Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on July 16th

2018-07-16 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on July 16th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: as market fears about the brewing trade war are again triggered by downsized US soybean export estimates in USDA report, US soybeans last Friday traded down terribly, accordingly, meals on DCE and soybean meal spots on the domestic market today also come down. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,930 to 3,000 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin prices 2,960 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,920-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,960-2,980 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,000-3030 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,980-3,000 yuan/tonne). Bearish factors still weigh down soybean meal spots like burdensome stockpiles, and such heavy stockpiles in mills thereby result in much-needed and urgent delivery taking nationwide. Yet, favorable fundamentals amid China-US trade war on the domestic market and unexpected weather to come for US soybean growth will somehow put a cap on soybean meal declines. As it is, meals on DCE in the morning gradually narrow declines, and soybean meal are also expected to price up after a series of declines. US soybeans have increased resistance to fall after consecutive sessions of declines. Wisely, buyers may as well make small replenishment upon bargain hunting if out of stock, and keep an eye on if chasing bids high. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,350-2,500 yuan/tonne, falling 30-40 yuan/tonne (Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,360 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 40 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan 2,490 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,500 yuan/tonne). Such factors still drag down rapeseed meals as heavy stockpiles and languishing prices of soybean meal, high oilseeds crushing in mills assured by ample imported soybean and rapeseed supply in July-and-August period. On one hand, surging import costs for soybean and rapeseed meal after RMB plunges amid trade war, approaching golden time for aquatic raising and falling stockpiles of rapeseed meal in South China last week by 8% to 42,000 tonnes do give support to rapeseed meal on the market. To the extent that rapeseed meal has resistance to fall and shorter term is to trade sideways in line with futures. Wisely, buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.  

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 40,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 40,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal prices shorter term are to maintain stable underpinned by holders' support in view of slow stockpiles accumulation and brewing RMB devaluation.  

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,490-4,070 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.365 Mln tonnes with total 132 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 8 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Susceptible to escalating trade tensions, Chinese buyers are forecast to buy less US soybeans in months ahead. Besides, worries about soybean sources in the fourth quarter amid the brewing trade war and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth have strengthened traders' support for goods offers, that is to say, imported soybeans on the market are underpinned. On the whole, prices for imported spoybean spots in near future will probably move upward steadily amid mixed long and short positions.  

    Daily review on oils: US beans on CBOT last Friday all traded down terribly, susceptible to market fears about intensifying trade conflicts after USDA greatly revised its US soybean export estimates down in the monthly report, accordingly, oils on DCE today also slip, followed by soybean oil and palm oil spots on the domestic market with few turnover. Surging basis for Brazilian soybeans and RMB devaluation have sent costs of imported soybeans high, whilst oilseeds crushing slipped by 6% last week owing to increasing meal-bloated phenomena domestically. Whereas, stockpiles of soybean oil still pile up to 1.57 Mln tonnes amid slack oils demand in end users. In real terms, oils on the domestic market are to move downward on grounds of ongoing auction of soybean and soybean oil by State Reserves Bureau together with 61,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil to be auctioned this Tuesday and languishing crude oil prices to less than $ 70 the time stockpiles of Malaysian palm oil keep growing based on less exports and more production. That is to say, shorter term, oils spots will follow futures to trade sideways and ease the declines, therefore buyers short of stocks at hand are suggested to make small replenishment upon bargain hunting when there is a sigh of price rallying. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,320-5,430 yuan/tonne, most down 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,400-5,410 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,340 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,430 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,320 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,610 and 4,700 yuan/tonne, most declining by 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,640-4,650 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao offer 4,690-4,700 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,660 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,610 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders stop to quote). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,060-6,200 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20-50 yuan/tonne (Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,180 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Fujian stops to quote). Considerable fundamental pressure still hovers above the oils market like growing oils stockpiles and projected auction of rapeseed oil over 200,000 tonnes with 61,000 tonnes tomorrow by State Reserves Bureau. However, rapeseed oil, underpinned by raised import costs, right stockpiling time and falling stockpiles in South China by 3% to 100,000 tonnes, is limited to fall dramatically, in detail, intensifying trade tensions result in great RMB devaluation and then raise costs for rapeseed and rapeseed oil, and besides, golden stockpiling time for small-package oils in end July is around the corner. Wisely, buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy for the moment. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices are stable amid some rises. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,830-1,920 yuan/tonne, some up 10-20 from last Friday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,700 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn, all being flat as compared to last Friday. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L). Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Grain supply of year 2017 is seen less and less, whilst rising freight costs, high delivery costs for grain traded, and squeezed profits for traders have resulted in limited delivery of old grain and even supply tension in some areas for most grain is auctioned in northeastern areas. On the point, corn prices are underpinned, whose prices in Shandong province rise by 10-20 yuan/tonne these days. Notwithstanding, grain demand in end users remains slack despite approximately 8 Mln tonnes of grain being put into market each week, therefore corn prices shorter term are not to rise by jumps, but to move sideways stably with strong momentum. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,150 yuan/tonne and prices are negotiable upon transaction, Nantong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,320-2,350 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,800 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,680 yuan/tonne; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum and Hinggan League offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and Changchun offers 2,840 yuan/tonne). Barley price at ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, and the reduction of sorghum in market share will otherwise boost market demand for barley. Therefore importers having goods at hand prefer to hold onto goods and support goods offers. Meantime high import costs for grain also give support to the market. Whereas, sluggish feed demand overall still drags grain market, and on this note, grain prices today keep high amid long and short positions and shorter term, grain is to move sideways. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.68)