Today ( Sept. 25th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: China has canceled the trade talk due to be held this week in response to additional tariffs of US on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, for which US soybean went down by 9.25 cents during China’s Mid-autumn Festival. But this news is bullish to domestic market, so meals on DCE get surges after a higher open. Spot prices of domestic soybean meal also increase, among which those with small rises have a relatively large number of deals clinched and those with large rises have few. The prices in coastal areas range from 3,350 to 3,400 yuan/tonne, up 30-80 yuan/tonne against that of September 21st (Tianjin 3,350, Shandong 3,350-3,390, Jiangsu 3,350-3,380, Dongguan 3,380-3,400, Guangxi 3,350-3,380). Brazilian soybean rises upon basis and keeps high in price of arrival at port. But Brazilian soybean will see nearly no stock after November, leading to a supply shortage of forward soybean, so oil mills are positive to later market of soybean meal and inclined to prop up price, making some soybean meal prices enjoy two hikes today. But peak season of aquaculture will come to an end gradually from the South to the North as the weather cools down after the National Day, and the widening spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will increase the demand for the later. But the trend of soybean meal mainly depends on the trade war, for which it fell down largely in the mid-September due to the resumption of trade talks, but sees surges today after the cancel of trade talks, so soybean meal price will continue its upward trend in fluctuation before trade war ends, and it may suffer strong fluctuations subject to trade talks. Overall, buyers shall replenish for a safety stock on the dips and shall not chase up prices excessively.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal edge up, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,460-2,550 yuan/tonne, up 20-60 yuan/tonne (Qinzhou COFCO, Guangxi offers 2,540, up 60; Dongguan Shenheng, Guangdong 1901+110 upon basis; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian not offered). Last week, rapeseed meal stock has fallen to 29,000 tonnes by a weekly decline of 3%, amid the soybean supply shortage for November to January under trade spats. So oil mills are positive to later market and active in lifting soybean meal quotation, which enlarges price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and increases rapeseed ratio in feed formula. In general, rapeseed meal will remain its upward trend in fluctuation before trade disputes end. But demand for rapeseed meal will turn slack temporarily due to the contagious ASF and the end of double holidays. And rapeseed meal price may suffer frequent fluctuations in its upward trend due to trade talk changes, so buyers shall replenish for a safety stock on the dips and not to chase up prices excessively.
Cottonseed meal: China has canceled the trade talk due to be held this week in response to additional tariffs of US on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, which largely lifts meals on DCE today. The increase of soybean meal spots by 30-80, coupled by limited cottonseed meal supply, supports cottonseed meal to go up by 20-50 partially. But demand for cottonseed meal is not observed under the contagious African swine fever, so its price is still weak in surging. On the whole, cottonseed meal price may still trend up in the short term, so buyers can replenish for a safety stock on the dips.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily, being traded with limited price negotiations but performing well in port shipment generally. Northern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800-11,900 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000-12,100 yuan/tonne. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 54,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 51,000 tonnes , Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.
Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,630 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Totally, the high quotation in foreign market together with intensive hoarding ports in China creates a bullish market for domestic fish meal, and fish meal price may go up steadily in the short run.
(USD $1=CNY 6.86)
