Today is 01/10/2025

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on July 31st

2018-07-31 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on July 31st), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans ended overnight trading up, accordingly, meals on DCE today go high amid high opens and soybean meal spots also price up on the domestic market. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,020 to 3,170 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-50 yuan/tonne as compared with yesterday's (Tianjin prices 3,040 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,020-3,050 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,050-3,100 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,130-3,160 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,070-3,130 yuan/tonne). It's said that China, as it were, has to import US soybeans to meet domestic demand on grounds that soybean yield potentials are probably hurt by dry weather and soybean supply in South America may fall later. In the meantime, further RMB devaluation pushes up soybean costs, and crushers' strong support for meals prices and positive attitudes toward after market actually underpin rallies of spots than futures. Nevertheless, subject to low live pigs raising, prevailing meal-bloated phenomena in mills, and government's decision to lower down soybean meal usage in feed ingredient among businesses to stage counter-attack to trade war, rallies in soybean meal spots will be capped. On the whole, soybean meal prices in the near term are to rise gradually and trade sideways in accordance with futures frequently, therefore buyers are suggested to make replenishment upon bargain hunting rather than chase bids high. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal edge up steadily, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,380-2,520 yuan/tonne with a rise of 10 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang offers 2,410 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,520 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers 2,500 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne). In the midst of brewing trade fights between China and the US, further RMB devaluation and rallying US soybeans due to dry weather push up import costs of oilseeds. Furthermore, rapeseed meal prices are also bolstered in the golden time for aquatic raising, and crushers mostly turn an optimistic attitude toward after market and prefer to support goods offers. But rallies in prices will not go impressive for the moment if factored in accumulating soybean meal and rapeseed meal stockpiles and high operation rate in mills backed by ample rapeseed supply. Shorter term, rapeseed meal is to trade sideways tracking futures with relatively strong momentum for growth, therefore buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal pick up steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, up 100-200 yuan/tonne from yesterday; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 45,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 44,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal is to maintain stale on the market given hoarders have strong mindsets for offers in light of limited stock rises and raised import costs. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for imported soybeans decline steadily, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,450-3,900 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from yesterday and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.561 Mln tonnes with total 135 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 8 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply weighs down imported soybeans. In addition, slow consumption in businesses and limited demand in end users further drag down prices of non-GM imported soybeans. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported soybeans also undermines price competitiveness of imported soybeans and futher weighs down the market. However, great RMB devaluation amid US-China trade fights will underpin soybean costs to trend up, and worries about soybean sources later and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth also win crushers support for prices. That is to say, imported soybeans on the market are underpinned. On the whole, imported soybeans in the short run will probably trade down amid trade fights, but later may go up on the market. 

    Daily review on oils: based on good export outlook and susceptible soybean yield amid dry weather, US soybeans rose further in overnight trading. Accordingly, oils on DCE today go up mildly, where soybean oil spots mostly price up and palm oil spots otherwise price down partially on the domestic market. Turnover upon higher prices is not much, and that of lower prices otherwise attract some deals. US soybeans are expected to break through 900 cents the time Brazilian basis also rises, whilst RMB devaluation to 6.83 amid trade fights further pushes up import costs, and thus sending domestic oils futures up. However, intensive stockpiling for small-packing oils is to conduct after mid-August, therefore fundamental factors like slack demand in end users, ongoing auction by State Reserves Bureau and accumulating Malaysian palm oil in stockpiles together with accumulating soybean oil in stocks to 1.59 Mln tonnes continue to put pressure on oils rallies. As such, oils shorter term are mainly to trade sideways with strong momentum for growth and are expected to price up further when the golden stockpiling for packing oils is launched. Buyers are suggested to make replenishment properly upon bargain buying rather than chase bids high. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,460-5,580 yuan/tonnes, most increasing by 10-20 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,520 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,460 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiaang traders 5,580 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,460-5,470 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,690 and 4,790 yuan/tonne, some down 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,710-4,720 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer 4,790 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,720 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,690 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 4,770 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,110-6,220 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne with few turnover (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-170; Fujian stops to quote). Fragile oils fundamentals, pending golden stockpiling for small-packing oils and ongoing auction for soybeans, soybean oil and rapeseed oil tomorrow though drag down rapeseed oil on the market, RMB devaluation under trade conflicts pushes up import costs of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and falling stockpiles nationwide last week to 0.48 Mln tonnes by 2% on the week also underpin rapeseed oil. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is to go on a fairly strong note and trade sideways frequently tracking futures, therefore buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, most domestic corn prices remain stable where some fall further. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some down 4-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,715-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Supply pressure on corn auction persists, add to that, southern spring corn is to increase the market supply, therefore traders engage themselves in shipments and hoarders in North China speed up sales amid ample supply. Yet grain-processed businesses in Shandong these day hold down corn buying prices after increased supply. Meantime, small-and-medium feed sectors would prefer to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy given supply in downstream feed sectors is sufficient. Nonetheless, costs for old corn reserved and rigid demand for corn of good quality later to some extent still limit its prices to fall. On the whole, corn on the domestic is to trade sideways weakly and steadily in the near term subjected to bearish fundamentals. Additionally, extreme weather conditions in the northeast recently like heavy rains, drought also pose adverse effects on new corn yield this year. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices up steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,120-2,130 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,240 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, Nantong 2,030-2,050 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,300-2,350 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,400 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,700 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 2,900 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Hinggan League 2,700 yuan/tonne). Barley price at ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,820-1,850 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies. Therefore importers having goods at hand prefer to hold onto goods and support goods offers. Meantime high import costs for grain also give support to the market and sorghum prices at some ports ramp up today. Whereas, sluggish barley demand overall still weighs on the market. Shorter term, barley will be seen weaker than sorghum in performance. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.83)