China’s Soybean Crush Weekly (Week 29, 2018)

2018-07-23 www.cofeed.com

Given slow consumption in end users has led to increasing meal- and oil-bloated phenomena, mills have to control or suspend operation to ease pressure. Therefore national soybean crush this week (July 14th- 20th) is cut by 6.32% to 1,605,200 tonnes from 1,713,500 tonnes (1,268,108 tonnes of soybean meal, 304,988 tonnes of soybean oil), down 108,300 tonnes from last week. Meantime, soybean processing rate (capacity utilization) also declines to 46.47% from 49.60% last week, about 3.13 percentage points lower. Total soybean crush in week 30 next week, according to Cofeed, will probably be pegged at 1.70 Mln tonnes or so and 1.79 Mln tonnes in week 31 if operation rate edges up.

Based on current soybean processing capacity, July soybean crush estimates are revised downward to 7.61 Mln tonnes, lower than 7.6228 Mln tonnes attained in June and 7.95 Mln tonnes year on year.

Soybean crush in year 2017/2018 (as from 1 October 2017) now totals 70,916,170 tonnes, up 1,031,693 tonnes by 1.47% vis-a-vis 69,884,477 tonnes attained in year 2016/17. National soybean crush in calendar year 2018 (as from 1 January 2018) has totaled 46,580,550 tonnes, still 1.27% or 603,129 tonnes below 47,183,679 tonnes on a year-on-year basis.

Figure: Trends of Soybean Weekly Crush in China (2014-2018)

Details for weekly crush are shown as follows:

No	Area	Soybean Crush (mT)			Operation Rate (Capacity Utilization)
		Week 29	Week 28	Variation	Week 29	Week 28	Variation
1	Jiangsu	356,800	343,500	13,300	59.48%	57.26%	2.22%
3	Guangdong	233,700	228,200	5,500	57.86%	56.50%	1.36%
4	Guangxi	181,600	169,600	12,000	58.30%	54.45%	3.85%
5	Tianjin	119,450	131,600	-12,150	79.37%	87.44%	-8.07%
6	Fujian	103,200	103,800	-600	60.92%	61.28%	-0.35%
7	Hebei	86,000	86,000	0	47.25%	47.25%	0.00%
8	Liaoning	71,000	118,000	-47,000	31.55%	52.43%	-20.88%
9	Hubei	37,000	49,000	-12,000	75.51%	100.00%	-24.49%
10	Zhejiang	30,800	39,400	-8,600	26.51%	33.91%	-7.40%
11	Shaanxi	30,800	30,800	0	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%
12	Henan	28,950	41,600	-12,650	24.04%	34.55%	-10.51%
13	Sichuan	18,900	10,500	8,400	45.00%	25.00%	20.00%
14	Chongqing	16,800	5,000	11,800	80.00%	23.81%	56.19%
15	Hunan	8,800	10,600	-1,800	44.90%	54.08%	-9.18%
16	Jiangxi	7,000	7,000	0	58.82%	58.82%	0.00%
17	Heilongjiang	5,600	5,600	0	3.33%	3.33%	0.00%
18	Shanghai	2,500	0	2,500	9.65%	0.00%	9.65%
19	Anhui	2,400	8,400	-6,000	14.91%	52.17%	-37.27%
20	Inner Mongolia	2,000	0	2,000	16.81%	0.00%	16.81%
21	Jilin	0	12,000	-12,000	0.00%	15.58%	-15.58%
22	Shanxi	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
23	Xinjiang	0	4,200	-4,200	0.00%	75.00%	-75.00%
	China Total	1,605,200	1,713,500	-108,300	46.47%	49.60%	-3.14%

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