Today (on September 7th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: both US soybean and meals on CBOT experience a mild rise, yet rallying soybean meal spots accordingly fail to boost turnover though spots upon low prices do attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,160 to 3,240 yuan/tonne, some up10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,210 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,160-3,220 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,180-3,220 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,220-3,240 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,220-3,240 yuan/tonne). Attracted by good margins, poultry raisers now expand their meal consumption. That good meal demand and noticeably lowered operation rate in East China and some North China in recent days help to alleviate stock pressure on soybean meal. Add to that, trade disputes with the US are hard to be resolved in a very short time, instead, tensions are expected to heat up when US administration is said to slap another $ 200 billion on Chinese imports. If such, market expects a big soybean shortage during December and January next year, where only 4.5 Mln tonnes of soybeans are estimated for December arrivals. Under such circumstance, soybean meal spots today edge up in price tracking futures when crushers still seize meal prices, and generally, soybean meal will maintain its uptrend overall before the end of trade disputes with the US. On the other hand, US soybean now bears the pressure from good harvest outlook and paralyzed exports in China, additionally, soybean meal on China's market to some extent is capped in demand as contagious ASF detected in China hurts live pig raising. Buyers thereby had better stay on the sidelines if having stocks at hand rather than chase high bids too far. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: prices move sideways in a steady pace, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,390-2,480 yuan/tonne, down10-20 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenghai offers 2,400 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan 2,480 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian stops to quote). Given contagious ASF accelerates its spreads, heavy soybean and rapeseed meal in stockpiles amid bumper US soybean harvest to come stumble rapeseed meal and even weigh it down. Nevertheless, as price disparity between rapeseed meal and its rival soybean meal goes larger, robust aquatic farming and poultry consumption before Chinese holidays actually boost rapeseed meal demand. Add to that, possible supply shortage of soybean during December and January next year under escalating trade conflicts also help to underpin rapeseed meal. In general, rapeseed meal is mainly to move sideways frequently and narrowly in line with futures, and go on a relatively strong note unless trade spats are concluded, so buyers may as well make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.  

    Daily review on fishmeal: prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,200 yuan/tonne; 11,400-11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,700-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,700 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,700 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 53,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 52,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. In view of stable futures outside China's market and good market demand, holders now prefer to stay on the sideline when domestic fishmeal is also in robust trade. That also puts curbs on price variations. 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,680-3,980 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrivals in August actually settle at 7.923 Mln tonnes with total 126 vessels, about 1.37% higher than 7.8156 Mln tonnes in last August, and 7.372 Mln tonnes with 116 vessels expected in September. Such ample supply weighs down imported soybeans. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported soybeans also undermines price competitiveness imported soybeans, and limited delivery also puts bearish pressure on imported soybeans for distribution. Amid lingering trade conflicts with the US, Chinese RMB is thrown into long-term devaluation. What's worrying is that soybean supplies to China in the fourth quarter possibly fall short as soybeans sourced from Brazil draw to an end. Traditionally, it is golden time for US soybean imports during October and February next year, in this way, China's buyers are probable to import some US soybean despite its high prices when soybeans run low. Importers now show strong mindset for soybean bids in case of unavailable soybeans later. On the whole, imported soybeans for distribution in the short run will probably trade sideways narrowly and steadily the time market supply & demand balance struggles in trade spats. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybean edged up in overnight trade, oils on DCE today by contrast pare gains. Accordingly, most soybean oil and palm oil spots come down amid low turnover. The trade war between China and the US would drag on if the US administration is soon to tax $200 billions of Chinese goods, under which bumper harvest largely expected by Informa unveils a weak US soybean to be after the leading business intelligence revises US soybean yield up to 52.9 bushels by 2.9 bu. For another, overwhelming oil supply still put curbs on oil upward potentials and even throw oils into a downturn. Specifically, national auction keeps on regardless that soybean oil now stay above 1.6 Mln tonnes and stockpiling for packing oil draws to an end in mid-and-late September. However, a possibly large gap in soybean supply from December to January amid trade conflicts have contributed to better turnover upon far-month basis despite crushers' support for bids. On this point, oil prices shorter term are not to fall a lot, but to maintain proper uptrend as long as the trade war continues, and buyers thereby had better stay on the sidelines, or take the chance to make replenishment upon low prices. