Today (on August 1st), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans rose sharply in overnight trading, hitting the one-month-and-a-half high, after news goes that the US is to resume talks with China about bilateral trades. Yet the trade truce actually puts domestic market into a bearish stance, as a consequence, meals on DCE today pare gains amid low opens and soybean meal spots on the domestic market also price down steadily yet with few turnover. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,020 to 3,160 yuan/tonne, a steady decline of 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin prices 3,030 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,000-3,040 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,060-3,100 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,130-3,160 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,080-3,100 yuan/tonne). Slow meals shipments and slack meals demand in low live pigs and in aquatic raising fail to relieve mills from meal-bloated phenomena fully, and as thus, soybean meal is hard to price up all along. Nonetheless, rallying import costs for soybeans at ports due to surging US soybeans and great RMB devaluation, strong support for meals prices among crushers amid falling crush margins and losses in spots and in futures (net profits), otherwise underpin soybean meal spots to go stronger than futures, and negative basis for spots is also seen rising. Overall, soybean meal is expected to trend up, and move sideways frequently amid capricious trade spats. According to the latest news today, the US administration is to revise previous additional tariffs of 10% upward to 25% on Chinese goods worth up to 200 billion US dollars, and susceptible to that, soybeans on the Globex today falls by 9 cents. Buyers are suggested to stay on the sideline and make proper replenishment when prices go steady.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,320-2,500 yuan/tonne, falling 20-40 yuan/tonne (Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,400 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 20 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan 2,500 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian stops to quote). On one hand, accumulating stockpiles of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and high rapeseed processing rate in mills backed by ample rapeseed weigh down rapeseed meal on the market, in detail, rapeseed meal in coastal areas rises to 39,000 tonnes by 9% on the week and soybean meal to 1.24 Mln tonnes by 2% on the week. On the other hand, rapeseed meal performance are bolstered given further RMB devaluation amid brewing trade fights and rallying US soybeans due to dry weather push up import costs of oilseeds. In the meantime, as China's Development and Reform Commission is said to call for all feed businesses to cut soybean meal consumption in feed ingredient by lowering down protein ratios and to substitute soybean meal with mixed meals, rapeseed meal performance is thereby fueled and also underpinned by expanded meals demand in aquatic raising. Shorter term, rapeseed meal is not to fall impressively, but to trade sideways narrowly tracking futures with relatively strong momentum for growth, therefore buyers had better make proper replenishment when prices go steady.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 9,800 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 44,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 43,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal is to maintain stale on the market given hoarders have strong mindsets for offers in light of limited stock rises and robust market demand.
Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable after sessions of declines, where non-GM imported soybean prices keep flat at 3,450-3,900 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.561 Mln tonnes with total 135 vessels in July, 8.5 Mln tonnes in August, and 8 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply weighs down imported soybeans. In addition, slow consumption in businesses and limited demand in end users further drag down prices of non-GM imported soybeans. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported soybeans also undermines price competitiveness of imported soybeans and further weighs down the market. However, great RMB devaluation amid US-China trade fights will underpin soybean costs to trend up, and worries about soybean sources later and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth also win crushers support for prices. That is to say, imported soybeans on the market are underpinned. On the whole, imported soybeans in the short run will probably trade down amid trade fights, but later may go up on the market.
Daily review on oils: as the United States and China are expected to restart talks, US soybeans in overnight trading broke through 900-cent mark and hit a record high in a month and a half. However, possibly resumed negotiations between the two largest economies are not favorable for domestic market, accordingly, oils on DCE today edge down with oscillations. Domestically, soybean oil spots on the domestic market mostly go stable amid some blips and palm oil spots otherwise price down, yet turnover is still not much. Albeit great RMB devaluation, rallying US soybeans and Brazilian basis do bolster oils performance, intensive stockpiling for small-packing oils is to conduct after mid-August, therefore such fundamental factors as slack demand in end users, ongoing auction by State Reserves Bureau and accumulating Malaysian palm oil in stockpiles together with accumulating soybean oil in stocks to 1.60 Mln tonnes-- quite closer to the record high 1.7 Mln tonnes attained last year-- put greater and greater pressure on oils supply. As such, oils spots shorter term are mainly to trade sideways with strong momentum for growth. It's said that the US administration plans to revise former 10 percent of additional tariffs upward to 25% on $ 200 billions of Chinese goods, and as such, soybeans on the Globex today slip by 9 cents. Subject to trade conflicts, prices move sideways frequently, therefore buyers had better stay on the sideline for the moment.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,450-5,540 yuan/tonnes, some in a variation of 10-40 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,520 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,460 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiaang traders 5,540 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,450-5,460 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,690 and 4,770 yuan/tonne, some down 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,710-4,720 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P09+60 for August delivery; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,710 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,690 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 4,770 yuan/tonne).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,100-6,250 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne with few turnover (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-170; Fujian stops to quote). Fragile oils fundamentals like pending golden stockpiling for small-packing oils, ongoing auction and growing soybean oil to 1.59 Mln tonnes in stockpiles still drag down rapeseed oil on the market. Particularly, another auction will be scheduled next Wednesday with soybeans 0.3 Mln tonnes, soybean oil 0.05 Mln tonnes and rapeseed oil 0.06 Mln tonnes though only 4,250 tonnes of rapeseed oil is successfully traded today among projected 76,932 tonnes. Yet sharp RMB devaluation today under trade conflicts pushes up import costs of soybean and rapeseed and thus underpin rapeseed oil. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways frequently tracking futures with long and short positions mixed, therefore buyers may as well stay on the sideline for the moment.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable though some further edge down. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some further down 4-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,715-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Corn is now sufficient in supply given ongoing auction of corn reserved-- another 8 Mln tonnes on August 9th and 10th next week and bulks of corn traded to be shipped, add to that, early new corn is to increase the market supply. Shorter term, corn prices are expected to go stable with weak momentum factored in unimproved demand in the downstream. Prices reduction in Shandong province these day also cuts corn supply on market and consequently eases its declines. Furthermore, costs for old corn reserved and price premiums for reserved corn auction to some extent limit its prices to fall.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum at ports go steady (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,120-2,130 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,240 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, Nantong 2,030-2,050 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,050 yuan/tonne, Guangdong offers 1,880 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,300-2,350 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,400 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,700 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 2,900 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Hinggan League 2,700 yuan/tonne). Barley price at ports keep firm (Shandong offers 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,820-1,850 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be cut off given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies. Therefore importers having goods at hand prefer to hold onto goods and support goods offers. Meantime high import costs for grain also give support to the market and sorghum prices at some ports ramp up today. Whereas, sluggish barley demand overall still weighs on the market. Shorter term, barley will be seen weaker than sorghum in performance.
(USD $1=CNY 6.80)