Today ( Sept. 17th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows: 

 

    Imported soybean: Prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,680-3,980 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. Such ample supply and high stockpiles of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported ones undermines price competitiveness of imported soybeans, and limited delivery also puts bearish pressure on imported soybeans available for distribution. According to foreign media, Trump administration is projected to slap tariffs on 200 Bln US dollars of Chinese goods as early as this week. Once seen as certain, China will not be present at the trade talk later this month. Subject to trade disputes with the US, blocked imports of US soybeans and basically finished soybean sales in Brazil after November may contribute to lower-than-usual soybean arrivals during November and January next year. If such, forward soybean supply will be tight especially in the 4th quarter. That also leads to crushers' strong wills to soybean bids. On the whole, imported soybeans for distribution in the short run will probably trade sideways narrowly and steadily the time market supply & demand balance struggles in trade spats. 

    Cottonseed: Cottonseed price falls by 0.01 yuan/kg partially today due to low ending demands, dismal crush margins in cottonseed oil mills, lower quality of old cottonseed than ever, and oil mills' negative attitudes towards purchasing washy new cottonseed. But its market is still stable, cottonseed volumes from Xinjiang is lessened by inconvenient transportation and increasing transportation fee. In the short term, cottonseed price may mostly keep stable, and only those at high prices will suffer risks of small callbacks. 

   

    Summary: According to foreign media, Trump administration is projected to slap tariffs on 200 Bln US dollars of Chinese goods as early as this week. Once seen as certain, China will not be present at the trade talk later this month. On this point, US soybean last Friday came down in trading, oils on DCE today also move sideways, yet showing resilience to fall. Domestically, soybean oil and palm oil spots fluctuate steadily in price, with not much turnover on the market. To be honest, heavy soybean oil supply still weighs down oil performance in the near term. Specifically, soybean oil in stocks are about to pile up given high soybean crush last week to 1.85 Mln tonnes and possibly increased imports later due to its good import margins, yet demand for oil struggles and goes impressively poorer when stockpiling ahead of two Chinese holidays basically draws to an end. That being said, oils shorter term will not show a steep decline in price, but to trade sideways narrowly amid crushers' support and expected large soybean shortage onwards. Provided if the trade war with the US persists, oils overall are to maintain its uptrend, thereby buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy. 

    Soybean oil: Main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,690-5,820 yuan/tonne, some a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,710-5,720, Rizhao traders 5,690, Zhangjiagang traders 5,820, Guangzhou traders Y1901-100). 

    Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,810 and 4,880 yuan/tonne, some a variation of 10-20 (Tianjin traders offer 4,840-4,850, down 10; Rizhao offer 4,880, down 10; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,860; Guangzhou 4,810; Xiamen 4,880 yuan/tonne, down 20). 

    Imported rapeseed oil: Prices for imported rapeseed oil edge up steadily, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 6,450-6,600 yuan/tonne with a rise of 10 yuan/tonne (Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong 1901-240 yuan/tonne; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1901-250 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to quote). Falling stockpiles last week to 0.14 Mln tonnes in South China by 2% and to 0.36 Mln tonnes in East China stoked rapeseed oil performance. Amid trade woes with the US, possibly impressive soybean shortage for December through January next year also props up rapeseed oil in price, but hefty oil supply otherwise stumbles rapeseed oil. Specially, oils overall in stockpiles remain high in spite of finishing oil stockpiling ahead of Chinese two holidays. For all these, when trade conflicts go forward, rapeseed oil will mildly fluctuate upward though still with restrictions on the top. 

    Cottonseed oil: Trade war might be escalated as US might impose tariffs on USD 200 Bln commodities from China this week, so oils on DCE rebound slightly today, followed by spot prices of soybean oil to go up with fluctuations at 10-20. Cottonseed oil price remains stable today for its tight supply under supply shortage of forward soybean caused by trade disputes. But cottonseed oil price is hard to soar at present under the oversupply of staple oils and the end of stockpiling before holidays at large. On the whole, cottonseed oil price will keep stable in fluctuations in the short run.