Today(on July 9th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans rebounded by leaps last Friday when all bearish factors worked out amid the trade war, whereas meals on DCE today come off high opens and edge down in the afternoon. As oilseeds crushers shift to a bullish stance towards after market, performance of meal spots actually is better than that of meal futures, in detail, meal spots today trade up and meals futures otherwise move sideways. Turnover is not much for buyers maintain cautious about high bids. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,050 to 3,140 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20-50 yuan/tonne from last Friday (Tianjin prices 3,100 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,030-3,080 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,050-3,100 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,120-3,140 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,050-3,100 yuan/tonne). Susceptible to the trade war, China has discarded 432,000 tonnes of US soybeans and another 770,000 tonnes of soybeans to load will also fall into the trap. Consequently, Brazilian soybean prices hit five-year fresh high, about US $ 63 per tonne higher than US soybeans'. Meantime, pronounced raised costs for imported soybeans amid considerable RMB devaluation somehow underpin soybean meal prices. Though bearish factors like general sales and heavy stockpiles of soybean meal amid losses in pigs raising have resulted in idle plants in some meal-bloated mills, intensifying trade conflicts still overwhelmingly dwarf those factors. Therefore soybean meal shorter term is easier to price up amid common weather speculation in days ahead. Wisely, given futures come off high opens, buyers had better stay on the sideline if having stocks at hand or keep cautious if chasing high, and make replenishment upon bargain hunting provided if soybean meal spots trade down.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal rise steadily, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,400-2,580 yuan/tonne (Maple in Fangchenggang offers 2,400 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,550 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers 2,580 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). Falling stockpiles in South China to 42,000 tonnes last week by 8% on the market boost rapeseed meal on the market, and susceptible to trade war, surging import costs for soybean and rapeseed after RMB devaluation and robust meal demand in aquatic raising, rapeseed meal prices edge up. Whereas, such bearish fundamentals still weigh down rapeseed meal rallies as ample supply of imported soybean and rapeseed during July and August period, fairly high operating rate and heavy stockpiles of soybean meal. Shorter term, rapeseed meal is to trade sideways in line with futures, therefore buyers had better stay on the sideline for the moment.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal pick up steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal prices for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 9,800 yuan/tonne with a rise of 200 yuan/tonne over last week; 11,200-11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, up 100 yuan/tonne against last week; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, up 200 yuan/tonne over last week. Northern ports: fishmeal prices for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,000 yuan/tonne with a rise of 500 yuan/tonne over last week; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, up 300 yuan/tonne against last week; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, up 200 yuan/tonne over last week. Port stocks: Hangpu has 40,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 40,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Goods traders now prefer to stand on the sideline in view of high import costs, good demand and improved sales at ports, therefore fishmeal shorter term is to maintain stable with strong momentum.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,490-4,070 yuan/tonne, unchanged vis-a-vis last Friday, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.365 Mln tonnes with total 132 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 7.5 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Subject to trade fights, US Soybeans CIF China from US Gulf will hit 3,730 yuan/tonne in the fourth quarter, about 360 yuan/tonne above soybeans imported from Brazil in the event that China slaps 25 percent of tariffs on US soybeans. That will result in low soybean purchases in the fourth quarter and then worrisome soybean sources onwards. And notably, China's trade war with the U.S. will probably escalate since US President Trump once threatened that the US administration would slap another 10% tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion if China levied taxes on U.S. goods. If such, costs for imported soybeans will be further raised amid terrible RMB devaluation, and thus giving favorable conditions to imported soybeans. On the whole, prices for imported spoybean spots in near future will probably go strong.
Daily review on oils: as all bearish factors about trade conflicts died out, beans on CBOT last Friday night rebounded by leaps and bounds from the bottom-- the lowest over past ten years, helped by robust weekly exports of US soybeans. Nonetheless, considerable fundamental pressure drags on oils performance domestically, where soybean oils on DCE today merely ramp up and palm oil ends low. Domestically, soybean oil spots edge up and palm oil spots trade sideways, whilst turnover is not much when buyers prefer to stay on the sideline. Reportedly, China has abandoned 432,000 tonnes of US soybeans and another 770,000 tonnes to load will also fall into the trap attributed to escalating trade war with the U.S.. On this point, prices for Brazilian soybean rise sharply, even hitting five-year fresh high and about $ 63 per tonne higher than US soybean prices. Such noticeable high costs for imported soybeans and great RMB devaluation will no doubt result in low soybean purchases in the fourth quarter and then worrisome soybean sources onwards, giving support to oils performance to some extent. Shorter term, oils performance will keep on a strong note despite heavy supply of oils and limited upward potential. Therefore, buyers may as well stay on the sideline when futures come off high opens.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,480-5,600 yuan/tonnes, increasing by 10-40 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,570-5,580 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,540 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,600 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,480-5,490 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 4,780 to 4,900 yuan/tonne, some rising by 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,840-4,850 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 4,890-4,900 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 4,850 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 4,780 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,840 tonne/tonne).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: prices for imported rapeseed oil basically keep firm, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,300-6,430 yuan/tonne (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Fujian stops to quote). Bearish factors like heavy stockpiles, increasing rapeseed crush and ample supply on the market still weigh on rapeseed oil, in detail, rapeseed oil stockpiles last week rose to 325,000 tonnes in East China by 9% on the week, rapeseed crush in the following two weeks are estimated to reach 95,000 tonnes, and about 200,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil will be auctioned by State Reserve with 61,000 tonnes scheduled on July 17th. There being said, rapeseed oil is otherwise not to fall a lot, underpinned by intensifying trade tensions, raised costs for imported rapeseed oil and rapeseed at ports after RMB devaluation. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is to move sideways tracking futures, therefore buyers had better stay on the sideline for the moment.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn edge up steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,700 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn, all being flat as compared to last week. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), up 10 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong settle at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Corn spots on the domestic market today price up slightly and steadily. Meager grain of year 2017, mostly auctioned in northeast, and rising freight costs including ocean freight for containers in coastal areas bolster corn prices amid strict inspection for automobile transportation. Notwithstanding, albeit supply of grain auctioned is still ample as approximately 8 Mln tonnes of grain auctioned is put into market each week, large delivery pressure and general demand in downstream feed sectors somehow limit upward potential for corn prices. Shorter term, corn prices domestically are not to change a lot, but to move sideways narrowly.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices up sharply (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,150 yuan/tonne, up 80 yuan/tonne and prices are negotiable upon transaction, Nantong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,320-2,350 yuan/tonne, up 80 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,680 yuan/tonne; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum and Hinggan League offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and Changchun offers 2,840 yuan/tonne). Barley at ports prices steadily, but some stop to quote (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Jiangyin and Yancheng stop to quote; Guangdong 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). Supply of US sorghum on domestic market later will be seen less and less amid trade fights, and the reduction of sorghum in market share will otherwise boost market demand for barley. Therefore grain prices at ports today rise sharply fueled by high import costs. Whereas, sluggish demand for grain overall still limits its upward potential, and on this note, grain shorter term is to move sideways.
(USD $1=CNY 6.62)