Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on July 24th

2018-07-24 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on July 24th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans ended overnight trading down, accordingly, meals futures on DCE pare gains amid low opens. Domestically, soybean meal spots continue to decline steadily. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,920 to 3,100 yuan/tonne, a steady decline of 20-40 yuan/tonne as compared with yesterday's (Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,920-2,960 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,960-3,000 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,050-3,100 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,020-3,050 yuan/tonne). Stockpiles of soybean meal in coastal areas edge down to 1.22 Mln tonnes by 2% on the week in wake of increasing idle plants in mills. And as meal-bloated phenomena continue in mills, especially in northern areas, terrible urgency for goods delivery is seen nationwide, as a result, soybean meal spots price down under pressure. Nonetheless, there is still limited downward potential for soybean meal prices in the near term on grounds of raised import costs amid great RMB devaluation and less soybean purchases in the fourth quarter. Besides, as crushers have strong mindsets to support goods offers, soybean meal prices shorter term are mainly to move sideways narrowly in line with futures. Wisely, buyers had better stand on the sideline and replenish proper inventories upon bargain hunting. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: imported rapeseed meal prices down steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,350-2,500 yuan/tonne, some down 10-20 yuan/tonne (Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,350 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan 2,500 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,480 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne). Ample supply of rapeseed and soybean imported, exceedingly high operation rate in mills, and unsatisfying meals demand in pigs raising and in aquatic raising after heavy rains in some southern areas actually are adverse to rapeseed meal performance, to illustrate, 25 Mln tonnes of soybeans will arrive at ports in July-and-September period and around 0.6 Mln tonnes of rapeseed arrivals this month. Yet to the extent that raised import costs for soybean sources after great devaluation of RMB, approaching weather speculation for US soybean growth, crushers' strong mindsets to support offers still underpin rapeseed meal performance, therefore rapeseed meal shorter term is to trade sideways narrowly tracking futures. Buyers can stay on the sideline for the moment. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,300-11,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 42,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Price variation of Fishmeal is limited for the present as holders prefer to take wait-and-see attitudes toward market and to support goods offers seeing robust market demand, slow stocks rises at ports and ongoing RMB devaluation. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable after sessions of declines, where non-GM imported soybean prices keep flat at 3,450-3,950 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.561 Mln tonnes with total 135 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 8 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply weighs down imported soybeans. In addition, slow consumption in businesses and limited demand in end users further drag down prices of non-GM imported soybeans. Susceptible to escalating trade tensions, Chinese buyers are forecast to buy less US soybeans in months ahead. Besides, worries about soybean sources in the fourth quarter amid the brewing trade war and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth have strengthened traders' support for goods offers, that is to say, imported soybeans on the market are underpinned. On the whole, imported soybeans in the long run will probably trade up amid trade fights onwards. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans ended overnight trading down as Chinese buyers abolished 165,000 tonnes of US soybeans in procurement contracts. Accordingly, oils on DCE today pare gains mildly, and soybean oil and palm oil spots also price down by 10-50 yuan/tonne with not much turnover when buyers are prone to stay on the sideline in case of market turbulence. Languishing prices now attract US soybean purchases from some countries, though intensifying US-China trade tensions still hover above US soybean market. That leads to robust exports weekly and gives favorable support to its market in the near term. Besides, hot weather worries also underpin US soybeans, therefore US soybeans shorter term are not to price down impressively but to move sideways within ranges. Yet, considerable supply and slack demand weigh down oils prices, by the way, turnover rate of rapeseed oil sold by State Reserves Bureau today settles at 11% and another 0.5 Mln tonnes of soybeans and 43,700 tonnes of soybean oil will be auctioned tomorrow. Overflowing meals in mills have sent oilseeds crushing to fall in the third consecutive week, consequently, oils spots underpinned by substantial RMB devaluation amid trade fights, falling stockpiles of soybean oil and crushers' support, are not expected to fall a lot. That is to say, oils performance will maintain slight oscillations till the stockpiling of small-packing oils in Mid-autumn Festival and China's National Day. Buyers thereby can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy for the moment. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,350-5,460 yuan/tonne, down 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,400-5,420 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,360 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,460 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,350 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,660 and 4,740 yuan/tonne, some down 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,650-4,680 yuan/tonne, a drop of 20 yuan/tonne; Rizhao offer 4,730-4,740 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,700 yuan/tonne, a decline of 50 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,660 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,730 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,100-6,230 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne (Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,140 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-170; Fujian stops to quote). Growing stockpiles, ongoing auction nationwide and expected booming oils production in Malaysia in the third quarter put considerable pressure on oils market. That being said, though only 2,377 tonnes of rapeseed oil is successfully traded among 59,352 tonnes projected to be sold today, another 500,000 tonnes of soybeans and 43,700 tonnes of soybean oil will be put into auction tomorrow. Add to that, stockpiles of rapeseed oil last week already rose to 490,000 tonnes by 14% on the week and soybean oil at 1,572,000 tonnes. Whereas, terrible RMB devaluation today and raised costs for imported soybean and rapeseed somehow underpin rapeseed oil performance, that is to say, rapeseed oil in the near term is to trade sideways narrowly and frequently tracking futures amid mixed long and short positions, therefore buyers had better stay on the sideline for the moment. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,830-1,920 yuan/tonne, only Yishui county lowers prices by 10 yuan/tonne. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,715-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Ample supply of old grain amid ongoing auction and scattered supply of early new corn in some southern areas though speed up goods delivery among traders, businesses are mostly inclined to maintain a safe inventory level and keep cautious about corn purchases factored in sluggish demand for downstream products. However, common price premium of corn traded, short supply of good-quality corn, and raised freight costs to some extent underpin corn prices, and on the whole, corn prices on the domestic are to trade sideways slightly and steadily in the near term. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,150 yuan/tonne mostly and some 2,100 yuan/tonne, Nantong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne mostly and some 2,000 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,320-2,350 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,800 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum). Barley price at ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, and the reduction of sorghum in market share will otherwise boost market demand for barley. Therefore importers having goods at hand prefer to hold onto goods and support goods offers. Meantime high import costs for grain also give support to the market. Whereas, sluggish feed demand overall still drags grain market, and shorter term, grain is to keep firm. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.81)