Today ( Sept. 14th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,680-3,980 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. Such ample supply and high stockpiles of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported ones undermines price competitiveness of imported soybeans, and limited delivery also puts bearish pressure on imported soybeans available for distribution. Subject to trade disputes with the US, blocked imports of US soybeans and basically finished soybean sales in Brazil after November may contribute to lower-than-usual soybean arrivals during November and January next year. If such, forward soybean supply will be tight especially in the 4th quarter when Brazilian soybeans are sold out. That also leads to crushers' strong wills to soybean bids. On the whole, imported soybeans for distribution in the short run will probably trade sideways narrowly and steadily the time market supply & demand balance struggles in trade spats.
Cottonseed: Futures performance on DCE is relatively weak, which is bad to cottonseed oil and meal markets, coupled by unsatisfactory crush margins, lower quality of old cottonseed than ever and oil mills' unwilling to purchase washy new cottonseed, so cottonseed price falls by 0.02 partially. But its market is still stable, cottonseed volumes from Xinjiang is lessened by inconvenient transportation and increasing transportation fee. In the short term, cottonseed price may see slight changes, and only those at high prices will suffer some callback risks.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean closed lower in overnight session after Trump said there was no pressure to work out agreements with China toward trade issues, under such circumstance, oils on DCE today trade narrowly sideways. Oil spots at home mostly revise early declines to a steady level amid price volatility in part. In spite of as high as 1.59 Mln tonnes of soybean oil in stocks, stockpiling for packing oil nearly comes to an end in its peak period. Yet, attracted by import margins in soybean oil, Chinese buyers are expected to expand their imports later, if things go as expected, oil performance is mainly to move sideways narrowly amid such oil gluts. On the other hand, there are ideas in the marketplace that US-China trade woes are hard to strike a deal in such a short time even with bilateral talks going on. In other words, a noticeable soybean shortage will be presented for November through Chinese Spring Festival period, on this point, oils overall are to fluctuate upward mildly rather than face a drastic decline when crushers also firmly grasp goods prices. As thus, buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy and pile up stockpiles upon low and stable prices.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,680-5,830 yuan/tonne, few up 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,710-5,720 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,680 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,830 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders Y1901-100).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 4,800 to 4,880 yuan/tonne, some down 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,860-4,870 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 4,880 yuan/tonne, keeping flat; Guangzhou traders 4,800 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,900 tonne/tonne; Rizhao traders stop to report).
Imported rapeseed oil: Prices for imported rapeseed oil pick up, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,450-6,590 yuan/tonne, up 20-30 yuan/tonne (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1901-240; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1901-250; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian stops to quote). Amid trade woes with the US, possible soybean shortage in the long run props up rapeseed oil in price, but hefty oil supply otherwise stumbles rapeseed oil. Specially, operation rate in the next two weeks is to lift regardless of finishing oil stockpiling ahead of Chinese two holidays. For all these, when trade conflicts go forward, rapeseed oil overall will fluctuate upward frequently though still with restrictions on the top, such being the case, buyers had better stay on the sidelines.
Cottonseed oil: The slim hope in ending trade disputes slows down the declining speed of soybean oil price on DCE, while some spot prices of soybean oil even increase by 10-20. Cottonseed oil price stays stable today due to its tighter supply especially under the forward soybean supply shortage caused by trade war. But its price is hard to soar due to its small blending volume under the oversupply of staple oils and the soon-to-be-finished stockpiling before holidays. On the whole, cottonseed oil will maintain its steady price in fluctuations in the short run.
(USD $1=CNY 6.85)