China’s Soybean Crush Weekly (Week 28, 2018)

2018-07-16 www.cofeed.com

Given slow consumption of soybean meal has led to increasing meal-bloated phenomena, mills have to control or suspend operation to ease pressure. Therefore national soybean crush this week (July 7th- 13th) come into at 1,713,500 tonnes (1,353,665 tonnes of soybean meal, 325,565 tonnes of soybean oil), lowered by 6.08% or 111,000 tonnes from 1,824,500 tonnes last week. Meantime, soybean processing rate (capacity utilization) also drops from 52.82% to 49.60% this week, about 3.22 percentage points lower. Total soybean crush in week 29 next week, according to Cofeed, will probably settle at 1.74 Mln tonnes or so and 1.85 Mln tonnes in week 30 if operation rate ramps up.

Based on current soybean processing capacity, July soybean crush nationwide is forecast to be 7.85 Mln tonnes, higher than 7.6228 Mln tonnes attained in June and only a tad lower than 7.95 Mln tonnes year on year.

Soybean crush in year 2017/2018 (as from 1 October 2017) now amounts to 69,310,970 tonnes, up 1,325,793 tonnes by 1.95% vis-a-vis 67,985,177 tonnes attained in year 2016/17. National soybean crush in calendar year 2018 (as from 1 January 2018) has totaled 44,975,350 tonnes, still 0.68% or 309,029 tonnes below 45,284,379 tonnes on a year-on-year basis.

Figure: Trends of Soybean Weekly Crush in China (2014-2018)

Details for weekly crush are shown as follows:

No	Area	Soybean Crush (mT)			Operation Rate (Capacity Utilization)
		Week 28	Week 27	Variation	Week 28	Week 27	Variation
1	Jiangsu	343,500	331,500	12,000	57.26%	55.26%	2.00%
2	Shandong	308,700	298,400	10,300	51.55%	49.83%	1.72%
3	Guangdong	228,200	244,200	-16,000	56.50%	60.46%	-3.96%
4	Guangxi	169,600	200,600	-31,000	54.45%	64.40%	-9.95%
5	Tianjin	131,600	142,100	-10,500	87.44%	94.42%	-6.98%
6	Liaoning	118,000	115,500	2,500	52.43%	51.32%	1.11%
7	Fujain	103,800	123,600	-19,800	61.28%	72.96%	-11.69%
8	Hebei	86,000	103,500	-17,500	47.25%	56.87%	-9.62%
9	Hubei	49,000	49,000	0	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%
10	Henan	41,600	55,400	-13,800	34.55%	46.01%	-11.46%
11	Zhejiang	39,400	39,400	0	33.91%	33.91%	0.00%
12	Shaanxi	30,800	30,800	0	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%
13	Jilin	12,000	10,000	2,000	15.58%	12.99%	2.60%
14	Hunan	10,600	5,000	5,600	54.08%	25.51%	28.57%
15	Sichuan	10,500	31,500	-21,000	25.00%	75.00%	-50.00%
16	Anhui	8,400	8,400	0	52.17%	52.17%	0.00%
17	Jiangxi	7,000	7,000	0	58.82%	58.82%	0.00%
18	Heilongjiang	5,600	5,600	0	3.33%	3.33%	0.00%
19	Chongqing	5,000	16,800	-11,800	23.81%	80.00%	-56.19%
20	Xinjiang	4,200	4,200	0	75.00%	75.00%	0.00%
21	Shanghai	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
22	Shanxi	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
23	Inner Mongolia	0	2,000	-2,000	0.00%	16.81%	-16.81%
	China Total	1,713,500	1,824,500	-111,000	49.60%	52.82%	-3.21%

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