Daily Review on Meal Market in China

2018-09-11 www.cofeed.com

Today ( Sept. 11th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: Meals continue to rise on DCE today, but at a slower pace. Soybean meal sees a turnover reduction after its price increase steadily. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,220 to 3,300 yuan/tonne, a steady rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin 3,290, Shandong 3,220-3,300, Jiangsu 3,280-3,300, Dongguan 3,280-3,300, Guangxi 3,260-3,300). Buyers are cautious in chasing prices higher since the freeze injury has not damaged main planted areas of soybean. And spot price of soybean meal is restricted in upward speed as its transactions turn gloomy after a higher open, reflecting the market atmosphere after another African swine fever broke out in Anhui yesterday. But consumption in poultry has been increasing before double holidays, and soybean crush volume continues its three consecutive week’s fall to 1.7 Mln tonne last week, driving soybean meal stock into a falling state, with the stock in coastal area falling to 1.02 Mln tonnes by a weekly decline of 14%. Therefore, oil mills are waiting for bullish later marker and inclined to support prices, especially as the soybean volume arriving at port from November to January falls far below the previous year under trade disputes. On the whole, soybean meal price is more likely to see increases before the end of trade war. And there may be some fluctuations on DCE since the USDA’s report tomorrow night is predicted to further increase US soybean’s output and its stock. Buyers can just wait at the moment.

Cottonseed meal: Today meals show a slow rise on DCE, followed by spot price of soybean meal to increase by 10-20. Cottonseed meal stays stable since meal demands may be cut down by contagious African swine fever. But cottonseed meal market is still supported by the worrisome long-term soybean supply under escalating trade disputes and limited cottonseed meal supply under increasing consumption in poultry before double holidays. On the whole, cottonseed market is predicted to extend its upward trend despite some fluctuations before new cottonseed meal floods into market, and buyers shall make replenishment on the dips.

Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal edge up steadily, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,420-2,500 yuan/tonne with a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang offers 2,420; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,480; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 1901+120 upon basis). Regardless, robust aquatic farming and poultry consumption before Chinese two holidays boost rapeseed meal demand, and meantime, falling stocks to 33,000 tonnes in coastal areas by 22% also show a big promise later in rapeseed meal market amid the trade. Yet contagious ASF still curbs upward potentials for rapeseed meal prices, with another one case detected in Tongling, Anhui province, such being the case, buyers may as well stay on the sidelines and take expected bearish USDA report on Wednesday night for guidance.

Imported fishmeal: Prices for imported fishmeal steadily pick up and are negotiable upon transaction, whilst shipments at ports are fairly good. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne and 11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, up 200 from yesterday; 11,900-12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, up 100 from yesterday. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,700 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu 53,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 53,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) outside China's market remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Good delivery and less fishmeal arrivals at ports help hoarders to hold onto goods for higher prices, especially when there is limited stock pressure on fishmeal. In this way, fishmeal is to maintain stable with strong momentum for growth shorter term.

(USD $1=CNY 6.87)

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