Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on July 11th

2018-07-11 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on July 11th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans maintained consolidation in overnight trading, whereas meal futures on DCE today jump amid high opens as costs for imported soybean are again fueled by possibly further RMB devaluation to over 300 points and intensifying trade tensions. Notably, the U.S. side said it would slap tariffs on an extra 200 billion US dollars worth of Chinese imports, and China's Ministry of Commerce in response will be forced to take counter-attacks to defend the interests of the country. Domestically, soybean meal spots today price up and Wilmar otherwise revises down its offers by 20 because of high offers earlier. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 3,010 to 3,080 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-30 yuan/tonne compared with yesterday, but Wilmar revises down offers by 20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin prices 3,050 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,010-3,040 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,030-3,050 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,070-3,080 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,030-3,050 yuan/tonne). Turnover upon spots is not much for buyers have finished replenishment upon bargain hunting and that upon far-month basis do attract some deals. Albeit accumulating stockpiles of soybean meal have led to machine halt in some meal-bloated mills in Shandong and Jiangsu provinces, soybean meal overall is easier to price up on grounds that bullish trade spats for domestic market tentatively dwarf unfavorable fundamentals. Additionally, market calculates that US soybean exports amid trade conflicts will be revised downward by USDA tomorrow night, that is to say, final stocks will be raised sharply. Buyers had better stay on the sideline if having stocks at hand under such bearish expectations. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal rise steadily, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,380-2,560 yuan/tonne, some up 30 yuan/tonne (Ocean in Fangchenggang offers 2,400 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,530 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers 2,560 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne). On one hand, surging import costs for soybean and rapeseed after RMB plunges by 300 points amid trade war and robust meal demand in aquatic raising do give support to rapeseed meal on the market. On the other hand, such bearish fundamentals still weigh on meals performance domestically as heavy stockpiles of soybean meal and meal-bloated phenomenon in some mills. Shorter term, rapeseed meal is to trade sideways frequently in line with futures with promising outlook in after market, and buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy or stay on the sideline provided if USDA reports released tomorrow night go bearish. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal pick up steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, up 100 yuan/tonne from yesterday; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 40,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 40,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal performance for the present is underpinned by good market demand, eased stockpile rises at ports and persisting RMB devaluation, such being the case, fishmeal shorter term is to maintain stable with strong momentum.  

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,490-4,070 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.365 Mln tonnes with total 132 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 7.5 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Costs for imported soybean are again fueled by possibly further RMB devaluation to over 300 points and intensifying trade tensions. Notably, the U.S. side said it would slap tariffs on an extra 200 billion US dollars worth of Chinese imports, and China's Ministry of Commerce in response will be forced to take counter-attacks. That consequently is favorable for imported soybeans on the market. On the whole, prices for imported soybean spots in near future will probably move sideways steadily amid mixed long and short positions, and may even be raised if trade fights continue. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans oscillated in a tight range overnight, nonetheless, oils futures on DCE today slip further subject to arbitrage of buying meals and selling oils. Domestically, soybean oil and palm oil spots price down, meantime turnover upon higher offers is not much and that upon lower prices do attract some deals. Slack oils demand in end users has sent soybean oil stockpiles to surprisingly 1.56 Mln tonnes and even results in overflowing meals in some mills, in addition, auction of soybean and soybean oil by State Reserves Bureau keeps on and about 61,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil is also to be auctioned next Tuesday. That overwhelming supply over demand no doubt further weighs down oils on DCE. Notably, the U.S. side said it would slap tariffs on an extra 200 billion US dollars?worth of Chinese imports, and China will be forced to take counter-attacks in response. As it were, possibly escalating trade tensions and further RMB devaluation by 300 points would greatly price up soybean basis in Brazil and thereby boost costs of soybeans imported. Such raised costs consequently will result in low soybean purchases in the fourth quarter and worrisome soybean sources onwards. Such being the case, oils shorter term are to move sideways frequently tracking futures and are limited to fall impressively. And in the medium term, with upcoming golden stockpiling time for small-package oils in end July and common weather speculation for US soybean growth in the crucial period, oils later on market are probable to trade up. Wisely, buyers may as well stay on the sideline for the moment and make proper replenishment when prices go steady. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,370-5,490 yuan/tonnes, most down 10-60 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,480-5,490 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,440 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,490 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,440 yuan/tonne in the morning and 5,370 yuan/tonne in the midday). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,630 and 4,750 yuan/tonne, most down 40-100 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,710-4,720 yuan/tonne, a drop of 50 yuan/tonne; Rizhao offer 4,740 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,700 yuan/tonne, a decline of 60 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,630 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,780yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,170-6,350 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20-30 yuan/tonne (Basis: Shenheng in Guangdong offers 1901-240; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Fujian stops to quote). Bearish factors like heavy stockpiles, high operation rate assured by ample soybean and rapeseed still weigh on rapeseed oil, in detail, rapeseed oil stockpiles rise to 440,000 tonnes and soybean oil is up to 1.56 Mln tonnes domestically, besides about 61,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil will be auctioned by State Reserves Bureau next Tuesday together with ongoing auction of soybean and soybean oil. However, rapeseed oil has resistance to fall, underpinned by intensifying trade tensions as the U.S. declares to pose another tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is to move sideways frequently tracking futures, therefore buyers had better stay on the sideline for the moment. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,700 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L). Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Regardless, pressure on corn auctioned continues factored in another 8 Mln tonnes to be auctioned on July 19th and 20th next week, slack feed demand in end users and cautious corn purchases among feed sectors in sales area still limit upward potential for corn prices. However, meager grain of year 2017 when grain mostly is auctioned in northeast, and rising freight costs including ocean freight for containers in coastal areas bolster corn prices. Shorter term, corn prices domestically are to ramp up steadily, but sufficient large supply of grain auctioned by State Reserves Bureau will to some extent limits the rallies. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,150 yuan/tonne and prices are negotiable upon transaction, Nantong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,320-2,350 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,800 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,680 yuan/tonne; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum and Hinggan League offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and Changchun offers 2,840 yuan/tonne). Barley at ports price steadily and some stop to quote (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given mutual tariffs effective on July 6th, and the reduction of sorghum in market share will otherwise boost market demand for barley. Meantime high import costs for grain also give support to the market. Whereas, sluggish feed demand overall still drags grain market, and on this note, grain prices today keep high amid long and short positions and shorter term, grain is to move sideways. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.67)