Today (on Aug. 24th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: due to little progress in China-the US talk and bumper harvest of US soybean, last night US soybean continued to end down. Today meals on DCE go on to fall after a rise, followed by soybean meal spot goods, so the turnover is low. The contagious African swine fever (ASF) expands to other provinces, causing pig farmers to sell live hogs intensively and shrink soybean meal demands, while stock pressure of soybean meals reemerges under extraordinary/ excess/overwhelming soybean crush volumes. Besides, some areas like Shandong are rush in deliveries, so soybean meal spot goods continue to decline under such pressure. However, trade war is far form over since no practical progress was made on yesterday's talk, meanwhile, import cost is climbing due to devaluation potential of RMB (currently to 6.88) and oil mills is supporting prices, so soybean meal spot goods will have more resistance to fall than futures. Short-term soybean meals may move sideways with futures due to bumper harvest of US soybean and contagious ASF, but there may be no slump before the end of trade war. And any marked rise will depend on duration of trade war. Buyers can just wait and buy on a hand-to-mouth basis.  

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: imported rapeseed meal prices edge down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,440-2,530 yuan/tonne, down 10-30 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,470 yuan/tonne, down 30; Chinatex in Zhanjiang 2,560 yuan/tonne Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian stops to quote). Meal futures these days show a dramatic drop after speculative money outflows with market confidence hit by sprawling ASF. What further weighs down futures is that stocks of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are large built on overwhelmingly high operation rate in mills. However in effect, rapeseed meal spot prices shorter term will not fall significantly, but trade sideways frequently provided if the trade war continues. Feed mills revise up rapeseed meal proportion in feed ingredient after price disparity between it and its rival soybean meal expands, additionally, import costs are seen higher and higher after RMB devaluation amid trade tensions. Such being the case, buyers had better stay on the sidelines and make replenishment upon low prices. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,200 yuan/tonne; 11,400-11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,700-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,200 yuan/tonne; 11,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 48,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 47,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. In view of stable futures outside China's market and robust market demand, holders now prefer to stay on the sideline and support fishmeal bids. That also puts curbs on price variations. 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,500-3,970 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 8.479 Mln tonnes with total 133 vessels in August, 8.5 Mln tonnes expected in September, and 7.6 Mln tonnes projected in October. Such ample supply of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported soybeans also undermines price competitiveness imported soybeans, and limited delivery also puts bearish pressure on imported soybeans for distribution. Nonetheless, trade war is probable to drag on since no practical progress was made on yesterday's talk, under which RMB depreciates to 6.88. Such depreciation sends import costs high and leads to importers' strong mindset for high bids. On the whole, imported soybeans for distribution in the short run will probably trade sideways narrowly and steadily the time market supply & demand balance struggles in trade spats. 

    Daily review on oils: China-US talks toward trade issues ended yesterday turned out to go nowhere, with tit-for-tat tariffs effective as proposed on $16 Bln of goods for each side, under which futures on CBOT last night fell down further when US soybeans are expected to enjoy a bumper harvest. By contrast, soybean oil on DCE today rebounds fractionally and palm oil otherwise edges down, whist most soybean oil spots rise and palm oil goes stable in price, exposing oil futures to frequent oscillations. Turnover is not much after buyers maintain cautious about market involvement. Oils rebound mildly today and are to go uptrend in spite of oscillations on the bottom. Amid the trade war, elevated import costs after RMB depreciation, stockpiling for packing oils under way and probably tight soybean sources in the 4th quarter give strong support to oil performance. However, bearish fundamentals still put curbs on oil rises and expose oils to frequent oscillations in the near term, in detail, fundamentals like high stocks of soybean oil and rapeseed oil, ongoing auctions of State Reserve Bureau, and expected 2 Mln tonnes of high crush in the next two weeks hover above oil market. With all considered, buyers are recommended to make proper replenishment at lows rather than chase high bids over the top. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,640-5,750 yuan/tonnes, up 10-50 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,670-5,690 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,640 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiaang traders 5,750 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders Y1901-180 or Y1901-170). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,850 and 4,910 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,900-4,910 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,850 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,880 yuan/tonne; Rizhao and Xiamen traders stop to quote). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: prices for imported rapeseed oil ramp up in a steady pace, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,370-6,550 yuan/tonne with low turnover, some up 10-20 yuan/tonne (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1901-350; Fujian stops to quote). Overwhelming fundamentals weigh on rapeseed oil, with pressure from projected national auction and high stockpiles of soybean oil (1.61 Mln tonnes) and rapeseed oil (0.53 Mln tonnes). Add to that, some traders wind down oil purchases amid great uncertainties in China-US trade conflicts, consequently leaving rapeseed oil in dull trade. As thus, rapeseed oil shorter term is likely to trade sideways frequently in line with futures. Yet as trade truce is hard to reach in a short time, rapeseed oil overall will trend up amid oscillations underpinned by elevated import costs, unexpected weather conditions for US soybean and crushers' bid support, though oil rises may still be capped on the top. Buyers thereby had better make replenishment upon low prices or simply take a wait-and-see attitude towards market. 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices are stable amid some rises. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly keep flat at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, but some increase by 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,760-1,790 yuan/tonne for drying corn of year 2017, and 1,750 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L) for old corn, up 20. While natuarally drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,760 yuan/tonne, up 10 from yesterday; 1,710-1,720 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), up 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong settle at 1,880 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Given traded volume and price for corn auctioned pick up, market participants now bode well for corn market. Meantime, increased goods replenishment in the period and market rigid demand for high-quality corn in its tight supply also favors corn prices, where prices at southern and norther coastal ports rise by 10-20 yuan/tonne today. Yet, there are also limited upward potentials for corn prices factored in sufficiently ample supply but slack market demand. To be specific, corn auction goes forward with projected 8 Mln tonnes on Aug. 30th-31st and new corn will be harvested and put into market since this September, and for another, sprawling ASF hurt corn feed demand in pig industry. For all this, corn prices shorter term will go stable with good momentum for growth, by the way, market attention should still be fixed on turnover of corn auctioned and demand in downstream businesses. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: prices for imported sorghum at ports further maintain stable (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,160 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, and 2,270 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Nantong 2,090 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 2,130 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,050 yuan/tonne. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,360 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,460 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qingdao 2,400 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, and 2,500 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Changchun in Jilin 2,640 yuan/tonne; Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,600 yuan/tonne; Qiqihar 2,600 yuan/tonne; Chifeng 2,780 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Hinggan League 2,560 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,640 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum). Barley prices at ports edge up (Australian barley: Shandong offers 1,970-1,980 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-2,010 yuan/tonne, up 10; Guangdong 1,900 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang stops to quote. Franch barley: Guangdong 1,830-1,850 yuan/tonne). Yet, sorghum sourced from the U.S. on China's market later may be sharply curtailed, whilst costs for Australian sorghum also remain high for the present. That leads to strong willingness for higher offers among importers in case of unavailable low costs for grain sources. Raising corn prices these two days boost market confidence, and sorghum and barley shorter term will mainly go strong.