Soybean: overall soybean crush remains high at 1.9 Mln tonnes though the operation rate is seen a tad lower due to machine overhaul in some mills. As thus, imported soybean stocks in China’s main coastal areas in week 34 ended Aug. 24th shrink to 6,742,700 tonnes, about 349,300 tonnes and 4.93% less than 7,092,000 tonnes attained last week, but still 18.13% higher than 5,707,600 tonnes year on year. Generally speaking, soybean rises in stocks are probably narrowed given less soybean arrivals at ports amid falling oilseed crushing in the next two week.

    Soybean meal: soybean meal production decreases after lowered soybean crush in mills, and good turnover for soybean meal spots helps to consume the stocks. Till Aug. 24th, total stocks in costal major areas are shriveled to 1,223,400 tonnes, down 40,600 tonnes by 3.21% contrasting with 1,264,000 tonnes last week, yet up 22.74% as compared to 996,700 tonnes year on year. On grounds that oilseed crush in the next two weeks increases, 1.88 Mln tonnes expected in week 35 next week and 1.9 Mln tonnes estimated in week 36, soybean meal stocks are probable to go down next week helped by elevated meal demand in aquaculture.

    Soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts decrease further as turnover for forward contracts turns out to be few. Till Aug. 24th, amounts in coastal main areas have been cut to 5,152,500 tones, down 771,100 tonnes by 13.01% from 5,923,600 tonnes last week, yet still up 14.91% as compared to 4,483,800 tonnes year on year. 

                            Figure 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

                        Figure 2: Chin’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

                 Figure 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years