Cofeed News: edible palm oil at China’s ports this week ended Aug. 24th is cut to 403,400 tonnes in stocks, a further drop of 62,600 tonnes from 466,000 tonnes last week, and vis-a-vis 532,800 tonnes the corresponding week last month (week 30), it is also down 129,400 tonnes by 24.3%. Nonetheless, contrasting with 306,000 tonnes the prior year, it is otherwise up 97,400 tonnes by 31.8%. Whilst stocks of industrial palm oil settle at 73,200 tonnes, about 4,500 tonnes and 5.8% below 77,700 tonnes attained last week.

    Two main reasons account for falling edible palm oil stocks this week: one, overall arrivals of palm oil in August are few in number due to delayed shipments, and the other, demand for palm oil goes better these days, and especially Guangzhou port is tight in supply. Yet Malaysia revises its September export tariffs to zero, analysts calculate China’s imports of palm oil will fall below expectations in August and go above in September when some importers are to put off shipments previously in late August. Estimated imports of palm oil in September are around 0.45-0.50 Mln tonnes (0.33-0.34 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.16 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil). Turnover of palm oil in the near term will continue to be made countered in import margins, where about 13 vessels of palm oil have been successfully traded in recent two week with most shipments in October and November. And during October-to-November period, alternative palm oil for soybean oil will be seen narrowed, if such, supply of palm oil will be generally assured later.

                      Figure: Comparison of domestic palm oil stocks in recent years

    Due to delayed shipments, estimated imports of palm oil are shown as follows: August: 0.42 Mln tonnes (0.30 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), down 0.05 Mln tonnes from last estimate; September: 0.45-0.51 Mln tonnes (0.33-0.35 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.16 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil); October: 0.50-0.52 Mln tonnes (0.38-0.40 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil); November: 0.47 Mln tonnes (0.35 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil). Arrivals of palm oil may change with the market and shipping schedule, therefore information will be updated according to latest shipments and possible defaults.