Today is 01/10/2025

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on August 7th

2018-08-07 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on August 7th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans ended overnight trading down under escalating trade conflicts, nevertheless, meals on DCE today trade up followed by rallying soybean meal spots since the heat-up of trade war is actually favorable for domestic market. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,040 to 3,160 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20-40 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,110 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,040-3,080 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,090-3,130 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,130-3,160 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,100-3,120 yuan/tonne). Stricken by several days of scorched weather, most Tianjin mills are forced to idle plants for one week, and mills in Rizhao are otherwise required to limit operation to 30% from August 4th to 14th. That suspension and limitation help to cut soybean meal in stockpiles and thereby boost its prices today. On one hand, not much demand for soybean meal and heavy stockpiles still put a cap on its spot rises. On the other hand, strong US soybean under robust export outlooks and capricious weather in growing areas and raised soybean costs amid RMB depreciation give support to soybean meal and sent meal to trend up overall. In this way, buyers had better make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting rather than chase bids high too far. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal pick up, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,390-2,530 yuan/tonne with a rise of 20-30 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Great Ocean in Guangxi offers 2,400 yuan/tonne, with a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,530 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,480 yuan/tonne, growing by 20 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed meal prices on the market though are underpinned by good turnover as the golden time aquatic raising comes, rising operation rate assured by ample soybean and rapeseed supply in the following weeks will somehow weigh on rapeseed meal market. With mixed long and short positions, rapeseed meal in the near term is to trade sideways narrowly tracking futures and is expected to ramp up, buyers thereby had better make proper replenishment and maintain cautious if chase high bids. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 46,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 46,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. As hoarders show great support for fishmeal offers seeing fairly good demand and raised import costs amid protracted RMB devaluation, price variation is seen capped. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,450-3,900 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.561 Mln tonnes with total 135 vessels in July, 8.48 Mln tonnes in August, and 8 Mln tonnes in September. Such ample supply weighs down imported soybeans. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported soybeans also undermines price competitiveness imported soybeans, and limited delivery further weighs down imported soybeans for distribution. However, great RMB devaluation to 6.85 will underpin soybean costs to trend up, and worries about soybean sources later and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth also win crushers support for prices. That is to say, imported soybeans on the market are underpinned. On the whole, imported soybeans in the short run will probably trade down amid trade fights, but later may go up on the market. 

    Daily review on oils: soybean imports is probably cut by 10 Mln tonnes or more this year provided if China's feed businesses cut protein of soybean meal in feed ingredient and expand such meal imports as sunflower meal and palm kernel meal. That pressure on US soybean exports weighs down futures on CBOT, meals on DCE today otherwise ramp up. Domestically, soybean oil spots price up steadily and some palm oil spots down, yet turnover is not much overall. Soybean crush is now at a loss when soybean costs are driven up all along by further offshore RMB rate depreciation to 6.85, in this case, oils at home show resistance to fall. Whereas, oils shorter term are not to rebound by leaps and bounds factored in sufficiently large supply, ongoing auction by State Reserves Bureau and growing stockpiles of palm oil in producing areas. Notably, assured by 8 Mln tonnes of soybean stocks at ports and expected 16.9 Mln tonnes soybean arrivals during August-to-September period, soybean crush in the following two weeks is likely to hit a higher level at 1.8 Mln tonnes with soybean oil stockpiles at around 1.6 Mln tonnes. Generally speaking, oils are to trade sideways frequently tracking futures and turn better in performance till intensive stockpiling of packing oil in mid-to-late August. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,520-5,620 yuan/tonnes, some further increasing by 10 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,540-5,550 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,500 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,620 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,520 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,720 and 4,820 yuan/tonne, some declining by 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,770-4,780 yuan/tonne; Rizhao offer 4,820 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,740 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,720 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders stop to quote). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,190-6,300 yuan/tonne with low turnover, some up 30-50 yuan/tonne (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-170; Fujian stops to quote). Weekly crush for soybean is possible to tough 1.8 Mln tonnes or above in the event that soybean arrivals reach 16.8 Mln tonnes during August-to-September period. As thus, growing soybean oil production together with protracted oil auction by State Reserves Bureau will limit upward potentials for rapeseed oil prices. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways narrowly tracking futures, and is expected to rise mildly after peak stockpiling for small-packing oils. Buyers thereby had better make proper replenishment and maintain cautious if chase high bids. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, most domestic corn prices steadily where some price up. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some further up 6-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,760 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne from yesterday, and 1,715-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,700 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,820-1,840 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Some Shangdong businesses again revise up corn buying prices on a small scale seeing supply cuts, and traders otherwise show support for corn offers. Supply tensions for high-quality corn and demand for goods replenishment do underpin corn performance on the market. Yet, 8 Mln tonnes of corn available for auction each week and early corn supplying in mid-to-late August will add supply to corn markets. In general, corn in the near term is to trade sideways narrowly when fragile corn demand in end users and overt bearish fundamentals weigh down corn market. Worthy of noticing, North China and the Northeast partially are experiencing heavy rains these days, yet both heavy rains and high temperature may hurt corn yield when corn is in crucial period of pollination in some northeastern areas. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports price up steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,160 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, and 2,270 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, up 10 yuan/tonne; Nantong 2,050 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 2,050 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,950 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,330 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,430 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum with a rise of 30; Shandong 2,500 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,700 yuan/tonne; Qiqihar 2,700 yuan/tonne; Chifeng 2,900 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Hinggan League 2,700 yuan/tonne, Changchun in Jilin 2,740 yuan/tonne). Barley price at ports maintain stable amid some rises (Shandong offers 1,910-1,920 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,930 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,840 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be sharply curtailed given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, whilst costs for Australian sorghum also remain high for the present. On the other hand, wineries at home will restart operation in mid-to-late August, as thus, another round of stockpiling will come on the market. That good fundamentals thereby lead to strong will for higher offers among importers. Given high costs for barley and sorghum underpin grain market, grain shorter term will mainly go on a strong note. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.83)