Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on July 20th

2018-07-20 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on July 20th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

 Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybean rebounded in overnight trading followed by meals on DCE today for market fears went that hot and day in US soybean growing areas might result in lower-than-expected yield. Domestically, soybean meal spots price up yet with few turnover. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,960 to 3,110 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20-30 yuan/tonne from yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,040 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,940-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,980-3,000 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,070-3,110 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,020-3,080 yuan/tonne). The U.S. former proposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods worth 16 billion US dollars are to take effect from today, and another $200 billion will officially go into effect on August 30th when all procedures are completed. The brewing trade frictions drag RMB further down to 6.81 and otherwise push up costs for soybeans imported. Soybean meal spots therefore are underpinned to ramp up amid crushers' support for goods offers. Nonetheless, there is still limited upward potential for soybean meal prices in the near term factored in low meals demand in pigs industry and aquatic raising despite stocks accumulation and urgency for meals delivery. That being said, the number of live pigs in June decrease by 1.12% contrasting with last month, whilst heavy rains in South China areas no doubt have adverse effects on aquatic raising. Shorter term, soybean meal prices are mainly to move sideways narrowly tracking futures, therefore buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy for the moment rather than chase bids high. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: imported rapeseed meal prices up steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,350-2,530 yuan/tonne, some up 10-20 yuan/tonne (Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,350 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan 2,530 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian stops to quote). Ample supply of rapeseed and soybean imported and fairly high operation rate in mills actually are adverse to rallies in rapeseed meal, to illustrate, 25 Mln tonnes of soybeans will arrive at ports in July-and-September period and around 0.6 Mln tonnes of rapeseed arrivals this month amid former port stockpiles of soybeans over 8 Mln tonnes. To the extent that raised import costs after offshore RMB rate is further down to 6.8, unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth underpin rapeseed meal performance, To the extent that raised import costs after offshore RMB rate is further down to 6.8, unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth underpin rapeseed meal performance, therefore rapeseed meal shorter term is to trade sideways narrowly tracking futures with good momentum for growth. Buyers can take hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy for the moment or make small replenishment upon bargain buying if out of stock. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,300-11,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 42,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal in the near term is to maintain stable factored in good market demand, raised import costs amid RMB devaluation and holders' wait-and-see attitudes and mindsets for prices support. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,490-4,070 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.365 Mln tonnes with total 132 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 8 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. The U.S. former proposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods worth 16 billion US dollars are to take effect from today, and another $200 billion will officially go into effect on August 30th when all procedures are completed. The brewing trade frictions drag RMB further down to 6.81 and otherwise push up costs for soybeans imported. Imported soybean meal on the market therefore are underpinned by raised costs, crushers' support for goods offers and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth. On the whole, prices for imported soybean spots in near future will probably move upward steadily amid mixed long and short positions. 

    Daily review on oils: susceptible to finished arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals, US soybean oil was seen plunging overnight, accordingly, soybean oil on DCE today also narrows gains and palm oil otherwise edges down. Domestically, most soybean oil and palm oil spots maintain stable yet with few turnover. Stockpiles of soybean oil now pile up to 1.57 Mln tonnes assured by ample soybean supply for about 25 Mln tonnes of soybean will arrive at ports during July-and-September period in spite of oils-bloated phenomena and terrible urgency for goods delivery. In real terms, supply pressure does weigh on oils domestically on grounds of ongoing auction of soybean, soybean oil and rapeseed oil by State Reserves Bureau, and growing palm oil production in Malaysia in the third quarter when the right time, like Mid-Autumn Festival and China's National Day, for small packing oils has not yet come. The U.S. additional tariffs on Chinese goods worth 16 billion US dollars are to take effect from today, and the brewing trade conflicts send RMB down further to 6.8. Therefore helped by raised import costs and crushers’ strong support, oils spots in the near term are to move sideways narrowly with futures. Wisely, buyers at present had better take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,360-5,480 yuan/tonne, some up 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,440-5,450 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,360 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,480 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,360-5,370 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,660 and 4,720 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,690-4,700 yuan/tonne, being flat; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P09+80; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,720 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,660 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,730 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil keep firm, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,110-6,220 yuan/tonne (Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,140 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-170; Fujian stops to quote). Regardless, climbing import costs of soybean and rapeseed and great RMB devaluation to 6.8 amid trade frictions do underpin rapeseed oil performance, slack fundamentals still exert pressure on rapeseed oil like heavy oils stocks and ongoing auction of rapeseed oil, soybeans and soybean oil. Notably, about 0.6 Mln tonnes of rapeseed is to arrive this month and soybean oil has hits a high level of 1.57 Mln tonnes in stocks. Rapeseed oil prices shorter term are to move sideways narrowly in line with futures rather than suffer from great ups and downs, therefore buyers can take hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy for the moment. 

 Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, most domestic corn prices remain stable where some are a tad lower. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,830-1,920 yuan/tonne. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,710 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Albeit costs for grain auctioned are lifted by raised freight costs and delivery costs of grain auctioned whilst price premium for corn of good quality reserved is mostly seen in transaction, supply tensions in North China and traders' strong mindsets to support goods offers actually push up corn prices. Nonetheless, there is limited upward potential for corn prices amid supply pressure of grained auctioned and general demand in downstream end users. Corn prices on the domestic market are expected to edge up steadily. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: imported sorghum at ports prices steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,150 yuan/tonne mostly and some 2,100 yuan/tonne, Nantong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne mostly and some 2,000 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,320-2,350 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,800 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qiqihar offers 2,680 yuan/tonne; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum). Barley price at ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, and the reduction of sorghum in market share will otherwise boost market demand for barley. Therefore importers having goods at hand prefer to hold onto goods and support goods offers. Meantime high import costs for grain also give support to the market. Whereas, sluggish feed demand overall still drags grain market, and on this note, grain prices today keep high amid long and short positions and shorter term, grain is to keep firm. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.78)