Today ( Sept. 19th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows: 

    Oilseeds:

   Imported soybean: Prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,680-3,980 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. Such ample supply and high stockpiles of imported soybeans no doubt will further inflict on the market. Narrowed price gap between domestic soybeans and imported ones undermines price competitiveness of imported soybeans, and limited delivery also puts bearish pressure on imported soybeans available for distribution. Subject to escalating trade disputes with the US, blocked imports of US soybeans and basically finished soybean sales in Brazil after November may contribute to lower-than-usual soybean arrivals during November and January next year. If such, forward soybean supply will be tight especially in the 4th quarter when Brazilian soybeans are sold out. That also leads to crushers' strong wills to soybean bids. On the whole, imported soybeans for distribution in the short run will probably trade sideways narrowly and steadily the time market supply & demand balance struggles in trade spats.

    Cottonseed: Today, cottonseed sees some rises of 0.01-0.02 yuan/kg, ascribed to the escalating tensions, the already tight cottonseed supply in mainland China, and oil mills’ difficulty in procurement under the rainfalls in some areas, coupled by traffic tensions and increasing transportation fee from Xinjiang to mainland China. But the rise is constrained by its own low ending demand, declining cottonseed oil price, weak upward trend of cottonseed meal and the caution of oil mills in purchasing under thin margin from cottonseed crush. Overall, short-term cottonseed price is predicted to have narrow fluctuations.

    Oils:

    Summary: US soybean in overnight trading once tumbled to a ten-year low for record-high US soybean production struggled in escalating trade tensions, when the State Council announced to impose a 5% to 10% tariff on $60 billion of US products. Oils on DCE today pare gains vulnerable to arbitrage of buying meals and selling oils, whilst soybean oil and palm oil spots come down in price amid not much turnover. Soybean oil now grows in stocks after recovered soybean crush, additionally, good import margins at around 170 yuan/tonne will also lead to more soybean oil imports later. Yet demand for oils struggles when stockpiling for packing oil basically near the end slows down its delivery pace. That is to say, heavy soybean oil supply together with more palm oil arrivals recently still hovers above oil performance in the near term. Generally, oils shorter term will not show a steep decline in price, but to keep strong later on market when escalating trade tensions expose China to large soybean shortage onwards. Buyers are suggested to stay on the sidelines and make proper replenishment only when prices go steady and low.

    Soybean oil: Main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,650-5,730 yuan/tonne, down 30-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,660-5,670 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,650 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,730 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders Y1901-100 or Y1901-80).

   Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,670 and 4,760 yuan/tonne, most down 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,750-4,760 yuan/tonne, down 50; Rizhao stops to quote; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,760 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,670 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 4,800 yuan/tonne, down 50).

    Imported rapeseed oil: Prices for imported rapeseed oil face a steep decline, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 6,250-6480 yuan/tonne, down 60-100 yuan/tonne (Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian stops to quote, Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong 1901-350; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1901-260 upon basis). Oil stockpiling ahead of Chinese holidays is about to finish, yet oil supply at home remains high-- palm oil steps up its arrivals at ports and soybean oil and rapeseed oil keep growing amid elevated operation rate. Under such circumstances, oil performance is weakened especially when meals are more bolstered by crushers amid elevated trade tension, rapeseed oil accordingly is possible to move downward narrowly. Yet amid trade woes with the US, nagging concerns over soybean shortage onwards still prop up rapeseed oil to go strong.

    Cottonseed oil: Today oils on DCE continue to fall back in response to the interest arbitrage tactic of buying meals and selling oils, followed by spot price of soybean oil to reduce by 30-50. Cottonseed oil also extends its falls by 20 partially due to its own weakened demand at the end of stockpiling before festivals and the oversupply of staple oils. But the escalating trade spats is bullish for domestic oil market, so there is little space for cottonseed oil price to go down, especially amid its limited supply and under-priced status quo. Buyers can just wait and see.