Cofeed News: edible palm oil at China’s ports this week ended Aug. 17th is pegged at 466,000 tonnes in stocks, a further decline of 34,000 tonnes from 500,000 tonnes last week, and contrasting with 538,900 tonnes the corresponding week last month (week 29), it is also down 72,900 tonnes by 13.5%. Nonetheless, vis-a-vis 281,500 tonnes the prior year, it is otherwise up 184,500 tonnes by 65.5%. Whilst stocks of industrial palm oil come into at 77,700 tonnes, up 7,000 tonnes by 9.9% from 70,700 tonnes attained last week.

 

    Owing to delayed palm oil arrivals, SGS data show that China imports 58,300 tonnes of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of August, down 4,825 tonnes from 63,125 in week 29. Therefore edible palm oil stocks at ports are seen falling below 500,000 tonnes, especially at Guangdong ports with relatively tight sources. As Malaysia revises its September export tariffs to zero, analysts calculate China’s imports of palm oil will fall below expectations in August and go above in September when some importers are to put off shipments previously in late August. Estimated imports of palm oil in September are around 0.45-0.50 Mln tonnes (0.33-0.34 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.16 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), up 0.03 Mln tonnes from last estimate; and basically 0.50-0.52 Mln tonnes in October (0.38-0.40 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), up 0.03 Mln tonnes from last estimate. Vessel buying for October imports continues countered in import margins, but price gap between soybean oil and palm oil is again expanded to 798 yuan/tonne this week, up 38 yuan/tonne from last week’s 760 yuan/tonne. As such, turnover of palm oil domestically this week goes poorer after buyers’ enthusiasm in buying is dampened, in detail, traded volume of palm oil this week slips to 8,300 tonnes as compared to 11,200 tonnes last week. All in all, supply of palm oil will be generally assured.

                              Figure: Comparison of domestic palm oil stocks in recent years

    Estimated imports of palm oil are shown as follows: August: 0.47-0.48 Mln tonnes (0.34-0.35 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil); September: 0.45-0.50 Mln tonnes (0.33-0.34 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.16 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil); October: 0.50-0.52 Mln tonnes (0.38-0.40 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), up 0.03 Mln tonnes from last estimate. Arrivals of palm oil may change with the market and shipping schedule, therefore information will be updated according to latest shipments and possible defaults.