Cofeed News: edible palm oil at China’s ports this week ended Sept. 7th amounts to 463,700 tonnes, up 32,800 tonnes from 430,900 tonnes last week, and up 127,400 tonnes from 336,300 tonnes year on year by 37.9%. Nonetheless, as compared to 527,300 tonnes the corresponding week last month (week 32), it is still down 63,600 tonnes by 12.1%. Whilst stocks of industrial palm oil come into at 75,000 tonnes, about 3,400 tonnes and 4.7% higher than 71,600 tonnes attained last week.

    Price disparity between soybean oil and palm oil further expands to 836 yuan/tonne, about 31 yuan/tonne higher than 805 yuan/tonne attained last week till Friday. With only 4,050 tonnes of palm oil traded versus 8,200 tonnes last week, slack turnover this week suggests buyers little interest in market purchases, in this way, edible palm oil further piles up to 463,700 tonnes in stocks amid increasing goods arrivals this week. 

    Whereas, palm oil sourced from Malaysia show a spike after its export tariff is reduced to zero in September. According to cargo survey agency ITS, Malaysian exports of palm oil during Sept 1st to 10th increase substantially by 63.1%, where around 49,200 tonnes are exported to China, surprisingly up 32,500 tonnes from 16,700 tonnes on the month. As some shipments scheduled in August is delayed to September, estimated imports in September are now around 0.35-0.37 Mln tonnes for 24-degree palm oil. When it turns cold, alternative palm oil for soybean oil is to be scaled back, if such, supply of palm oil will be generally assured and stockpiles will pile up.

                                           Figure: China’s palm oil stocks in recent years

    According to Cofeed, estimated imports of palm oil are shown as follows: August: 0.37-0.40 Mln tonnes (0.25-0.27 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil); September: 0.47-0.50 Mln tonnes (0.35-0.37 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), up 0.02 Mln tonnes from last estimates; October: 0.47-0.48 Mln tonnes (0.34-0.35 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), down 0.03 Mln tonnes from last estimates; November: 0.47-0.49 Mln tonnes (0.35-0.36 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.12-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), unchanged from last estimates. Arrivals of palm oil may change with the market and shipping schedule, therefore information will be updated according to latest shipments and possible defaults.