Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on July 18th

2018-07-18 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on July 18th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: according to foreign media, China and the U.S. are reported to go back to the roundtable in August, if such, China's demand for US soybeans may improve. Additionally, susceptible to hot and dry weather condition in US soybean growing areas, soybean G/E rate declines from 71% to 69% this week, and is still below market estimates of 70%. Under such circumstances, US soybeans ended overnight up, and meals on DCE today gradually pare gains after high opens. Domestically, soybean meal spots ramp up amid few turnover. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,950 to 3,090 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin prices 3,010 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,940-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,000-3,020 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,070-3,090 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,010-3,030 yuan/tonne). The brewing trade war and possible weather speculation for US soybeans together with crushers' support for goods offers somehow lead to a mild rise of soybean meal. Nonetheless, ample soybean sources, slack meals demand and persisting meal-bloated and machine halt in mills otherwise weigh down rallies in soybean meal, in detail, though soybean supply is sufficient factored in 25 Mln tonnes of soybean arrivals in July-and-September period and over 8 Mln tonnes of port stockpiles, meals demand is shriveled attributed to low pigs raising and heavy rains in some regions. Shorter term, soybean meal prices are to move sideways tracking futures, therefore buyers having stocks at hand may as well stay on the sideline and make proper replenishment upon forward low basis instead of chasing high. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,370-2,510 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-20 yuan/tonne (Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,350 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 20 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan 2,510 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,540 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne). Regardless, soybean meal keeps accumulating in stockpiles based on approximately 24.9 Mln tonnes of soybean arrivals during July-to-September period, losses in pigs raising and strict environmental protection in the southern areas have forced free-range raisers to get out of the business, consequently, demand for meals is seen cut including rapeseed meal. Whereas, surging import costs for oilseeds after RMB plunges amid trade war and lowered US soybean G/E rate amid hot weather do give support to rapeseed meal on the market. Shorter term, rapeseed meal is to trade sideways narrowly with futures, therefore buyers can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 42,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Price variation of fishmeal at present is capped factored in limited stocks pressure at ports and holders' wait-and-see attitudes and mindsets for prices support. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,490-4,070 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.365 Mln tonnes with total 132 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 8 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Susceptible to escalating trade tensions, Chinese buyers are forecast to buy less US soybeans in months ahead. Besides, worries about soybean sources in the fourth quarter amid the brewing trade war and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth have strengthened traders' support for goods offers, that is to say, imported soybeans on the market are underpinned. On the whole, prices for imported soybean spots in near future will probably move upward steadily amid mixed long and short positions. 

    Daily review on oils: China and the U.S. are reported to resume talks in August according to foreign media, and if such, China's demand for US soybeans may improve. Susceptible to hot and dry weather condition in US soybean growing areas, soybean G/E rate declines from 71% to 69% this week, and is still below market estimates of 70%. Under such circumstances, US soybeans in overnight trade rebounded, and US soybean oil also traded up thanks to arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Accordingly, oils on DCE today ramp up, with which soybean oil and palm oil spots also price up by 10-30 yuan/tonne though rallies are gradually narrowed. Turnover is still not much the time buyers maintain cautious about the market. Surging basis for Brazilian soybeans and RMB devaluation have sent costs of imported soybeans high, whilst oilseeds crushing slipped by 6% last week owing to meal-bloated phenomena domestically. Whereas, stockpiles of soybean oil now pile up to 1.57 Mln tonnes assured by ample soybean supply for about 25 Mln tonnes of soybean will arrive at ports during July-and-September period in spite of general oils demand. In real terms, supply pressure does weigh on oils domestically on grounds of ongoing auction of soybean, soybean oil and rapeseed oil by State Reserves Bureau, particularly, only 28% of soybeans auctioned (495,000 tonnes in total) are successfully traded today, and another 60,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil is to be auctioned next Tuesday along with 500,000 tonnes of soybean, 43,700 tonnes of soybean oil next Wednesday. Shorter term, oils spots will follow futures to trade sideways frequently and narrowly, therefore buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy for the moment. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,360-5,470 yuan/tonne, most up 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,440-5,450 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,380 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,470 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,360 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 4,660-4,700 yuan/tonne, most increasing by 20-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,690-4,700 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,700 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 4,660 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,730 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne; Rizhao stops to report). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil keep firm, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,100-6,200 yuan/tonne (Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,140 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-170; Fujian stops to quote). Sluggish fundamentals like sufficiently ample supply and stockpiles of oils still weigh on rapeseed oil performance, particularly, about 60,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil, 500,000 tonnes of soybeans and 40,000 tonnes of soybean oil will be auctioned next week though soybean oil stockpiles have piled up to 1.57 Mln tonnes. Whereas, brewing trade war and lowered US soybean G/E rate amid hot weather do give support to rapeseed oil on the market. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways with futures, therefore buyers can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable though some price down. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,830-1,920 yuan/tonne, some down 6-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,700 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Albeit rising corn prices in North China pick up these days attract more supplying of grain auctioned attributed to factors like rising freight costs and falling grain stockpiles in deep processors, Shandong traders otherwise lower down corn buying prices from yesterday. On the whole, supply of grain auctioned is seen sufficient assured by another round of auction about 8 Mln tonnes scheduled on July 26th-27th next week. Whilst grain demand in feed sectors and deep processors in downstream will remain sluggish amid seasonal machine overhaul. Therefore corn prices shorter term have limited upward potential and are to move sideways narrowly and steadily. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,150 yuan/tonne and prices are negotiable upon transaction, Nantong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,320-2,350 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,800 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,680 yuan/tonne; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum and Hinggan League offers 2,800 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and Changchun offers 2,840 yuan/tonne). Barley price at ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, and the reduction of sorghum in market share will otherwise boost market demand for barley. Therefore importers having goods at hand prefer to hold onto goods and support goods offers. Meantime high import costs for grain also give support to the market. Whereas, sluggish feed demand overall still drags grain market, and on this note, grain prices today keep high amid long and short positions and shorter term, grain is to move sideways. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.72)