Today ( Sept. 18th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,680-3,980 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. Such ample supply and high stockpiles of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported ones undermines price competitiveness of imported soybeans, and limited delivery also puts bearish pressure on imported soybeans available for distribution. According to foreign media, Trump administration is projected to slap tariffs on 200 Bln US dollars of Chinese goods as early as this week. Once seen as certain, China will not be present at the trade talk later this month. Subject to trade disputes with the US, blocked imports of US soybeans and basically finished soybean sales in Brazil after November may contribute to lower-than-usual soybean arrivals during November and January next year. If such, forward soybean supply will be tight especially in the 4th quarter. That also leads to crushers' strong wills to soybean bids. On the whole, imported soybeans for distribution in the short run will probably trade sideways narrowly and steadily the time market supply & demand balance struggles in trade spats.
Cottonseed: Today, cottonseed sees some rises of 0.01-0.02 yuan/kg, ascribed to the escalating tensions, the already tight cottonseed supply in mainland China, and oil mills’ difficulty in procurement under the rainfalls in some areas, coupled by traffic tensions and increasing transportation fee from Xinjiang to mainland China. But the rise is constrained by its own small ending demand, declining cottonseed oil price, weak upward trend of cottonseed meal and the caution of oil mills in purchasing under unfavorable crush margin of cottonseed. Overall, short-term cottonseed price is predicted to have narrow fluctuations.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean closed overnight trading lower after an additional tariff on $ 200 Bln of Chinese goods took effect on 24th, September in Trump announcement. By contrast, oils on DCE today move downward under arbitrage of buying meals and selling oils, accordingly, palm oil and some soybean oil spots come down yet are stagnant in trade. To be honest, heavy soybean oil supply still hover above oil performance in the near term. Specifically, soybean oil builds up into more than 1.59 Mln tonnes in stockpiles after high soybean crush last week to 1.85 Mln tonnes nationwide, additionally, good import margins will also lead to more soybean oil imports later, yet demand for oils struggles and goes impressively poorer when stockpiling for packing oil basically draws to an end. That is to say, even though escalating trade tensions bolster both oils and meals, fragile fundamentals pale oil performance and throw oils into a range-bound session. Generally, oils shorter term will not show a steep decline in price, but to trend up when trade tensions expose China to large soybean shortage onwards. Buyers are suggested to stay on the sidelines and make proper replenishment only when prices go steady and low.
Soybean oil: Main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,700-5,810 yuan/tonne, some down 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,720-5,730 yuan/tonne, Rizhao 5,700, Zhangjiagang Y1901-30, Guangzhou traders Y1901-110 or Y1901-100).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,720 and 4,810 yuan/tonne, most down 30-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,800-4,810 yuan/tonne, down 40; Rizhao stops to quote; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,790 yuan/tonne, down 60; Guangzhou 4,720 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,850 yuan/tonne, down 30).
Imported rapeseed oil: Prices for imported rapeseed oil move sideways in a steady pace, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 6,430-6,680 yuan/tonne with a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne (Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers 1901-240, Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong 1901-240; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1901-260 upon basis). Oil stockpiling ahead of Chinese holidays is about to finish, yet oil supply at home remains high-- soybean oil at round 1.59 Mln tonnes and rapeseed oil at 0.52 Mln tonnes though rapeseed oil is a tad lower these two weeks. Under such circumstances, rapeseed oil is to keep narrowly range-bound. Yet amid trade woes with the US, nagging concerns over soybean shortage onwards and largely expected reduction of Canada's new-season canola in production prop up rapeseed oil to go strong. Specially, oils overall in stockpiles remain high in spite of finishing oil stockpiling ahead of Chinese two holidays. For all these, when trade conflicts go forward, rapeseed oil will mildly fluctuate upward though still with restrictions on the top.
Cottonseed oil: Soybean oil on DCE today sees falls in fluctuations, and spot price of soybean oil falls by 10-20 partially. Cottonseed oil also sees some falls of 30-100 due to its own weakened demand for the end of stockpiling before festivals and the oversupply of staple oils. But US president’s declaration of additional tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports is bullish to China’s oil market, and cottonseed oil is also tightened in supply, so its price shrinkage is also limited. Buyers can just wait and see.
