According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 28 (till July 13th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
Unit: 0’000 tonnes
|
Area/Enterprise
|
Soybean Oil Stocks
|
Soybean Oil in Outstanding Contracts
|
|
|
Week 28
|
Week 27
|
Variation
|
Week 28
|
Week 27
|
Variation
|
|
Northeast China
|
7.8
|
6.9
|
0.9
|
10.4
|
9.8
|
0.6
|
|
North China
|
30.07
|
29.92
|
0.15
|
24.7
|
26.06
|
-1.36
|
|
Shandong
|
12.89
|
12.79
|
0.1
|
12.73
|
11.965
|
0.765
|
|
East China
|
49.1
|
49.18
|
-0.08
|
33.75
|
34.72
|
-0.97
|
|
Guangdong
|
13.78
|
13.77
|
0.01
|
27.35
|
26.3
|
1.05
|
|
Guangxi
|
13.06
|
13.19
|
-0.13
|
14.4
|
14.15
|
0.25
|
|
Fujian
|
10.2
|
10.37
|
-0.17
|
3.1
|
2.9
|
0.2
|
|
Henan
|
3.52
|
3.45
|
0.07
|
0.72
|
0.78
|
-0.06
|
|
Sichuan
|
3.14
|
3.57
|
-0.43
|
3.23
|
3.85
|
-0.62
|
|
Others
|
13.05
|
12.86
|
0.19
|
1.91
|
2.08
|
-0.17
|
|
Total
|
156.61
|
156
|
0.61
|
132.29
|
132.605
|
-0.315
|
Comments: soybean oil is now obvious to ease its stockpiles accumulation though still on the increase. According to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories ended July 13th comes into at 1,566,100 tonnes, 6,100 tonnes or 0.39% above 1,560,000 tonnes on the week, and vis-a-vis 1,365,000 tonnes the same week last month, it is up 201,100 tonnes by 14.73%. Meantime, it is also up 266,100 tonnes by 20.47% from 1,300,000 tonnes, and on the very note, average stocks of soybean oil in recent five years are now pegged at 1,237,250 tonnes.
That pronounced ease of stockpiles growth is mainly attributed to lowered operation rate. And given slow consumption of soybean meal has led to increasing meal-bloated phenomena, mills have to control or suspend operation to assuage pressure. Therefore national soybean crush this week come into at 1,713,500 tonnes (1,353,665 tonnes of soybean meal, 325,565 tonnes of soybean oil), lowered by 6.08% or 111,000 tonnes from 1,824,500 tonnes last week. Meantime, soybean processing rate (capacity utilization) also drops from 52.82% to 49.60% this week, about 3.22 percentage points lower. Total soybean crush in week 29 next week, according to Cofeed, will probably settle at 1.74 Mln tonnes or so and 1.85 Mln tonnes in week 30 if operation rate ramps up.
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
