Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on July 26th

2018-07-26 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on July 26th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans in overnight trading continued to end up, accordingly, meals futures on DCE today also rise mildly amid high opens. Domestically, soybean meal spots mostly keep stable amid some rises. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,960 to 3,130 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne as compared with yesterday's (Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,930-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,990-3,030 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,100-3,130 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,030-3,080 yuan/tonne). The rallies in US soybeans these days are mainly attributed to US plan for soybean purchases from its farmers who are now afflicted with additional tariffs, and US soybeans today expand rises in the Globex. Albeit higher prices of Brazilian soybeans than US soybeans, less soybean purchases among Chinese oilseeds crushers in the fourth quarter send and crushers' strong mindsets for goods offers all send soybean meal spots to rise mildly, yet low meals demand in pigs raising and in aquatic raising due to heavy rains earlier fail to relieve meal-bloated phenomena in mills. What' more, market news goes that China is to find an approach to cut soybean meal consumption by lowering down protein ratios, if implemented nationwide, demand for soybean meal will be downsized to some extent. Therefore considerable pressure weighs on soybean meal and rallies in spots are seen far weaker than futures outside domestic market. Shorter term, soybean meal is to rebound mildly on conditions that futures outside domestic market trend up, therefore buyers had better maintain proper inventory levels and keep cautious when chasing bids high. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go steady amid some fluctuations, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,380-2,520 yuan/tonne with a fluctuation of 10-30 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,380 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,520 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,500 yuan/tonne). To the extent that rapeseed meal performance is bolstered by ongoing RMB devaluation and falling stockpiles of rapeseed meal in South China-- 51% lower year on year, yet overflowing soybean meal in mills and lowered meals demand in pigs raising and aquatic raising susceptible to heavy rains in some southern areas otherwise put a cap on rapeseed meal rallies. On this point, rapeseed meal shorter term is mainly to trade sideways with good momentum for growth. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,300-11,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 43,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Though new-season fishmeal is arriving at ports, robust demand slows down stocks rises, therefore fishmeal in the near term is to maintain stable. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,450-3,950 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.561 Mln tonnes with total 135 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 8 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply weighs down imported soybeans. In addition, slow consumption in businesses and limited demand in end users further drag down prices of non-GM imported soybeans. Higher prices of Brazilian soybeans than US soybeans, less soybean sources in the fourth quarter and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth have strengthened traders' support for goods offers, that is to say, imported soybeans on the market are underpinned. On the whole, imported soybeans in the long run will probably trade up amid trade fights onwards. 

    Daily review on oils: oils futures at home and abroad further go up, attributed to technical buying and rallying crude oil, accordingly, soybean oil and palm oil spots rise by 20-40 yuan/tonne. Overall turnover is still not much though lower prices do attract some deals. As the US plans to support its farmer $ 12 billion to alleviate their affliction in the trade war, including direct purchases, US soybeans theses days are seen rebounding. Great RMB devaluation amid trade fights and low operation rate in meal-bloated mills though send soybean oil stockpiles to edge down, oils performance is still dragged down by slack oil demand but heavy supply-- about 0.08 Mln tonnes of rapeseed oil, 0.46 Mln tonnes of soybeans and 0.06 Mln tonnes of soybean oil imported will be auctioned next Wednesday. Add to that, Malaysian palm oil is also accumulating in its stockpiles when production increases. Oils spots in the near term are forecast to oscillate narrowly in line with futures, therefore buyers are suggested to make small replenishment upon bargain hunting and maintain cautious if chasing high bids. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,400-5,520 yuan/tonnes, increasing by 20-40 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,460-5,470 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,390 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,520 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,400-5,420 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 4,680-4,770 yuan/tonne, most increasing by 20-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,700-4,710 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30 yuan/tonne; Rizhao 4,770 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,720 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 4,680 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,750 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,150-6,260 yuan/tonne, up 10-30 yuan/tonne. Heavy stockpiles still weigh on oils performance though great RMB devaluation and surging costs for imported sources underpin rapeseed oil on the market. In detail, auction of soybeans, soybean oil and rapeseed oil is to be conducted next Wednesday and golden stockpiling for small-packing oils still have a long way to go till Mid-autumn Festival and National Day. Generally speaking, rapeseed oil is forecast to trade sideways narrowly and frequently in line with futures amid intricate long and short positions, therefore buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting rather than chase bid high when US soybeans rebound helped by the US administration. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable though some price down. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some down 6-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,715-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Ongoing corn auction-- about 8 Mln tonnes to be auctioned on August 2nd-3rd, and scattered supply of early new corn in some southern areas though replenish market supply, corn demand is not that satisfying given downstream businesses maintain cautious about corn purchases and are mostly inclined to a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. However, costs for old corn and rigid corn demand in the after market to some extent will limit its prices to fall. On the whole, corn on the domestic is to trade sideways narrowly in the near term, whist attention should still be paid to spring corn supplying in the South.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,150 yuan/tonne mostly and some 2,100 yuan/tonne, Nantong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne mostly and some 2,000 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,320-2,350 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,800 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum). Barley price at ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, and the reduction of sorghum in market share will otherwise boost market demand for barley. Therefore importers having goods at hand prefer to hold onto goods and support goods offers. Meantime grain underpinned by high import costs in the near term is on a strong note. Whereas, sluggish feed demand overall still drags down grain market, and shorter term barley will go weaker than sorghum. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.78)