Comment: stockpiles of soybeans this week continue to fall as soybeans having arrived at ports have to wait in line due to slow unloading. In week 29 ended on July 20th, stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas total 6,426,900 tonnes, down 66,100 tonnes by 1.02% on the week as compared to 6,493,000 tonnes last week, but up 11.40% contrasting with 5,769,000 tonnes year on year. In general, stockpiles of soybeans next week are expected to maintain flat when soybean crushing is likely to reach 1.7 Mln tonnes, a weaker-than-normal level.

    Subject to overflowing soybean meal, some mills have to idle machines. That lowered operation rate thereby results in a slight reduction of meal stockpiles. Till July 20th, total stocks in costal major areas come into at 1,228,400 tonnes, down 24,700 tonnes from 1,253,100 tonnes by 1.97% on the week, but vis-a-vis 1,223,200 tonnes year on year, it is still up 0.42%. Stockpiles of soybean meal next week may further trend down if soybean crushing is lower than expectation.

    Traded volume of soybean meal is seen less and less upon new orders from last week, and as most mills engage in contract fulfillment, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts till July 20th, have been further down to 5,779,600 tonnes from 6,211,000 tonnes last week, about 431,400 tonnes or 6.94% lower, but contrasting with 4,415,500 tonnes year on year, it is still up 30.89%. 

              Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

          Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

       Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years