Today(on July 12th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans suffered from great falls in overnight trading on the grounds of favorable weather conditions for crop growth and escalating trade tensions after the U.S side proposed to put another tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion. Accordingly, meals on DCE in the morning have resistance to fall, but then surprisingly plunge down in the afternoon when U.S. senators agree on a proposal with overwhelming votes to rebuke Trump over tariff issues. Soybean futures on the Globex otherwise trade up, and soybean meal spots price down in a steady pace with light turnover. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,980 to 3,080 yuan/tonne, a reduction of 10-20 yuan/tonne compared with yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,020 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,990-3,020 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,980-3,030 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,070-3,080 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,040-3,060 yuan/tonne). Heavy stockpiles of soybean meal in mills have resulted in common and urgent delivery taking nationwide. Additionally, market calculates that US soybean exports amid trade conflicts will be revised downward by USDA tonight, that is to say, final stocks will be raised sharply. Therefore, buyers had better stay on the sideline and wait for reports for guidance provided if soybean meal keep volatile shorter term. The proposal by US Senate, as it were, has low possibility to come true, and if possible, it still takes time to be effective, thus making little difference to the trade war under way.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal slip steadily, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,380-2,530 yuan/tonne, some down 30 yuan/tonne (Ocean in Fangchenggang offers 2,400 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,530 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers 2,530 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne). Mills in Fujian province engaged in rapeseed crushing almost stop operation, and to make up the deficiency and ease local supply tension of rapeseed meal, Fuzhiyuan starts to process rapeseed with two production lines this week. On one hand, surging import costs for rapeseed and rapeseed meal after RMB plunges amid trade war do give support to rapeseed meal on the market. On the other hand, such bearish fundamentals still drag down meals performance domestically as heavy stockpiles of soybean meal, increasing meal-bloated phenomenon in mills and slightly falling soybean meal prices today. Buyers had better stay on the sideline provided if USDA reports released tonight go bearish.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 40,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 40,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal shorter term is to maintain stable underpinned by eased stockpiles at ports after good market demand though goods arrivals are gradually on the increase.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,490-4,070 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.365 Mln tonnes with total 132 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 7.5 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Costs for imported soybean are again fueled by possibly further RMB devaluation to over 300 points and intensifying trade tensions. Notably, the U.S. side said it would slap tariffs on an extra 200 billion US dollars worth of Chinese imports, and China's Ministry of Commerce in response will be forced to take counter-attacks. That consequently is favorable for imported soybeans on the market. On the whole, prices for imported soybean spots in near future will probably move sideways steadily amid mixed long and short positions, and may even be raised if trade fights continue.
Daily review on oils: US soybean overnight tumbled a lot attributed to favorable weather conditions for crop growth and escalating trade tensions, accordingly, oils on DCE today fall further, with which most soybean oil and palm oil spots price down. Turnover is still not much when buyers prefer to stay on the sideline in case of market risks. Burdensome oils supply no doubt drags down oils performance factored in accumulating soybean oil stockpiles, ongoing auction of soybean and soybean oil by State Reserves Bureau and expected 61,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil auctioned next Tuesday. Notably, soybean futures on the Globex rebound and meals on DCE otherwise slump in the afternoon given U.S. senators agree on a proposal with overwhelming votes to rebuke Trump on tariff issues. By contrast, oils slightly narrow the declines after partly relieved arbitrage of buying meals and selling oils. Shorter term, oils are to move sideways frequently in line with futures. The proposal by US Senate, seemingly, has low possibility to come true, and if possible, it still takes time to be effective, thus making little difference to the trade war under way. According to market calculates, final stocks of US soybeans may rise sharply in USDA reports tonight for soybean exports are susceptible to trade fights under way. Buyers had better stay on the sideline or take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy under such bearish expectations.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,350-5,470 yuan/tonne, most down 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,450-5,460 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,400 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,470 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,350-5,360 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,600 and 4,710 yuan/tonne, most down 30-100 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,660-4,670 yuan/tonne, a drop of 30 yuan/tonne; Rizhao offer 4,710 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,670 yuan/tonne, a decline of 30 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,600 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,680yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,150-6,300 yuan/tonne, a decline of 50-80 yuan/tonne (Chinatex in Zhanjiang, Guangdong offers 6,130 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Fujian stops to quote). Bearish factors like growing oils stockpiles, high operation rate assured by ample soybean and rapeseed still weigh on oils market, in additional, about 61,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil will be auctioned by State Reserves Bureau in the first round next Tuesday together with ongoing auction of soybean and soybean oil. However, rapeseed oil, underpinned by raised import costs and right stockpiling time, is not to drop impressively, in detail, intensifying trade tensions result in great RMB devaluation and then raise costs for rapeseed and rapeseed oil, and besides, golden stockpiling time for small-package oils in end July is around the corner. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is to move sideways frequently tracking futures, therefore buyers had better stay on the sideline for the moment.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable though some pick up. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly keep flat at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, but some increase by 10-28 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,700 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L). Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Meager grain of year 2017, especially grain of good quality, and rising costs including and regional freight and ocean freight for containers bolster corn prices on the domestically recently. Notwithstanding, albeit supply of grain auctioned is still ample as approximately 8 Mln tonnes of grain auctioned is put into market each week, high stockpiles of corn in feed sectors and dominant hand-to-mouth purchasing strategies among downstream feed sectors somehow limit upward potential for corn prices. Shorter term, corn prices domestically are to move sideways narrowly and stably with strong momentum when oversupply continues.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,150 yuan/tonne and prices are negotiable upon transaction, Nantong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,320-2,350 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,800 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,680 yuan/tonne; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum and Hinggan League offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and Changchun offers 2,840 yuan/tonne). Barley price at ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, and the reduction of sorghum in market share will otherwise boost market demand for barley. Therefore importers having goods at hand prefer to hold onto goods and support goods offers. Meantime high import costs for grain also give support to the market. Whereas, sluggish feed demand overall still drags grain market, and on this note, grain prices today keep high amid long and short positions and shorter term, grain is to move sideways.
(USD $1=CNY 6.67)