Today ( Sept. 21st), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Last night, US soybean extended its rises. Today meals on DCE also edge up. And soybean meal also increase in cash price, with few deals clinched. Currently, the demand from poultry and aquaculture is fairly good, pushing soybean meal stock to continue its fall. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,270 to 3,330 yuan/tonne, up 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin 3,320, Shandong 3,270-3,320, Jiangsu 3,300-3,330, Dongguan 3,300-3,340, Guangxi 3,300-3,320). Forward soybean supply may be tightened pending the further escalating US and China trade disputes, so buyers find forward-month basis more palatable, driving forward-month basis of soybean meal to see high volume yesterday. Besides, oil mills are still inclined to support prices; therefore, soybean meal price will remain its overall upward trend in fluctuation before trade war ends. However, the contagious African swine fever is bearish to soybean meal consumption, before which Chinese government has encouraged to use feed with low soybean ratio. In addition, soybean meal has widened its price difference from mixed meal, which may increase the demand for the later. And buyers have begun to offset later supply shortage. Besides, market dropped a message that there would be more vessels boarded with soybean from Argentina to China, while Argentine buyers would buy US soybean for their own local crush. Thanks to a new trade pattern triggered by trade war, China’s soybean market may see fewer supply tensions of forward soybean than expected. All in all, soybean meal will have limited potential for a bullish market and may suffer narrow fluctuations after futures in the short run. By the way, buyers shall not force up price excessively.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal fluctuate?in a steady pace, among which prices in coastal areas range from?2,440?to 2,480 yuan/tonne, some up 10-20 yuan/tonne (Fangchenggang Great Ocean offers 2,440, stable; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 2,480, stable; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian 1901+150 upon basis). Stock of oils remains heavy, especially when the demand for oils becomes smaller at the end of festival stockpiling while oil mills hasten to oil ex-warehousing. So the oversupply of oils is dragging down rapeseed oil market. However, in view of an output cut for global rapeseed, participants are bullish for later market of rapeseed oil, which is also supported by a supply gap of forward soybean over the trade dispute. On the whole, short-term rapeseed oil market is predicted to adjust slightly with narrow fluctuations, and will keep going up before trade war ends. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.
Cottonseed meal: US soybean price went up last night. Today soybean meal increases by 10-20 steadily. Due to a fair demand from poultry and aquaculture, plus its own supply tensions, cottonseed meal keeps stable in price today. But demand for cottonseed meal is not observed as replenishment of live hogs is decreased by the contagious African swine fever, so its price is still weak in surging. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price may go up in fluctuation, and buyers shall replenish for a safety stock on the dips and not to chase up prices excessively.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily, being traded with limited price negotiations but performing well in port shipment generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800-11,900 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000-12,100 yuan/tonne. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 53,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes , Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,630 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Buoyed by high quotations in foreign market and the falling stock, the market is predicted to keep firm and steady in the short run.
(USD $1=CNY 6.84)