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,670-5,780 yuan/tonne, most down 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,690-5,700 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,670 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,780 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,760-5,780 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,840 and 4,950 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,880-4,890 yuan/tonne, a drop of 20; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,900 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20; Guangzhou 4,840 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,920-4,930 yuan/tonne; Rizhao stops to quote). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: prices for imported rapeseed oil run steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,420-6,540 yuan/tonne (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240 for basis; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1901-280; Fujian stops to quote). Amid trade disputes, estimated soybean shortage from December to January in year 2019 and high import costs bolster rapeseed oil in price. In addition, rapeseed oil is also underpinned when Canada expects a lower production this year for canola. Yet, assured by sufficient soybean oil and rapeseed oil in stocks and high operation rate in mills, oils shorter term are forecast to move sideways tracking futures. Rapeseed oil accordingly is to maintain its mild uptrend, but one should also be aware of its capped upward space when the US administration is to threat $200 billion of Chinese imports with additional tariffs. 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable though some are a tad lower. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,860-1,960 yuan/tonne, some further down 4-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,770-1,790 yuan/tonne for drying corn of year 2017, 1,810 yuan/tonne for corn prices with volume weight over 720g/L, 1,760 yuan/tonne for old corn, 1,400 yuan/tonne for new corn of year 2018 with 30% moisture. While naturally drying corn prices at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,770-1,780 yuan/tonne; 1,740-1,760 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 700 g/L), unchanged from yesterday. Second-class corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,890-1,900 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Given new corn is expected to cut in production, a wave of corn stockpiling is now thriving on the market, with traded volumes and prices yesterday hit a two-month high. Boosted by market rigid demand, corn these days in northeastern corn belt and at southern, northern and coastal ports all go strong in price amid marketers' bullish stance and traders' mindset to hold onto goods for higher prices. However, temporary reserved grain auctions remain unchanged in speed, with 8 Mln tonnes under the hammer every week. Add to that, new corn supplying in mid-to-late September from south to north and live pig raising vulnerable to ASF are unfavorable to corn feed demand. For all these, short-term corn price is predicted to go steady with strong momentum for growth. By the way, new corn will enter the market massively in mid-to-late September, then under the supply pressure, corn may come off early highs. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: prices for imported sorghum at ports keep firm (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,170-2,180 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, and 2,280-2,290 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Nantong 2,110-2,120 yuan/tonne, up 20; Shanghai 2,120-2,130 yuan/tonne, Guangdong 2020-2,030. Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,340-2,360 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum and 2,240-2,460 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Qingdao 2,400 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, and 2,500 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum; Shanghai 2,400 yuan/tonne. Domestic sorghum: Changchun in Jilin 2,600 yuan/tonne; Daqing in Heilongjiang offer 2,560 yuan/tonne; Qiqihar 2,500 yuan/tonne; Chifeng 2,640-2,660 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum, down 40; Hinggan League 2,460-2,500 yuan/tonne for raw sorghum, and 2,560 yuan/tonne for dried sorghum). Barley prices at ports also keep stable (Australian barley: Shandong offers 2,020 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,990-2,010 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 1,920 yuan/tonne. French barley: 1,850-1,860 yuan/tonne. Ukrainian barley: 1,850 yuan/tonne). Yet, sorghum sourced from the US is now sharply cut under trade spats and its stockpiles reach low at ports-- sorghum July imports reach the nadir in year 2018, whilst costs for Australian sorghum also remain record high due to drought there. That leads to strong willingness for higher offers among importers in case of unavailable low costs for grain sources. And as barley and sorghum generally lose their price advantage over corn market amid sprawling ASF, slack feed demand pushes down sorghum prices at some ports. Shorter term, grains are mainly to move sideways steadily and slightly, in this way, market participants can wait for latest market news for guidance.