Comment: stockpiles of soybeans this week are a tad lower as soybeans at some ports fail to be unloaded. In week 28 ended on July 13th, stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas total 6,493,000 tonnes, down 301,000 tonnes by 4.43% on the week as compared to 6,794,000 tonnes last week, and also down 14.38% contrasting with 5,676,400 tonnes year on year. In general, stockpiles of soybeans next week are expected to ramp up based on sufficiently large soybean arrivals during July-and-August period.

    Subject to overflowing soybean meal, some mills have to idle machines and diligently urge traders to take delivery. That lowered operation rate thereby results in a slight reduction of meal stockpiles. Till July 13th, total stocks in costal major areas come into at 1,253,100 tonnes, down 19,000 tonnes by 1.49% from 1,272,100 tonnes last week, but vis-a-vis 1,128,300 tonnes year on year, it is still up 11.06%. Generally speaking, stockpiles of soybean meal next week may further trend down since soybean crushing is probable to fall below expectations at around 1.74 Mln tonnes, but notably, total stockpiles still remain at a high level.

    Till July 13th, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts have fallen to 6,211,000 tonnes from 6,481,200 tonnes last week, down 270,200 tonnes by 4.16%, but still up 26.20% contrasting with 4,921,300 tonnes year on year. 

                 Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

                Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

           Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years