseed also rise impressively when RMB depreciates by more than 5% amid trade spats. Notably, weather speculation will come at any time when US soybeans enter the crucial period of growth in July and August. Therefore, rapeseed oil is to keep on a strong note amid strong crude oil prices and worrisome trade fights. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices up steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, and some rise by 6-10 yuan/tonne as compared with yesterday's. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,700-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), and 1,690 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong settle at 1,810-1,820 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne upon the lower price from yesterday. Logistic tensions attributed to stricter restrictions on transport in July result in increased delivery costs for old grain. That lessened supply of local grain attracts Shandong businesses to revise corn buying prices up, and meantime, corn prices at southern ports in coastal areas also ratchet up backed by rising ocean freight for container. Regardless, corn supply is still sufficient on grounds that approximately 8 Mln tonnes are auctioned weekly, increasingly considerable delivery pressure on grain auctioned and slow corn feed demand in breeding industry amid strict environmental protection inspections still weigh on corn performance. Generally, corn consumption in end users is still fragile and is hard to improve a lot the time a thorough machine overhaul is on the way during July and August period. Shorter term, corn on the market is to maintain stable with upward momentum onwards. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,070 yuan/tonne, Nantong offers 2,000-2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne, being flat. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,270 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for sorghum of poorer quality; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum and Hinggan League offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and Changchun offers 2,840 yuan/tonne). Barley at ports prices steadily (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Jiangyin 1,880 yuan/tonne; Yancheng 1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,820 yuan/tonne). Importers for the present mostly would prefer to stand on the sidelines seeing approaching mutual tariffs on July 6th and high uncertainties in trade spats. Meantime high costs of Australian sorghum and barley also underpin importers' mindset to hold onto goods for higher prices. Nevertheless, factors like fragile feed demand, slow delivery on the market and price competitiveness lack in grain as compared to corn otherwise limit its rallying pace and generate little buying interest among feed businesses. Shorter term, grain is to trade sideways overall. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.66)