Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on July 27th

2018-07-27 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on July 27th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: as the US and the EU reached an armistice on trade conflicts, European countries are possible to import more US soybeans, and in addition, the US government plans to purchase soybeans directly from its farmers. Such being the case, US soybeans overnight continued to surge, but only edged up in the closing due to profit taking. By contrast, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange today edge down and soybean meal spots also price down steadily. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,930 to 3,100 yuan/tonne, a steady reduction of 10-30 yuan/tonne compared with yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,930-2,970 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,990-3,020 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,080-3,100 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,030-3,080 yuan/tonne). Generally, subject to low live pigs raising and ample meal stockpiles in feed businesses, soybean meal is seen low in delivery with meal-bloated phenomena persisting in mills. And as market news goes that China's Development and Reform Commission calls for all feed businesses to develop ways to lower protein proportion, thus cutting soybean meal uses. If such ways are found and implemented nationwide in August, domestic demand for soybean meal will be seen less than overseas. However, rallying Brazilian soybeans and great RMB devaluation amid US-China trade fights will underpin soybean costs to trend up, besides worries about soybean sources later also win crushers support for meals prices. Soybean meal is not to plunge a lot but to go on a relatively strong note in the near term, therefore buyers had better stay on the sideline for the present and keep cautious about market trends in the medium and long term. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,350-2,510 yuan/tonne, falling 10-20 yuan/tonne (Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,360 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 20 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan 2,510 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian stops to quote). Regardless, exceedingly high rapeseed processing rate backed by ample rapeseed supply in mills and lowered meals demand in aquatic raising susceptible to heavy rains in some southern areas put a cap on rapeseed meal rallies. Rapeseed meal performance is otherwise bolstered by great RMB devaluation, surging import costs and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth. Rapeseed meal shorter term is to trade sideways narrowly tracking futures. Buyers can take hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy for the moment. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,300-11,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 43,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal in the near term is to maintain stable on grounds that goods holders would prefer to stay on the sideline and support goods offers in view of slow stockpiles rises and RMB devaluation. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,450-3,950 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.561 Mln tonnes with total 135 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 8 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply weighs down imported soybeans. In addition, slow consumption in businesses and limited demand in end users further drag down prices of non-GM imported soybeans. However, rallying Brazilian soybeans and great RMB devaluation amid US-China trade fights will underpin soybean costs to trend up, besides worries about soybean sources later and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth also win crushers support for prices. That is to say, imported soybeans on the market are underpinned. On the whole, imported soybeans will probably trade up later on the market amid trade fights onwards. 

    Daily review on oils: on grounds that European countries are possible to import more US soybeans after the armistice between the US and EU and the US government also plans to purchase soybeans directly from its farmers, US soybeans overnight continued to surge, but only edged up in the closing due to profit taking. US soybean oil otherwise went down after eased arbitrage of buying oils and selling meal. Accordingly, oils on DCE today ramp up from the price bottom in the morning, whist most soybean oil spots on the domestic market today keep stable amid some drops and palm oil spots go on oscillations in part. Still, overall turnover is still not much. RMB devaluation to 6.8 amid trade fights and low operation rate in meal-bloated mills send soybean oil stockpiles to edge down, whilst China is said to put teeth in soybean meal reduction by lowering down protein proportion, as such, oilseeds crushing is to be lowered and oils on the domestic market will have resistance to fall. However, considerable pressure from slack demand in end users, projected auction in next Wednesday and accumulating Malaysian palm oil in stockpiles continues to put pressure on oils rallies. Shorter term, oils spots are to move sideways narrowly and buyer had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy in case oils market is probably improved after intensive stockpiling in upcoming Chinese holidays. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,400-5,520 yuan/tonnes, some down 10-40 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,460-5,470 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,380 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,520 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,400-5,420 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,690 and 4,770 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne in part (Tianjin traders offer 4,690-4,700 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P09+80; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,720 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,690 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 4,730 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil go steady amid some variations, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,150-6,260 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-170; Fujian stops to quote). Though rapeseed oil on one hand is underpinned by raised import costs after RMB devaluation and futures rallies on CBOT, heavy stockpiles of soybean oil and rapeseed, ongoing auction by State Reserves Bureau and growing Malaysian palm oil in stockpiles still weigh on oils performance, especially when golden stockpiling for small-packing oils has not yet come. Generally speaking, rapeseed oil is forecast to trade sideways narrowly in line with futures, therefore buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices are stable amid some declines. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some down 6-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,715-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Supply of corn auction grows larger and larger after rallying corn prices in North China and active shipments among traders, add to that, southern spring corn is to increase the market supply in August, therefore such considerable supply pressure weighs on auctioned grain in northeast and dampens market sentiments. As some hoarders in North China speed up corn sales, corn buying prices in some Shandong businesses these two days are seen falling again, meantime, cautious attitudes towards corn purchases among downstream feed businesses also subdue corn prices on the market. Nonetheless, costs for old corn and rigid corn demand later to some extent will limit its prices to fall. On the whole, corn on the domestic is to trade sideways narrowly in the near term. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,150 yuan/tonne mostly and some 2,100 yuan/tonne, Nantong 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne mostly and some 2,000 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,320-2,350 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,800 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Hinggan League 2,700 yuan/tonne; Jilin 2,700 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum). Barley price at ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, and the reduction of sorghum in market share will otherwise boost market demand for barley. Therefore importers having goods at hand prefer to hold onto goods and support goods offers. Meantime grain underpinned by high import costs in the near term is on a strong note. Whereas, sluggish feed demand overall still drags down grain market, and shorter term grain is to go stable. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.83)