Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on July 13th

2018-07-13 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on July 13th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: USDA last night reported a sharp cut in soybean export forecasts, leaving record-high soybean stocks, whilst good weather conditions in the Midwest also sent US soybean futures to the bottom in contracts. Nonetheless, short covering underpinned beans in the closing trading to ramp up. Meals futures on DCE today trade down amid low opens and soybean meal spots on the domestic market also price down. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,960 to 3,030 yuan/tonne, a reduction of 10-30 yuan/tonne compared with yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,990 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,990-3,020 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,960-3,000 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,030-3,060 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,000-3,030 yuan/tonne). Bearish fundamentals still weigh down soybean meal spots factored in burdensome stockpiles and slack demand due to losses in pigs raising, in addition, heavy stockpiles and increasingly bloated meals in mills have resulted in common and urgent delivery taking nationwide. Worth of noticing, worries about soybean sources in the fourth quarter amid the brewing trade war, weather uncertainty for US soybean growth together with bearish WASDE reports (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ) have sent US soybeans to end a tad high in trading, that is to say, US soybeans have increased resistance to fall after consecutive sessions of declines. Shorter term, soybean meal prices are not to plunge significantly, but probably to edge up after declines. Wisely, buyers may as well stay on the sideline and make proper replenishment when prices go steady. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal drop, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,350-2,500 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne (Ocean in Fangchenggang offers 2,400 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,500 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers 2,500 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne). Such bearish fundamentals still drag down rapeseed meals as heavy stockpiles of soybean meal, high oilseeds crushing in mills assured by ample soybean supply. On one hand, surging import costs for rapeseed and rapeseed meal after RMB plunges amid trade war, approaching golden time for aquatic raising and falling stockpiles of rapeseed meal last week by 8% do give support to rapeseed meal on the market. To the extent that rapeseed meal shorter term is not to plunge impressively, but to trade sideways in line with futures. Wisely, buyers had better stay on the sideline and make replenishment when prices go stable.  

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 40,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 40,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal shorter term is to maintain stable underpinned by eased stockpiles at domestic ports and strong fishmeal performance outside domestic market. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,490-4,070 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.561 Mln tonnes with total 132 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 7.5 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Whereas, worries about soybean sources in the fourth quarter amid the brewing trade war and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth have strengthened traders' support for goods offers, that is to say, imported soybeans on the market are underpinned. On the whole, prices for imported spoybean spots in near future will probably move sideways steadily amid mixed long and short positions. In the long run, imported soybeans on the market are probable to price up if trade spats go forward. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans on CBOT last night reached the nadir in contracts after USDA reported a sharp decline in soybean export forecasts, leaving record-high soybean stocks. Nonetheless, short covering underpinned beans in the closing trading to pick up, and by contrast, US soybean oil still ended low by weakening crude oil and sluggish exports, and US soybean meal otherwise moved sideways narrowly. Oils futures on DCE today further trade down, and soybean oil and palm oil spots on the domestic market mostly price down with not much turnover. Crude oil prices have fallen sharply in recent days when oils production in OPEC reaches high to the utmost, therefore stockpiles of Malaysian palm oil are also spiraling up in end June. Furthermore, burdensome oils supply no doubt drags down oils performance factored in accumulating soybean oil stockpiles domestically, ongoing auction of soybean and soybean oil by State Reserves Bureau and expected 61,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil auctioned next Tuesday. Whereas, escalating trade war and uncertain weather conditions for US soybean growth somehow limit downward potential for oils prices. Therefore, buyers had better stay on the sideline and make replenishment when prices go stable. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,350-5,470 yuan/tonne, most down 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,440-5,450 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,370 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,470 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,350-5,360 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,610 and 4,710 yuan/tonne, most declining by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,660-4,670 yuan/tonne, a drop of 20 yuan/tonne; Rizhao offer 4,700-4,710 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,660 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,610 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders stop to quote). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,120-6,230 yuan/tonne, a decline of 50-100 yuan/tonne (Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,180 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Fujian stops to quote). Bearish factors still hover above the market like growing oils stockpiles and the first-round auction of rapeseed oil about 61,000 tonnes next Tuesday by State Reserves. However, rapeseed oil, underpinned by raised import costs and right stockpiling time, is limited to fall dramatically, in detail, intensifying trade tensions result in great RMB devaluation and then raise costs for rapeseed and rapeseed oil, and besides, golden stockpiling time for small-package oils in end July is around the corner. Wisely, buyers had better stay on the sideline in view of falling prices for the moment. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable though some rise up. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly keep flat at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, but some increase by 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,700 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L). Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Rising freight costs due to logistic tensions and squeezed profits for traders have resulted in pronounced reduction of grain supply. Whilst meager grain of year 2017, especially grain of good quality, thereby bolster corn prices. Notwithstanding, slack grain demand in the downstream, hand-to-mouth purchasing strategies taken by deep processors to maintain a safe inventory level amid high corn stockpiles in feed sectors and ample supply of grain auctioned as approximately 8 Mln tonnes of grain is put into market each week somehow limit upward potential for corn prices. On the whole, corn prices domestically shorter term are to move sideways narrowly and stably with strong momentum when oversupply persists. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,150 yuan/tonne and prices are negotiable upon transaction, Nantong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,320-2,350 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,800 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,680 yuan/tonne; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum and Hinggan League offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and Changchun offers 2,840 yuan/tonne). Barley price at ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, and the reduction of sorghum in market share will otherwise boost market demand for barley. Therefore importers having goods at hand prefer to hold onto goods and support goods offers. Meantime high import costs for grain also give support to the market. Whereas, sluggish feed demand overall still drags grain market, and on this note, grain prices today keep high amid long and short positions and shorter term, grain is to move sideways. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.69)