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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on Aug. 13th, 2018

2018-08-13 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on Aug. 13th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: since production and stocks of US soybean were significantly raised by USDA this year even to a record high, US soybeans on CBOT last Friday slumped by nearly 5% in response. Accordingly, meals on DCE today trade down largely and soybean meal spots at home also price down. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,080 to 3,220 yuan/tonne, a drop of 30-70 yuan/tonne against last Friday (Tianjin prices 3,200 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,080-3,200 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,170-3,180 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,200-3,220 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,200-3,220 yuan/tonne). Soybean meal spots are now under recession attributed to fundamental pressure, bearish USDA report as expected and technical overbuying, and that fundamental pressure persists since general meal demand in end users due to low live pig raising fails to cut heavy stockpiles. However, haunted by the trade war with the US, costs of soybean arrivals at China's ports are driven up by deficient soybean sources onward and protracted RMB devaluation, furthermore, US soybean futures are also expected to pick up with hot spell in US Midwest recently. That is to say, as long as trade spats and worries about soybean sources in the 4th quarter go forward, soybean meal is not to fall largely, but to trend up overall amid crushers' support for goods offers. In this way, buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment upon lower and stable prices and maintain a safe inventory level. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: imported rapeseed meal prices down today, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,460-2,500 yuan/tonne, down 20-40 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,480 yuan/tonne, down 20; Shenheng in Dongguan 1901+50; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,500 yuan/tonne, down 40). Rapeseed meal in South China last week was cut to 30,000 tonnes by 22% on the week in stockpiles when it was the right time for aquatic raising, additionally, possibly soybean import cuts this year also put rapeseed meal on a bullish stance in the after market. Notably, China's decision to cut soybean meal with protein in feed ingredient among feed sectors and raised import costs of soybeans amid RMB depreciation are probable to sink China's imports of soybeans the first time in years. Generally speaking, rapeseed meal is likely to rebound after short-lived oscillations, therefore buyers are recommended to make proper replenishment upon lower and stable prices. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 47,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 48,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Based on fairly good demand and raised import costs amid protracted RMB devaluation, hoarders stay on the sideline and show support for fishmeal offers, price variation of fishmeal is thus seen capped. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for imported soybeans drop steadily, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,500-3,950 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from last Friday and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. Haunted by trade conflicts with the US, costs of soybean arrivals at China's ports are driven up by deficient soybean sources onward and protracted RMB devaluation. Furthermore, hot spell in US Midwest recently and importers' strong wills to support offers may also give favorable support to imported soybeans According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrivals in July actually settles at 7.9681 Mln tonnes with total 125 vessels, yet 8.48 Mln tonnes are expected in August, and 8 Mln tonnes expected in September. Such ample supply weighs down imported soybeans. On the whole, imported soybeans for distribution in the short run will probably trade sideways narrowly and steadily the time market supply & demand balance struggles in trade spats. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybean on CBOT last Friday slumped by nearly 5% after its production and stocks were largely revised upward by USDA this year even to a record high. Accordingly, oils on DCE today trade down and some soybean oil and palm oil at home also price down by 30-50 yuan/tonne. Overall turnover is not much though lower prices do attract some deals. Oils on the market though pare gains in line with futures, and still bear the pressure from raising oilseeds crush in the next two weeks, ongoing oil auction by State Reserves and growing palm oil production in Southeast Asia. Yet, under great RMB devaluation to 6.88 versus US dollar in escalating trade tensions, falling oilseeds crush last week to 1.71 Mln tonnes and upward costs for import soybean arrivals at ports give support to oil performance. In addition, as stockpiling in the run-up to holidays starts and China is to cut soybean meal usage, oils at home and abroad have resistance to fall. Shorter term, oils are to edge down tracking futures and probably to ramp up with oscillation afterwards, if such, buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment upon lower and stable prices. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,580-5,770 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,570, Rizhao traders 5,570 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,650 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,580 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,780 and 4,860 yuan/tonne, some down 30-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,850-4,860 yuan/tonne, a drop of 30 yuan/tonne; Rizhao offer P01; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,830 yuan/tonne, a decline of 40 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,780 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,880 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,190-6,350 yuan/tonne with low turnover, down 50-70 yuan/tonne (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-170; Fujian stops to quote). Albeit growing stockpiles to 500,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week, ongoing oil auction and accumulating stockpiles of palm oil in Southeast Asia drag down rapeseed oil performance amid overall oil gluts, be that as it may, rapeseed oil is otherwise bolstered by raised import costs after large RMB flows amid trade spats with Washington. To be sure, after short-lived declines, rapeseed oil is expected to trade up when stockpiling starts in the run-up to Chinese holidays, as such, buyers had better make replenishment upon lower and stable prices. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices edge low steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, most down 6-20 yuan/tonne from last Friday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,760 yuan/tonne, and 1,715-1,725 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,730-1,740 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn; 1,700 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), basically being flat contrasting with last week. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,840 yuan/tonne from last Friday. With ample supply of old corn reserved at hand, traders show great enthusiasm in corn shipments. And though early new corn is to put into market in mid-to-late August in Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and Shandong provinces, slack demand in feedlots and more cautious spot purchasing among deep processors in North China for a safe inventory level still weigh down corn performance-- corn buying prices down by 6-20 yuan/tonne in recent days. Nevertheless, underpinned costs for old corn reserved and tight high-quality corn in supply still limit downward potential for corn prices. Overall, corn in the near term is to trade sideways steadily and narrowly.  

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: prices for imported sorghum at ports go steady (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,160 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, and 2,270 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Nantong 2,050-2,080 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 2,080 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,000 yuan/tonne, up 50. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,430 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qingdao 2,400 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, and 2,500 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum a tad lower: Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,700 yuan/tonne; Qiqihar 2,700 yuan/tonne; Chifeng 2,860 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, down 40; Hinggan League 2,620 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,700 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Changchun in Jilin 2,740 yuan/tonne). Barley at ports prices up steadily (Shandong offers 1,910-1,920 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,910-1,920 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,840 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang 1,940 yuan/tonne, up 20). Sorghum sourced from the U.S. on domestic market later may be sharply curtailed given intensifying trade tensions between the world two largest economies, whilst costs for Australian sorghum also remain high for the present. On the other hand, wineries at home will restart operation in mid-to-late August, as thus, another round of stockpiling will come on the market. That good fundamentals thereby lead to strong will for higher offers among importers in case of unavailable low costs for grain sources. Therefore sorghum and barley shorter term will mainly go on a strong note. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.88)