Today is 04/26/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on August 10th

2018-08-10 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on August 10th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans in overnight trading edged down since profit taking and long positions closing went ahead of USDA report updates. Accordingly, meals on DCE today hold back rises and trade sideways narrowly, in the meantime, soybean meal spots price up steadily though turnover turns light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,170 to 3,290 yuan/tonne, some a rise of 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,220 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,150-3,220 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,210-3,250 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,250-3,290 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,250-3,270 yuan/tonne). Amid heating-up trade tensions with the US, soybean meal spots on China's market today extend slight rises in part as worrisome forward soybean sources, vested raised import costs by RMB devaluation and mounting signs of weather speculation for US soybean growth greatly win crushers' support for meal prices. Whereas, market calculates Supply & Demand Estimates updated by USDA tonight will go bullish, that is, either yield or stocks will be largely raised. As it is, soybean meal keeps growing in stocks backed by increasing soybean processing in mills, add to that, China has approved imports of soybean meal from Argentine. Yet such heavy stockpiles can not be consumed impressively when low raising of live pigs do cut meal demand in end users. Generally speaking, soybean meal overall is to trend up if factored in persisting fundamental pressure, fund speculation and bullish domestic market. Wisely, buyers had better not chase high bids too far but stay on the sideline or make replenishment upon price declines. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: imported rapeseed meal prices go steady, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,480-2,580 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,500 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan 2,580 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,540 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed meal performance in the after market though is promising, thanks to recovered demand in aquatic raising and raised import costs amid increasing RMB flows, possibly bearish Supply & Demand Estimates tonight that US soybean production and stocks will be substantially revised up by USDA may otherwise weigh down oil performance. In this case, buyers may as well be alert against risks after rallies in rapeseed meal, that is, make replenishment upon bargain buying rather than chase high bids too far. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 47,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 47,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Price variation of fishmeal at present is capped as holders prefer to take wait-and-see attitudes toward market and to support goods offers seeing limited stock pressure at ports and raised import costs driven up by RMB devaluation. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,450-3,900 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrivals in July actually settles at 7.9681 Mln tonnes with total 125 vessels, yet 8.48 Mln tonnes are expected in August, and 8 Mln tonnes expected in September. Such ample supply weighs down imported soybeans. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported soybeans also undermines price competitiveness imported soybeans, and limited delivery further weighs down imported soybeans for distribution. However, as the US administration is resolved to levy additional 25% tariffs on $ 16 billion of Chinese goods from August 23rd, raised soybean costs and unexpected weather conditions for US soybean growth thereby win crushers support for prices as well as give favorable support to imported soybeans. On the whole, imported soybeans in the short run will probably trade down amid trade fights, but later may go up on the market. 

    Daily review on oils: since market expects US soybean production is probably revised upward in USDA report, long positions closing and profit taking among market players then sunk US soybeans in overnight trading. Accordingly, oils on DCE today mostly trade down though only soybean oil picks up in front-month contracts. Given the escalated trade relationship supports domestic market in its current form, crushers take the chance to support goods offers amid fund speculation in full swing. As a result, soybean oil spots mostly price up on the domestic market together with some palm oil, yet turnover is not much as it is. Actually, there is still limited upward potentials for oil prices factored in growing soybean oil stockpiles based on raised soybean crush, ongoing auction by State Reserves Bureau and accumulating stockpiles of palm oil in Southeast Asia. Yet on the other hand, such factors may be favorable for oil market as increased import costs for soybeans amid RMB depreciation, the start-up of stockpiling and China's decision to cut soybean meal usage. Taken all into consideration, oils shorter term are to trade sideways in line with futures and are likely to trend up. Buyers for the moment had better stay on the sideline for USDA report is expected to be bearish tonight. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,580-5,700 yuan/tonne, most up 10-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,560-5,580 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,600 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,700 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,600-5,620 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,780 and 4,850 yuan/tonne, some up 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,840 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,850 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,780 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao and Xiamen traders stop to quote). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: prices for imported rapeseed oil rise, where prices in coastal areas are 6,260-6,450 yuan/tonne with low turnover, up 20-30 yuan/tonne (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-170; Fujian stops to quote). Albeit rapeseed oil is bolstered by raised import costs amid large RMB flows, improving operation rate in rapeseed-processing mills, ongoing oil auction and accumulating stockpiles of palm oil in Southeast Asia otherwise limit rallies in rapeseed oil prices amid overall oil gluts. On this point, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways narrowly with strong momentum for growth, and wisely, buyers are recommended to stay on the sideline or take hand-to-mouth purchases for USDA report is expected to be bearish tonight. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, though some vibrate slightly. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,760 yuan/tonne, and 1,715-1,720 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,700 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong settle at 1,840 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Corn supply is now growing on the market given ongoing auction of old corn reserved and supplying of early Spring corn in the South. Yet fundamental pressure still weighs down corn performance in regardless of operating rate falls in deep processors. As it is, corn performance is capped especially when low livestock raising and sufficient stocks in most feed businesses dampen market buying. However, costs for old corn reserved and rigid market demand for high-quality corn in its tight supply still limit downward potential for corn prices. Overall, corn in the near term is to trade sideways steadily and narrowly. By the way, corn mature may benefit from scattered rains in south-central northeast these days when drought is somehow eased, however new corn growth may subject to natural disasters like flood in some North China.  

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: prices for imported sorghum at ports go up steadily (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,160 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, and 2,270 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Nantong 2,050-2,080 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 2,080 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,000 yuan/tonne, up 50. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,430 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qingdao 2,400 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, and 2,500 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,700 yuan/tonne; Qiqihar 2,700 yuan/tonne; Chifeng 2,900 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Hinggan League 2,620 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,700 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Changchun in Jilin 2,740 yuan/tonne). Barley prices at ports go steadily (Shandong offers 1,910-1,920 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,840 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang 1,910-1,920 yuan/tonne). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be sharply curtailed given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, whilst costs for Australian sorghum also remain high for the present. On the other hand, wineries at home will restart operation in mid-to-late August, as thus, another round of stockpiling will come on the market. That good fundamentals thereby lead to strong will for higher offers among importers in case of unavailable low costs for grain sources. Therefore sorghum and barley shorter term will mainly go on a strong note, though fragile demand in barley weighs on barley market and results in a weaker performance than sorghum's. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.85)