Today ( Sept. 13th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Last night USDA’s report is bearish to market as expected, but US government sent an invitation to Chinese officials for a new round of trade talks, which boosted US soybean to rise instead of falling. But the trade talk is bad to domestic market, so meals on DCE today tumble, followed by spot prices of soybean meal to fall by 20-50, seeing a small trading volume. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,150 to 3,270 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin 3,230, Shandong 3,150-3,270, Jiangsu 3,210-3,270, Dongguan 3,270-3,280, Guangxi 3,240-3,270). Soybean meal demand is being crippled by a smaller number of live hogs under the contagious African swine fever, on the contrary, mixed meal demand is increasing due to lower prices; therefore, spot price of soybean meal will face callbacks in a short term. But price dropping range of soybean meal spots is obviously smaller than that of futures, since oil mills are positive towards later market and are inclined to support prices when the trade war is predicted to be a protracted one and forward soybean supply will be short. But there are still uncertainties on when the trade talk will begin and what it will bring, so before that, soybean meal may adjust with fluctuations. And its short-term adjustments cannot reverse the overall upward trend in fluctuations as long as the trade war continues. Buyers can wait for a steady fall and make appropriate replenishment on the dips.
Cottonseed meal: The bearish results in USDA’s report and upcoming US- China trade talks pull down meals on DCE at a wide range, followed by spot prices of soybean meal to drop 20-50. Cottonseed meal today stays stagnant and stable, due to its own small demand and the contagious African swine fever. But its market still get supported from its own tight supply since the trade war will not end in a short term. On the whole, cottonseed market is predicted to extend its upward trend in fluctuations before new cottonseed meal floods into market, and buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal come down, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,400 to 2,470 yuan/tonne, down 20-30 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang offers 2,440, unchanged; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,470, down 20; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 1901+120 upon basis). Market consumption for rapeseed meal is seen shrunken when aquaculture is tortured by devastating typhoon, besides rapeseed meal is to wane in price shorter term provided if contagious ASF cuts meal demand later. Yet enlarged price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal actually expand consumption of rapeseed meal, additionally, nagging concerns over soybean shortage during November and January next year amid trade disputes also prop up rapeseed meal. In other words, rapeseed meal is to trend up overall as long as trade conflicts persist. By the way, buyers may as well stand on the sidelines and make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, performing well in port shipment generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 11,900-12,000 yuan/tonne. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 53,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chile ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,610 USD/tonne. Short-term market may keep stable and firm under small stocks, preferable demands and firm foreign markets.
(USD $1=CNY 6.85)
