Today ( Sept. 12th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Last night, US soybean price fell down, so do meals on DCE today, followed by spot prices of domestic soybean meal to fall steadily, yet with negligible trading volume. US soybean is 68% in G/E crop rating, higher than last week’s 66% and last year’s 60% during the same period. Since USDA’s report tonight is predicted to further increase US soybean’s output and its stock forecasts, US soybean may extend its weak position, even to a low harvest of 800 cents later. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,200 to 3,300 yuan/tonne, a steady fall of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin 3,280, Shandong 3,200-3,300, Jiangsu 3,280-3,300, Dongguan 3,280-3,300, Guangxi 3,290-3,300). And as contagious African swine fever exerts negative influence on the market and prevents hog farmers from enlarging live pigs, demand on soybean is reducing. So spot prices of soybean may become stagnant and have some callbacks. On a conference in Beijing yesterday, CCCFNA (China Chamber of Commerce of Foodstuffs and Native Produce) pointed out oil mills should make full preparation for a protracted trade war and replace soybean meal by mixed meals like Ukrainian sunflower meal and Canadian rapeseed meal, and mentioned that soybean meal imports from other countries like India may be available. But due to rising consumption in poultry and aquatic products and a constant reducing soybean crush volume, soybean meal stocks suffer a three-consecutive-week fall to 1.02 Mln tonnes by a weekly decline of 14%. What’s more, later supply of soybean may become short, while mixed meal is unable to replace the soybean market completely; therefore, oil mills hold positive toward later market and are supporting the price, which lessens the possibility for soybean meal to have callbacks. On the whole, soybean meal will maintain its upward trend in fluctuations before the end of trade disputes.Besides, USDA’s report tonight may be bearish to forecast. Buyers can just wait.
Cottonseed meal: cottonseed meal prices increase 50-100 partially due to its limited volume and tight supply under an inadequate forward soybean supply caused by the escalating trade disputes and the increasing consumption in poultry before double holidays. But its upward speed is restricted by weak demands under contagious African swine fever and the small fall soybean meal spots by 10-20 today. On the whole, cottonseed market is predicted to extend its upward trend despite some fluctuations before new cottonseed meal floods into market, and buyers shall make replenishment on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal fluctuate in a steady pace, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,430 to 2,500 yuan/tonne with a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang offers 2,440, up 20; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,490; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 1901+120 upon basis). With Pearl River Delta affiliated to tropical storm “Mangkhut”, market consumption for rapeseed meal is seen dwindling, besides, contagious ASF to hurt meal demand later still curbs upward potentials for rapeseed meal prices. Yet enlarged price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal actually expand consumption of rapeseed meal, additionally, possibly short supply of soybeans during November and January next year amid trade worries also lead to a bullish stance for rapeseed meal. In other words, rapeseed meal shows resistance to fall and is to trend up as long as trade conflicts persist. By the way, buyers may as well stay on the sidelines for market expects a bearish USDA report tonight.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, performing well in port shipment generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 11,900-12,000 yuan/tonne. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,700 yuan/tonne; 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content.Stocks at port: Huangpu 53,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 2,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chile ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,610 USD/tonne. Firm foreign markets and intensive hoarding ports for fishmeal encourage traders to support the price, so short-term market may keep stable and firm.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
