Soybean: Vulnerable to typhoon Mangkhut, part of soybean shipments destined for South China last week are postponed to arrive this week. Therefore, soybean arrivals this week increase, in detail, actual 37 vessels loaded with 2,370,000 tonnes of imported soybeans arrive at China’s ports in week 38 during Sept. 15th and21st. As thus, imported soybeans in coastal key areas pile up to 7,237,000 tonnes from 7,051,900 tonnes last week in stockpiles, up 185,100 tonnes by 2.62%, and also up 42.94% from 5,062,900 tonnes year on year. Notably, soybean crush in mills is expected to come down in the following two weeks when the operation rate is lowered during Chinese holidays, to be specific, crush volumes are likely to settle at 1.9 Mln tonnes in week 39 and 1.7 Mln tonnes in week 40. Yet soybean stockpiles are not to experience a big swing provided if soybean arrivals at ports in late September are slowed down in pace.

    Soybean meal: Soybean meal further decreases in stocks given buyers engage themselves in delivery in the run-up to Chinese holidays. Till Sept. 21st, total stocks in costal major areas are down to 866,400 tonnes, about 71,500 tonnes and 7.62% less than 937,900 tonnes last week, yet stocks this week are still 3.21% higher than 839,400 tonnes the corresponding period last year. Expected lowered soybean crush in the next two weeks will probably cut soybean meal in stockpiles, but stockpiles will not fall sharply when aquatic raising gradually goes off-season after holidays.

    Soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts also see a decline this week. According to Cofeed, amounts in coastal main areas to fulfill in contracts till Sept. 21st, have been down to 5,118,000 tonnes from 5,396,900 tonnes last week, about 278,900 tonnes and 5.16% lower by comparison, but still up 24.82% contrasting with 4,100,100 tonnes year on year. 

                      Figure 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

                     Figure 2: Chin’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

              Figure 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years