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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on August 6th

2018-08-06 www.cofeed.com
  Today (on August 6th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans last Friday ended up, accordingly, meals on DCE today edge up. Domestically, soybean meal spots trade up steadily yet with few turnover. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,020 to 3,120 yuan/tonne, a steady rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin prices 3,080 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,010-3,050 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,060-3,080 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,120-3,140 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,060-3,080 yuan/tonne). Though Chinese RMB ramps up today, overall devaluation still pushes up costs of soybean imported, whist strong support for meal prices among crushers amid losses in spots and crush margins also underpin soybean meal. Add to that, subject to several days of hot weather, crushers either suspend or limit operation in some areas, where most Tianjin mills are forced to idle plants for one week, and mills in Rizhao are required to limit operation by 30%. That suspension and limitation help to cut soybean meal in stockpiles and thereby boost its prices today. Nevertheless, there is still limited upward potentials for soybean meal prices factored in low live pig raising. Particularly, susceptible to environmental protection, raisers have little interest in pig raising amid low profits. Generally speaking, soybean meal is to trade sideways frequently tracking futures yet with good momentum for growth, in this way, buyers had better make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting rather than chase bids high. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices up, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,370-2,500 yuan/tonne, up 20-30 yuan/tonne (Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,380 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan 2,500 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian stops to report). Rapeseed meal on the market though is underpinned by raised imported costs, when protracted trade conflicts lead to RMB devaluation, ample supply of meals at home otherwise hover above rapeseed meal performance. Particularly, around 16.4 Mln tonnes of soybeans are expected during August-and-September period, in the meanwhile, rapeseed processing rate is likely to hit an exceedingly high based ample rapeseed though rapeseed meal this week in south China has already reached 43,000 tonnes in stockpiles, a rise of 22% on the week. On this point, rapeseed meal in the near term is to trade sideways narrowly tracking futures, buyers thereby had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal pick up steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne, up 200 yuan/tonne from last Friday; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 45,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 44,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. As hoarders show great support for fishmeal offers seeing fairly robust demand and slow rises in stocks, price variation is seen capped. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,450-3,900 yuan/tonne, basically flat vis-a-vis last Friday, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.561 Mln tonnes with total 135 vessels in July, 8.48 Mln tonnes in August, and 8 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply weighs down imported soybeans. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported soybeans also undermines price competitiveness imported soybeans, and limited delivery further weighs down imported soybeans for distribution. However, great RMB devaluation amid US-China trade fights will underpin soybean costs to trend up, and worries about soybean sources later and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth also win crushers support for prices. That is to say, imported soybeans on the market are underpinned. On the whole, imported soybeans in the short run will probably trade down amid trade fights, but later may go up on the market. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybean reached the nadir in the week at the news that China was resolved to slap 5-20% of additional tariffs on $ 60 billion of US imports, yet boosted by short covering, it finally ended up in trading. Accordingly, oils on DCE today rise mildly, where soybean oil and palm oil spots also trade up yet with few turnover. Albeit RMB edges up to 6.84, overall devaluation still drives up costs of imported soybean, and for another, losses in soybean crush also sends oils to trade up though in oscillations. Yet, assured by ample soybeans, soybean crush reached 1.77 Mln tonnes last week and in the following two weeks is expected to hit a fresh high of 1.85 Mln or above, such growing crush thereby puts more and more pressure on soybean oil stocks. In addition, ongoing auction by State Reserves Bureau and growing stockpiles of palm oil in producing areas also limit upward potential for oil prices. Wisely, buyers had better make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting rather than chase high bids too far. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,500-5,620 yuan/tonnes, increasing by 20-50 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,540-5,550 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,500 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,620 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,500-5,510 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,720 and 4,830 yuan/tonne, up 20-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,770-4,780 yuan/tonne, a rise of 40 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 4,830 tonnes, up 40 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,750 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,720 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders stop to quote). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,120-6,300 yuan/tonne with low turnove, some up 10-20 yuan/tonne (Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-170; Fujian stops to quote). To be sure, raising import costs of soybean and rapeseed motivated by RMB devaluation though bolster rapeseed oil, such factors as growing oil stockpiles, ongoing auction and considerable oil supply still limit upward potentials for rapeseed oil on the market. Notably, rapeseed oil last week in South China and East China rose to 119,000 tonnes by 4% and 355,000 tonnes, respectively. Generally, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways frequently tracking futures in the near term, therefore buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable though some are a tad lower. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne though some are mixed in offers. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne, and 1,715-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn, all being flat as compared to last week. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,700 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), up 10 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong settle at 1,820-1,840 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Corn supply is now growing on the market given ongoing auction of old corn reserved and supplying of early Spring corn in the South. Regardless, operating rate falls in deep processors, corn performance is further capped especially when dismal livestock raising gives little improvement to corn demand in feed ingredient. However, costs for old corn reserved and rigid demand on the market still win crushers' support for corn prices and limit downward potential for corn prices. Overall, corn in the near term is to trade sideways and maintain stable yet with weak momentum. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices up (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,160 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, up 40 yuan/tonne, and 2,260 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, up 20 yuan/tonne; Nantong 2,050 yuan/tonne, up 20yuan/tonne; Shanghai 2,050 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,950 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,330 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,430 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum with a rise of 30; Qingdao 2,400 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,500 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,700 yuan/tonne; Qiqihar 2,700 yuan/tonne; Chifeng 2,900 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Hinggan League 2,700 yuan/tonne, Changchun in Jilin 2,740 yuan/tonne, down 80). Barley price at ports maintain stable amid some rises (Shandong offers 1,910-1,920 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,920 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,840 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be sharply curtailed given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, whilst costs for Australian sorghum also remain high for the present. On the other hand, wineries at home will restart operation in mid-to-late August, as thus, another round of stockpiling will come on the market. That good fundamentals thereby lead to strong will for higher offers among importers. Though sorghum has stronger performance than barley as the latter is sluggish in demand and high in import costs, grain shorter term will mainly go on the rise. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.84)