According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 29 (till July 20th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
Unit: 0’000 tonnes
|
Area/Enterprise
|
Soybean Oil Stocks
|
Soybean Oil in
Outstanding Contracts
|
|
|
Week 29
|
Week 28
|
Variation
|
Week 29
|
Week 28
|
Variation
|
|
Northeast China
|
7.63
|
7.8
|
-0.17
|
10
|
10.4
|
-0.4
|
|
North China
|
30.35
|
30.07
|
0.28
|
22.78
|
24.7
|
-1.92
|
|
Shandong
|
13.2
|
12.89
|
0.31
|
12.068
|
12.73
|
-0.662
|
|
East China
|
53.4
|
49.1
|
4.3
|
33.55
|
33.75
|
-0.2
|
|
Guangdong
|
14.01
|
13.78
|
0.23
|
26.05
|
27.35
|
-1.3
|
|
Guangxi
|
13.51
|
13.06
|
0.45
|
13.2
|
14.4
|
-1.2
|
|
Fujian
|
9.68
|
10.2
|
-0.52
|
2.95
|
3.1
|
-0.15
|
|
Henan
|
3.31
|
3.52
|
-0.21
|
0.56
|
0.72
|
-0.16
|
|
Sichuan
|
2.7
|
3.14
|
-0.44
|
3.16
|
3.23
|
-0.07
|
|
Others
|
8.58
|
13.05
|
-4.47
|
1.75
|
1.91
|
-0.16
|
|
Total
|
156.37
|
156.61
|
-0.24
|
126.068
|
132.29
|
-6.222
|
Stockpiles of soybean oil are seen falling this week, and according to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories ended July 20th is cut by 0.15% or 2,400 tonnes to 1,563,700 tonnes from 1,566,100 tonnes last week, but vis-a-vis 1,413,000 tonnes the same week last month, it is up 150,700 tonnes by 10.67%. Meantime, it is also up 218,700 tonnes by 16.26% from 1,345,000 tonnes, and on the very note, average stocks of soybean oil in recent five years now settle at 1,253,390 tonnes.
Given slow consumption in end users has led to increasing meal- and oil-bloated phenomena, mills have to control or suspend operation to ease pressure. Therefore national soybean crush this week is cut by 6.32% to 1,605,200 tonnes (1,268,108 tonnes of soybean meal, 304,988 tonnes of soybean oil) from 1,713,500 tonnes, down 108,300 tonnes from last week. Meantime, soybean processing rate (capacity utilization) also declines to 46.47% from 49.60% last week, about 3.13 percentage points lower. Total soybean crush in week 30 next week, according to Cofeed, will probably be pegged at 1.70 Mln tonnes or so and 1.79 Mln tonnes in week 31 if operation rate edges up. As the operation rate falls in the third consecutive week, soybean oil declines in stockpiles.
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
